New Zealand Racing, 2009-10

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ZARZUELA

3 f Zabeel - Star Satire
7 starts - 3 wins, 2 seconds
Trainer: Mark Walker
Major wins: G2 Great Northern Guineas, G3 Waikato Guineas
Odds: 2-1

Replays:
Best: Great Northern Guineas (1st): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDufBBwx5Ig
Last start: Waikato Guineas (1st): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJMqU75285M

+ Hugely talented filly getting better as race distances increase
+ Breeding says she'll love the distance - by Zabeel, sire of 3 Derby winners.

- Mark Walker is the best trainer in NZ, but hasn't won a Derby
- She's never had a horse fight back when she makes her move. Can she handle it?

Verdict: Deserves to be the favourite after her impressive wins in the Great Northern Guineas and Waikato Guineas. But she's inexperienced, and the Derby is going to be unlike anything she's faced before, while some others in the race have had G1 experience before. I think 3-1 or 4-1 would be better.