New Zealand Racing, 2009-10

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JOEY MASSINO

3 c O'Reilly - Rationable
14 starts - 5 wins, 3 seconds
Trainer: Peter McKay
Major wins: G2 Avondale Guineas, G3 Wellington Stakes
Odds: 20-1

Replays:
Best, last start: Karaka Mile (1st): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EQ_bdR-meI

+ Tough front-runner who hates letting horses pass him in the stretch
+ Four-time stakes winner.

- Failed in his only start beyond a mile, so big questions about the distance.

Verdict: One of the bravest and most determined little horses in NZ at the moment. He obviously hates losing, and will give everything he's got on Derby day. The big problem is the 2400m. But I think 20-1 is too high. I'd have him at 11-1 or 12-1.

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Will she or won't she?

http://tvnz.co.nz/othersports-news/k...status-3371675

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ZARZUELA

3 f Zabeel - Star Satire
7 starts - 3 wins, 2 seconds
Trainer: Mark Walker
Major wins: G2 Great Northern Guineas, G3 Waikato Guineas
Odds: 2-1

Replays:
Best: Great Northern Guineas (1st): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDufBBwx5Ig
Last start: Waikato Guineas (1st): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJMqU75285M

+ Hugely talented filly getting better as race distances increase
+ Breeding says she'll love the distance - by Zabeel, sire of 3 Derby winners.

- Mark Walker is the best trainer in NZ, but hasn't won a Derby
- She's never had a horse fight back when she makes her move. Can she handle it?

Verdict: Deserves to be the favourite after her impressive wins in the Great Northern Guineas and Waikato Guineas. But she's inexperienced, and the Derby is going to be unlike anything she's faced before, while some others in the race have had G1 experience before. I think 3-1 or 4-1 would be better.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

Will she or won't she?

http://tvnz.co.nz/othersports-news/k...status-3371675

Oh wow pretty exciting!

(Joey is so pretty, by the way).

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It's very exciting. I'm really starting to think she can run well in the Derby. Would be so amazing if she did.

These (and Monaco Consul) are the horses she's likely to face in the Derby. This is the field for the Championship Stakes tomorrow, which is the last big Derby prep.

1 11511 Joey Massino 5 86 56.0 Sam Spratt Peter McKay, Matamata
2 23254 Military Move 13 84 56.0 Noel Harris Shaune Ritchie, Cambridge
3 1132 Corporal Jones 2 78 56.0 Michael Coleman Andrew Scott, Matamata
4 11462 Martial Art 16 78 56.0 Vinnie Colgan Mark Walker, Matamata
5 14171 King Raedwald (AUS) 9 77 56.0 Hayden Tinsley Kevin Gray, Copper Belt Lodge, Palmerston North
6 21165 Imabayboy 17 76 56.0 Scratching Trent Busuttin, Cambridge
7 53313 Time Keeper 6 76 56.0 Andrew Calder Graeme Nicholson & Paul Allbon, Te Aroha
8 15901 Amazing Spy 8 70 56.0 Michelle Wenn Chris McNab, Cambridge
9 01273 Kullu (AUS) 4 70 56.0 Craig Grylls Stephen McKee, Ardmore
10 3129 Maciano (AUS) 7 70 56.0 Chad Ormsby John Sargent, Matamata
11 73431 The Suleiman 10 69 56.0 Matthew Cameron Robert Priscott & Clayton Chipperfield, Te Awamutu
12 44217 Bone Of Contention 14 68 56.0 Cameron Lammas Tony Pike & Mark Donoghue, Cambridge
13 18211 Zarzuela 1 85 54.5 James McDonald (a) Mark Walker, Matamata
14 1X963 Jungle Juice 12 74 54.5 Troy Harris Donna, Dean Logan & Chris Gibbs, Ruakaka
15 9311 Sirani (AUS) 15 74 54.5 Mark Du Plessis John Sargent, Matamata
16 43190 No Emotion 11 67 56.0 John Sargent, Matamata

Zarzuela is going to be hard to beat here, but I also really like Joey Massino, Corporal Jones, Maciano and King Raedwald. Should be a good race.

Imabayboy, Kilkenny and Walk Away are some Derby hopefuls running in undercard races.

[my miss storm cat]

Wow that is some field!

Confused about Bayboy... is he cross entered? (Last line of your post incase this makes no sense!)

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Yes, he was scratched from the Championship Stakes. He won the other race very easily!

Zarzuela won the Championship Stakes. Corporal Jones second, King Raedwald third. Joey Massino didn't get the distance. I'll post the replay soon.

Daffodil and Boundless also won races today.

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Championship Stakes replay: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_xJ_UH7rgI

It was another good performance by Zarzuela, and today she proved she can still win when another horse resists her big late move, but I'm starting to think she could be a bit vulnerable in the Derby. She found it much harder to beat these guys today over 2100m, compared with her easy 2000m win last time, and I'm not convinced about her with another 300m in the Derby. I still think she deserves to be the favourite, but I'm not sure the result's a foregone conclusion.

Corporal Jones is getting better with every race, and look at the way King Raedwald finished off this race. Last year's Derby winner ran 3rd in this race - it might be the same again.

And there's Katie Lee, Monaco Consul and Imabayboy as well! And Volgus (half-brother to Rios and Roman Emperor), who ran nicely in another race today and might just sneak into the Derby field.