The 3yo's are finally starting to look less horrible

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I thought Sidney's Candy looked great today crushing a moderate field in the San Vincente.
The obvious question now is how far will he go and how well will he run on dirt?

Have to see how he comes out of it. Last Summer, I thought he was more talented than L.A.L. This horse comes from a highly enhancing barn. As you might have noticed, he doesn't have a Breeders Cup Win. So, they don't do quite as well when they come under more thorough testing. So, there are actually 4 issues:

1) Durability ..hello

2) Distance

3) Synth. to Dirt

4) Trainer's ability to get horses to perform while under more extensive blood testing than routinely encountered.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The word talented shouldn't be associated with Lookin At Lucky until he proves otherwise.

I like how TVG's worst analysts are so fond of picking out a random horse that ran against two seperate horses in totally differnt types of races and comparing them as though it's some sort of conclusive measuring stick and such pesky things as race-to-race circumstances are unimportant.

For instance ... The Program was beaten 14 lengths by Sidney's Candy at Del Mar. But ... The Program was only beaten 1.5 lengths by Looking At Lucky in the Hollywood Futurity.

[tector]

It will be interesting to see what shakes out of the three races going this Saturday on dirt.

But I am really looking forward to the filly race at GP the following Saturday. Mr. Cobra Venom's filly could be any kind.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Same here.

I don't know what to make of horses like Buddy's Saint and Jackson Bend just yet.

Obviously Buddy's Saint's 2nd race was huge - but it was a performance that came while racing on a very gold rail.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The word talented shouldn't be associated with Lookin At Lucky until he proves otherwise.

Well, I only put his initials, because I know how Eastern folks reflexively respond to that individual.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Well, I only put his initials, because I know how Eastern folks reflexively respond to that individual.

He's a full blown talent of Spectacular Bid and Seattle Slew like cloth compared to Yankee Bravo.

I looked up a few old races of Sidney's Candy's 2nd dam (Exchange) ... who can forget the most dreadful creation of all ... the jockey cam! As seen at 1:23 into the following clip.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hnwiy...er_profilepage

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's a full blown talent of Spectacular Bid and Seattle Slew like cloth compared to Yankee Bravo.

I looked up a few old races of Sidney's Candy's 2nd dam (Exchange) ... who can forget the most dreadful creation of all ... the jockey cam! As seen at 1:23 into the following clip.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hnwiy...er_profilepage

Exchange was a really game filly, but not really the most talented runner of all time. I always thought of her as a Spawr juice job.

A nice juiced overachiever who could run on dirt or turf, and I think had some decent sprint races in her career.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Exchange was a really game filly, but not really the most talented runner of all time. I always thought of her as a Spawr juice job.

A nice juiced overachiever who could run on dirt or turf, and I think had some decent sprint races in her career.

Forget about talent ...

If the sire is Candy Ride and the dam sire is Storm Cat .. it's a huge plus when the 2nd dam won 15-for-30 - could go 1 1/2 miles - could run well on any surface - and was considered an iron horse.

Few pedigrees shout 'probably unsound' more than a Candy Ride to Storm Cat.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's a full blown talent of Spectacular Bid and Seattle Slew like cloth compared to Yankee Bravo.

I looked up a few old races of Sidney's Candy's 2nd dam (Exchange) ... who can forget the most dreadful creation of all ... the jockey cam! As seen at 1:23 into the following clip.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hnwiy...er_profilepage

Seems like Exchange was constantly overbet chalk. That much I remember. That was like the replacement for Paseana. She was good, but not great. Like in this race, she goes in 1:13:32, and (big surprise) she wants to hold on going 1:49 n' change. She was good enough for your purposes. Is this the best mare Candy Ride got? Is that why he was named after the owner?

[Indian Charlie]

Exchange is the 2nd dam.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Exchange is the 2nd dam.

Wow. Searching for video of 2nd dams. Now I remember the one reservation I had about this horse last Summer. Lookin' at the win last August, I remember thinking this guy had some weird action. This is another talented runner Drugs likes that wants to twirl a lasso. I know a lot of people think that's not important, but look at the head-on today. He's twirling, and his front n' back aren't really lined up. Again, a big stride is overcoming the problem. You got to wonder about durability when they're getting around the track that way. That's now a 5th issue. 10 f is a long way to run when a 3 year old is moving that way. I like the horse, but there are some things that are red signs (to me.) Then, I notice the splits today weren't fast (compared to the other races on the main.) He was alone on a moderate pace. So, it may be a little less impressive than it appears. Hey, I like the horse, and it carrying the dead owner's name, but I think ya got to tread lightly with this guy (Run-on sentence -10 BTW pts.) I'm guessing he would tire going 10f. That's my gut feeling. I mean the trainers sort of acting like he knows the horse prefers 1 turn. Guess you could counter that he wanted to make sure n' get some graded money. When you look back at these horses (like when they're late in their 3 year old year,) you notice that these trainers really did know what the horse wanted to do. They are either in a hurry to get to 2 turning, or they aren't. They are almost always right, too. Look at who won this 7f race 2 years ago.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I like how TVG's worst analysts are so fond of picking out a random horse that ran against two seperate horses in totally differnt types of races and comparing them as though it's some sort of conclusive measuring stick and such pesky things as race-to-race circumstances are unimportant.

For instance ... The Program was beaten 14 lengths by Sidney's Candy at Del Mar. But ... The Program was only beaten 1.5 lengths by Looking At Lucky in the Hollywood Futurity.

Exactly. Not like these types of analyses come even remotely close to approximately TRUE ability measuring tools; like BEYERS, for example.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Exactly. Not like these types of analyses come even remotely close to approximately TRUE ability measuring tools; like BEYERS, for example.

Yeah - being able to understand both the value of race to race circumstances and final time figures is pretty important. Not that you still don't have countless other factors that are sometimes more important than both and sometimes not important at all.

I only type so much about Beyers because they work brilliantly comparing horses many years apart, because the scale is consistant over time, and because I make my own figs on their scale.