Pinnacle Breeders Cup Classic Odds

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Think of it this way. Instead of betting $10 in this pool bet that $10 on him in the Goodwood where he'll be like 20-1. If you win then take half that $200 and bet it on him in the Classic at 12-1. If he wins you wind up winning $1,300 instead of $500 if you bet this pool. If he wins the Goodwood and loses the Classic you are still up $90. If he loses the Goodwood then you lose your $10 but can still get the 50-1 at the Classic. Most likely you'll wind up losing $10 in both the Goodwood and the Classic on a nag of a horse but isn't that better than losing it in a future bet because he gets injured?

I agree with Scav that you are looking at it in a sharp way. I don't agree with your numbers, though. I think Super Frolic will be more like 10-1 then 20-1 in the Goodwood. And if he wins it, he will be more like 5-1 than 12-1 in the BCC. Even using my numbers, it makes sense to parlay the bet as you suggested. The only way it could come out worse than the future bet would be for Super Frolic to win the Goodwood and Bernardini to NOT run in the BCC. Then SF would probably go off at less than 5-1, and you would not be getting the 50-1 of the future bet.

That last effect is not negligible. Part of the reason I liked 50-1 on Second of June is the uncertainty about whether Bernardini will run. If I was 100% sure Bernardini would run, I would probably not like SOJ at 50-1.

--Dunbar

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree with Scav that you are looking at it in a sharp way. I don't agree with your numbers, though. I think Super Frolic will be more like 10-1 then 20-1 in the Goodwood. And if he wins it, he will be more like 5-1 than 12-1 in the BCC. Even using my numbers, it makes sense to parlay the bet as you suggested. The only way it could come out worse than the future bet would be for Super Frolic to win the Goodwood and Bernardini to NOT run in the BCC. Then SF would probably go off at less than 5-1, and you would not be getting the 50-1 of the future bet.

That last effect is not negligible. Part of the reason I liked 50-1 on Second of June is the uncertainty about whether Bernardini will run. If I was 100% sure Bernardini would run, I would probably not like SOJ at 50-1.

--Dunbar

I haven't paid much attention to who is going to the Goodwood so may be off on my 20-1 estimate but figured everyone tried to beat Lava Man and let him go off at even money in the Pacific Classic so it won't happen again. Super Frolic was 10-1 there and doesn't seem any more likely to beat Lava Man this time plus Lava Man doesn't look as susceptible as he did coming off the Hollywood Gold Cup. He'll probably wind up in the middle of our estimates and go off at 15-1.