2/4: Aqueduct (P4); Golden Gate ($32k C/O)

[Kasept]

Interesting outcomes at Santa Anita as the Super High 5 carryover in the nightcap outpayed the P6 version $10,684 to $8,652. Is it easier to put 6 winners on one multi-race ticket from a total of 47 runners, or build a single race play that tabs the first 5 finishers from 9? I'm still feeling my way when it comes to the Super High 5, but the stunning accrual of more than $250,000 in the wager's pot says it has an unquestionable following.

The $4.80 winner of the nightcap was a nearly universal choice, and there were then 7-2 (My Last Tycoon), 4-1 (Quietly Waiting) and 13-2 (My Friend Bernie) 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices that all seemed to figure into any Super High 5 equation you were constructing. Indeed, $6.50 Bernie ended up second behind 3-2 Veecu, and $4.10 Quietly Waiting checked in 5th. That left 5 outsiders with prices of 15-1, 16-1, 22-1, 25-1 and 36-1 to mix, match or exclude from the play. I liked 22-1 Guadalupe Lupe well enough as an include to place her third in selections, and she finished 4th. But you needed to like 25-1 Brickyardtradition as prominantly on your play to cash as the top 5 lined up like this:

1. Veecu 1.40
2. My Friend Bernie 6.50
3. Brickyard Tradition 25.00
4. Guadalupe Lupe 22.50
5. Quietly Waiting 4.10

Even a singling of the fairly obvious winner leaves you with difficult budgetary choices. Keying the favorite with the next three public choices establishes a base for the wager that guarantees a large investment. If you only start feathering in outsiders in the show slot of the wager, you end up with a structure that probably ends up close to this:

A with (1) Strong favorite
BCD with (3) Next 3 choices in the betting
BCDEF with (4) Next 3 choices in betting plus 2 outsiders
BCDEF with (3) Next 3 choices in betting plus 2 outsiders
BCDEFGHI (5) "All" except one throwout

1x3x4x3x5 = $180

And since getting an outsider or two somewhere in the top 5 is imperitive to the kind of return you are looking for in this high risk-high reward wager, you are compelled to take a huge chance that the "E, F" inclusions you add at the show and super slots finish no better than third.

Are you better off narrowing up top and spreading more below?

A with (1) Strong favorite
BC with (2) Next 2 choices in the betting (or 2 you think most of)
BCDEFG with (5) Next 2 choices in betting plus 4 others keyed below
BCDEFG with (4)
BCDEFG (3)

1x2x5x4x3 = $120

I asked Steve Davidowitz his thoughts about the Super High 5 Wednesday on ATR, and he said he has been playing it on paper formulating conclusions, and may be writing something about it soon for DRF's Simulcast Weekly. By any measurement, the High 5 takes a special approach and serious investment. Wen you see that the kind of money that was bet into the pool yesterday on it, and the fact that it continually returns 5 digit payoffs, even without a carryover, it clearly merits consideration. But not without study and pre-planning and a concise approach.

Overall, it was a fun day starting with the Aqueduct action that was positive despite the odd result in the 6th that scuttled the P4 play. Best Value Almighty Silver's effort in the 8th was key ($21.80), as the Paulino Ortiz (!) trainee got up to trigger a $259.00 ($1) tri over Be Bullish and Dr. W. The long-time under the radar Ortiz has been on a protracted performance run with his claimers and state breds since the middle of 2009, and was already 21/4-4-1 coming into Wednesday. Entering the day, Ortiz was also winning at a 17% clip the last 90 days with an ROI of $3.88 according to Thoro-Graph Trainer Data. He's long been a favorite of mine, as ATR listeners have undoubtedly heard, since pal Jim Ortiz (no relation) pointed him out to me in the 1980's.

$32k carryover at Golden Gate today! How about that?


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-5-6-7
7: 1-2-4-6-9
8: 3-7
9: 1-6

4x5x2x2 = $80

$1 Pick 4 (1,2,7/1/3/6,7,9) Paid $109.50



GOLDEN GATE


PRE-SCRATCHES


<$100 P6 Play:

3: 2-3
4: 5-7
5: 4-5
6: 5
7: 4-5-8
8: 4-6

2x2x2x1x3x2 = 48 x $2 = $96


Good luck!
Steve

[richard burch]

aque

6: 7-6-5
7: 2-3-9
8: 8-3
9: 3-7

36$



g.g.

3: 1-2
4: 4-5
5: 5-7
6: 4-5
7: 2
8: 1-3

32$

[tigerfan]

Interesting thoughts about the Super High 5 below and on ATR yesterday.
My simple appoach is to form an opinion on the exacta and then box the 3-5 spots.
AB
AB
CDE
CDE
CDE

It is an economical play ($12) that can give you a shot if your exacta opinion is on point. Although Davidowitz's "chaos" theory on ATR yesterday really made me question my approach to the wager.

It seems as if the Super High 5 would be the preferred wager for those who don't have the bankroll to construct a reasonably priced P6 ticket. The payoff may be similar to the P6 and a reasonably priced SH5 ticket would cost much less than its P6 counterpart.

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S


6TH

1 Raging Meese Early
2 Illegal Search Early


7TH

1A Malibu Moonshine Early
5 Hedge Fund Early


9TH

7 Mustang Fever Early
9 Western Slang Early

[Kasept]

GG SCR'S


Race 3 #5 Corindi

Race 5 #4 Chatty Call

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tigerfan

Interesting thoughts about the Super High 5 below and on ATR yesterday.
My simple appoach is to form an opinion on the exacta and then box the 3-5 spots.
AB / AB / CDE / CDE / CDE

It is an economical play ($12) that can give you a shot if your exacta opinion is on point. Although Davidowitz's "chaos" theory on ATR yesterday really made me question my approach to the wager.

It seems as if the Super High 5 would be the preferred wager for those who don't have the bankroll to construct a reasonably priced P6 ticket. The payoff may be similar to the P6 and a reasonably priced SH5 ticket would cost much less than its P6 counterpart.

T/F,

I don't know... I'm getting the vibe that it's not a bet that can be successfully tackled for 'small money'. It seems like this really is working for those for whom it was brought about: the disenfranchised 'big time' superfecta players that saw their payoffs quashed by the dime increment.

[tigerfan]

Potential poll question

If given $200 to wager on either the P6 or the Super High 5, which would you choose and why? (Assuming equivalent pools)

[atolunch]

Another great job on the P4 today Steve!!

Congrats, way to keep it rolling!

Thanks, and good luck tomorrow.