Dubai Carnival 2010 Discussion

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I love the Saudis tomorrow in the Guineas trial. From what I've been told, the trial races went to the pace horses, but that could've been for a number of reasons. Pace might hold better, but I know Dettori thinks being off the pace will be best.

Betting - yeah, I'll be treading lightly for sure until we see how it plays out.

If De Kock's filly Raihana wins the 1000 Guineas prep, I will be slightly surprised. Comparing her form and times and the like to others he's had in similar situations, well, there just isn't much comparison (in my opinion). The Saudis have recency edge and quality times when comparing to other Saudi races over the same trips at those distances (yes, I've spent too much time looking at Saudi race results).

That's my take.

Don't take Raihana's form too literally. She came back quite sore on both of her starts (hence why she never raced in graded company at home) and De Kock wanted to give her a bit of time before going to Dubai. He's pretty confident that she is his best filly that he's got.

I Like the Saudi horse at the bottom of the card, with two easy wins, but I'm not convinced either race took much winning.

I'm very surprised you never gave a mention of Red Rock Canyon in race 6. I know he's not the easiest horse. He has all the ability in the world but rarely shows it on the track. However, the change of stable and change of racing, could just light him up. Remember he has finished placed in many graded races for Aidan O'Brien when used in a pacemaking role and some of that form is the best on show in this race by some distance. Not only that, but he is being allowed to race with only 54kg on his back, easily the best handicapped horse in the race, and if he decided to try his hardest, he will be very difficult to beat.

Khor Dubai was actually one of the first I discounted. The form in England isn't very good. The 3rd behind Gitano Hernando somewhat flatters him, as that rival has improved leaps and bounds since then and the win in America was very much a surprise and probably flatters him, too. Khor Dubai was often seen in very moderate nurserys and handicaps on the AW, where one or two were often too good. The step up in distance is also against the horse, and I'd be very surpised if Khor Dubai was good enough here against some good handicappers and graded placed horses.

However, a very good read (as always) on your website, I agree with you regarding Star Crowned, who is always seen at his best when kept fresh. However, the Godolphin pair from Australia could be a class above the field if on-song?

Good luck.

[PatCummings]

I think Khor Dubai's biggest issue is the distance - otherwise, Gitano Hernando didn't improve "leaps and bounds" since then - he won a single race. I think it helps his form. I'm not overwhelmed by any in that race.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I think Khor Dubai's biggest issue is the distance - otherwise, Gitano Hernando didn't improve "leaps and bounds" since then - he won a single race. I think it helps his form. I'm not overwhelmed by any in that race.

Gitano Hernando was over about 60-70% fit that day, so he did improve a lot after that, and he was given an exceptional ride at Santa Anita when he was far from expected to win. Cesare disappointed badly in the race on the AW, and an unfit Gitano Hernando benefited.

If you've got it right, I'll hold my hands up, but with proven good level handicappers and group horses in that race, I cannot see anything but Khor Dubai being outclassed over a distance that will already stretch him.

[PatCummings]

Could be...average field here too - so who knows. Art of War is nothing special. Question is how good the Godolphin horse goes.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Could be...average field here too - so who knows. Art of War is nothing special. Question is how good the Godolphin horse goes.

It is a real head scratcher, for sure. I've just made my selections, and I've tried to make sure the horses I have picked tend to race to the fore in their races as I think they could hold an advantage tomorrow, even if that's not the case for further days at Meydan.

The track staff are likely to air on the side of caution for the first race day and it will probably ride a fair amount slower than the dirt of Nad Al Sheba (although it wouldn't be the first time if Godolphin get their way with how the track is riding )

We shall see. I'm quite keen on Tartan Gigha, as he is usually very competitive in this sort of race, he tries hard, usally dictates his own pace and he is trained on the Tapeta surface at home, so that should hold no fears.

[brockguy]

One horse I am looking forward to seeing race is Beauchamp Xeres. While his form doesnt look too inspiring, his 3 all weather races at the end of last year may have been a few runs too many. Distance should suit and Smullen should give him a more forceful ride than Spencer or Hughes have previously.

Also on the back of his great year last year, bin Shafya will be very interesting to watch this year with his horses. All of them (with the possible exception of Cafe Racer) have a touch of class about them and Im intrigued by how Topclas will fare as he was a decent 3yo in France last year.

[PatCummings]

My personal projection, Brock, is that Bin Shafya backs up. Pop and stop. Over under on Carnival wins - 3.5

Just a thought. His local season has been awful, granted, running lesser company. Just a hunch, so to speak.