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#1
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![]() Quote:
--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#2
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![]() Slow day at work and I have read most of this thread. I have been intrigued by parlays in the past so here goes. As you will see by the amount of these picks in one night I am much less selective. I am going to try to get away from having so many $2.10 and $2.20 payoffs so that when I do hit the parlay it may be a bit more substantial. I have also come up with the arbitrary figure of stopping the parlay after 5 hits, and I also feel I should check on how much running straight show wagers on these as well would return. The odd part is I am strictly an exotics player rarely playing W/P/S or even exactas. So will put these out there to see what happens. These all are for tomorrow night start in chronological order:
ded1 hit the road lee ct1 her name is rio ct2 kizzie legacy pen4 iris proverb hou1 cromwell ct3 jewels frolic hou2 last chip ct4 beboppin betty pen6 sweet bama breeze ded5 bubbaslittlesister hou3 ww conquistador pen7 sunday prospector ded6 lonestarchamp ct6 osage county hou4 elite access pen8 bobby and bob ded7 puppysnewdaddy ct7 sky can fly hou5 all there ded8 sefapiano jr ct8 seek silver hou6 rovina ded9 cold and windswept ded10 man in command so will keep track of straight bets, look for 5 in a row, then start new 5, or start new after bustouts. I will most likely disappear from this thread if these suck or may fine tune if shows promise.
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" I may leave here empty handed, but you aren't going anywhere " |
#3
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![]() Quote:
If you compare a $100 parlay scheme, like you propose, to betting $100 on each race to show, you will end up making many fewer bets with the parlay. But for the same "X" dollars bet, it won't change your average result. The only advantage to the parlay is that you get more bang for your buck. It's good you're planning to keep track of results on every race as well as the parlay. You get a better idea of whether you're beating the track take by looking at the complete set of bets as equal bets than by the parlay results. Good luck. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#4
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![]() Thanks Dunbar,
with any bad handicapping tonight it may be a short stay. As far as keeping track of parlays and straight bets, yes with parlays you are risking less but if I see I am picking lets say 4 out of 5 but never hitting the parlay we need to see if the payoff is high enough to warrant the straight bet only or maybe as well as the parlays. It will be fun anyway.
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" I may leave here empty handed, but you aren't going anywhere " |
#5
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![]() well, hit two 5 horse parlays and did actually have 11 in a row at one time. Of the 22 picks that were left after scratches 10 horses finished first and 7 horses placed 5 were out of the money of which 4 were from Charlestown (maybe no more Charlestown). On straight bets $51.60 show return on $44 in plays. $61.20 return if you played them all to win. $62.80 return on place. So thats $7.60 show, $18.80 place, and $17.20 win in profit per $2 wagered. On the 2 parlays that were hit this was the sequence:
2.80, 2.20, 2.60, 2.40, 4.00 then 2.80, 3.80, 3.60, 2.60, 2.60 finished with a $6.00 show for the eleventh in a row plug in whatever amount you would start with to figure the parlay payoff. it comes out to a nice return, again without Charlestown even better, 7 winners and 7 place out of 15 picks, but with still good so it was fun and showed a nice profit too for this night, the first $100 show parlay would return profit of $380.40, the second was profit of $708.60. believe it or not mathematically the 10 horse parlay would have returned about $8000 on a $100 starting wager but obviously due to pool size and bet effects you could never start with this large of a bet amount
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" I may leave here empty handed, but you aren't going anywhere " Last edited by MISTERGEE : 01-22-2010 at 09:26 AM. |
#6
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![]() Bet #2 in current round: Rachel Alexandra to show $105 (FairGrounds)
--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#7
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![]() Quote:
--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |