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#1
09-24-2006, 08:43 AM
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I don't think it was all McKee's fault, this is the second time that LR has run off like that, I don't know why he does it sometimes and sometimes not, he's kind of a strange horse. I think Rupert has the right idea any time you ask the horse he's go go go and no tractibility. He should have won that race yesterday, but he went too fast too early and maybe he's a little distance challenged to go that fast that early and win at a distance. Take nothing away from Strong Contender, he's a nice horse and he did what he should to win...I think both LR and SC ran very good races yesterday, there was a ton of lengths back to the other horses...When I saw that SC had that big Beyer, I thought that was inflated, but the Sheets gave him a -3 for that race, that's Bernardini-like. I am really curious to see what the #'s will be coming out of this race, because I think they will be respectable for both of them. Point Determined is not as good of a horse as LR or SC, but he's not that bad, he had to get hurt...I see no reason why both should not go on to the BC and they'll have plenty of time between races, I give both of them a big chance to run 2-3 in the BC...
Congrats Gander, I know you said you were loading up on SC, I made my first bet since the opening week of the Spa, keyed LR in a super, it was a small bet on my part, so no big loss. You said you were going big and when I saw SC getting to LR, I actually started cheering him on... And to whoever said that LR should try turf, you might want to open up a Racing Form and look at his pp's.... 
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#2
09-24-2006, 09:53 AM
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it's not mckee's fault he was rank and headstrong....but i think the general consensus is that if he's going to run off like that, don't sap his energy by making him fight you. he may have had enough left to fight off strong contender if mckee had just faced facts...
maybe next time he needs to keep ron behind horses, don't let him see an opening early on. hell, i don't know! he's got the ability, he sure didn't want to let contender by there at the end.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#3
09-24-2006, 10:36 AM
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Backtrack to February 1971. Whittingham has this promising colt who had come up from the Chile the previous summer and had won several nice races, and placed in a couple others, coming from off the pace. The Bald Eagle and his main man Shoemaker were finding their best strategy was to drop him out completely early and make a big looping move on the far turn. Today is the San Marcos H at 10f on the turf; Cougar II is the highweight and favorite. But when they spring from the gate, The Big Cat decides to throw out the script. He goes straight to the front and the Shoe wisely decides to humor him. He was 2 lengths in front the first time they went under the wire and 6 lengths in front the second time (the one that counted). His Felinity never did it again, I suppose because he had proved to his jock who was in control.
Moral of the story: Adjusting the plan to fit the horse's mood and race conditions works better than trying to force the horse to fit the plan. The ablility to make that kind of judgment on the fly is the difference between a top jock and a hard-working, consciencious midlevel jock like McKee.
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#5
09-24-2006, 10:48 AM
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He's definetely not a better horse, he only won by a little less than a length, not exactly a pounding, LR took the worst of it, but that's on him, it wasn't SC's fault that he won, they're both about the same talent level, not much seperates them...
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#6
09-24-2006, 11:09 AM
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I will mention one thing that seperates them, it is that some people refuse to acknowledge no matter how many times he proves it, that LR is a very good and possibly G1 type horse...If you are a LR fan, yesterday was nothing but a confirmation that he's a very good horse, that needs to learn to rate...
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#7
09-25-2006, 01:04 PM
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#8
09-24-2006, 11:17 AM
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Strange that they seem to have been able to rate him in some races usually against lesser competition, but not others. Why is that? In the Saint Louis race maybe it was just rust being his first off layoff, but he was also rateable
in the Southwest. Anybody know what his beyer was? I think he had to run a bigger one that the Arkansas Derby. Yesterday's race was about 3 seconds faster, I think.
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#9
09-24-2006, 11:51 AM
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this horse is 6-8 lenghts faster if they could get a jock to do some work with him in the mornings and get him to relax.
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#10
09-24-2006, 11:05 AM
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#11
09-24-2006, 11:07 AM
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#12
09-24-2006, 12:38 PM
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__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#13
09-24-2006, 02:09 PM
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Trying not to be too critical, But Lawyer Ron will need to be carrying an oxygen tank instead of a rider to make it a step past 1 1/8 miles. He will be solid at 1 - 1 1/16, and may beat lesser at 1 1/8, but 1 1/4 is beyond this horse's ability.
If he runs in the Classic, he's not much more than a pace factor for the big boys.
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#14
09-24-2006, 02:43 PM
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#16
09-24-2006, 07:24 PM
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Its just an opinion. I have no need to justify it. My impression is that this horse will be fine up to 1 1/8 miles, but I don't believe he can get the extra 1/8th mile at this time. If they ran him in the BC, its "my opinion" that he can't get the distance with the big horses. And conversely,using your logic, he has not shown anything to suggest that he can get the distance.The Derby may be a "throwout", but the FACT of the matter is he has tried it once and was hammered.
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