Republican Senator in Massachusetts?

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Riot

Desperation? I don't care if he was a Cosmo centerfold. Now he wants to be famous by being a politician instead. Not unusual.

Coakley is certainly no Kennedy. Unimpressive. Brown is the typical mindless yapper of "conservative values" with no substance. Neither one can fill Kennedy's shoes. It would be a "lesser of two evils" vote for me.

It will all come down to what the weather is Tuesday - a minority party turnout outgunned 3-1 by a majority party that may or may not care who is in that seat. I do think the minority turnout will be there, the majority won't bother, and I suspect Brown will barely win.

If she loses, it's not that big a deal on a national level. At least not how the news orgs are framing this. Healthcare reform will still pass easily.

I think the GOP are making a huge mistake to make this a national issue "If she loses, it reflects negatively on Obama and healthcare" - because if she wins, they'll have to eat that in a terrible way.

i'm on your side but i think this analysis is off. it's a no lose for republicans. dems are spending money on a race they shouldn't have to.

republican's frame this as a referendum on obama and healthcare because there's no downside to that argument. if coakley eeks out a win, wednesday morning the headline is "massachusetts almost elected a republican", not "america endorses obama".

we're better off dealing in political realities and not repeating bush's error of exaggerating narrow victories into imagined political capital.

on the other hand, unlike you i think coakley's still more likely to pull off a too narrow win than actually lose.

if she doesn't, i'll change my opinion that healthcare is a lose/lose for democrats but it's a lesser loss pushing it through to accepting that the country isn't ready for this.

[Riot]

]i'm on your side but i think this analysis is off. it's a no lose for republicans. dems are spending money on a race they shouldn't have to.

republican's frame this as a referendum on obama and healthcare because there's no downside to that argument.

Yeah, I can see that. It will be interesting to see who wins.

I completely agree, the GOP going far right is it's death. Not that the true "anti-government" tea-bag types want anything to do with the GOP, however, no matter how much Michael Steele tries to suck up to them and pretend they are friends.

The interesting thing is that "movement" has already been co-opted by multiple claims from different "Tea Party" orgs, and is suffering from so much infighting I don't know if it will survive to even the 2010 elections.

Their big convention in Nashville (that Palin is to speak at) - they are overcharging so "grass roots" folks can't attend, it's turned out to be a "for profit" event (???), a major co-sponsor already dropped out - I predict it will be a big party that ends up with few attendees.

[joeydb]

The Red Tsunami is coming this November to a voting electorate near you...

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by joeydb

The Red Tsunami is coming this November to a voting electorate near you...

SOP for mid term elections

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by joeydb

The Red Tsunami is coming this November to a voting electorate near you...

i'd be careful projecting too far into the future. it would be great for republican's if the mid-terms were held today. but there's only 1 seat.

i think 9 months from now republican's will pick up seats but not as many as you think. it'll depend on the economy though. if unemployement is still around 10% with no signs of improving, it'll be ugly for the dem's.

more likely the economy is doing a little better by then and the out of power party picks up a few seats as has been the pattern since ww2.

I think the voters realize everything is Dubya's fault and the Dems will hold power for another 500 years and they will eventually hold a majority in the house and senate on Mars.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by joeydb

The Red Tsunami is coming this November to a voting electorate near you...

Don't get too excited. The first mid-term after the Presidential always has a large change to the other party. The Dems should expect to lose every red seat that went with Obama last November. After that is what will tell the tale.

If you look, however, at what has happened to the GOP in the recent midterms (vastly underperforming the past decade or so) - they have alot to overcome, even with the Democrats help.

And the funniest comment on the Democrats I've seen was on Jon Stewart last night (can see it on the Comedy Central website). Watch the first 10 minutes of this: http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-epi...0-david-walker