Jonathan Sheppard

Patrick333 · #1 01-16-2010, 10:07 AM

Great article.

The Indomitable DrugS · #2 01-16-2010, 11:17 AM

From a betting standpoint ... Sheppard has always been a trainer I've liked a lot because he's one of those guys that has a pattern so simple and consistant .. and a whole lot of bettors never seem to catch on to it.

He was absolutely beyond brutal in Florida in the 90's .. and it carried on through this past decade.

Since 2000, he's 20-for-348 at Gulfstream Park (5.7% with a stunningly low $0.71 ROI)

Since 2000, he's 4-for-45 at Tampa Bay Downs (8.9% with a $0.58 ROI)

Since 2000, he's 1-for-32 at Calder Race Course (3.1% with a $0.41 ROI)

In the 90's ... you could basically just pencil him in for like his typical 1-for-30 GP meet. Yet, his horses would still get play down there.

You could often expect a lot of those horses to appear to come on strong when they'd leave Florida .. just by rounding back to their prior non-winter form.

Linny · #3 01-16-2010, 11:58 AM

Jonathan is one of the nicest people I have met in racing. He's truly a gentleman, so he is easy to cheer for.

As for playing his horses, he does often offer value because he's still seen by most players as a jumper trainer. Also since most of the horses work at home, their worktab on track looks spotty to most players and thus returnees especially usually have hidden fitness.
(I like the same angle with many Fir Hill based trainers. The give the horses alot of hill work and few times breezes but they are ready to roll when the time come.)

pmacdaddy · #4 01-16-2010, 12:10 PM

Great article.

I would be curious to know what his jump race to flat race win percentage and ROI are at Saratoga. Know there was at least one good one last summer.

eajinabi · #5 01-16-2010, 01:10 PM

Even though Sheppard is not nominated for the Eclipse, I think they should give him honorable mention. Asmussen will probably win it this year based on his volume of wins.

The Devil · #6 01-16-2010, 01:41 PM

Thanks for the help Steve.

freddymo · #7 01-16-2010, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

Jonathan is one of the nicest people I have met in racing. He's truly a gentleman, so he is easy to cheer for.

As for playing his horses, he does often offer value because he's still seen by most players as a jumper trainer. Also since most of the horses work at home, their worktab on track looks spotty to most players and thus returnees especially usually have hidden fitness.
(I like the same angle with many Fir Hill based trainers. The give the horses alot of hill work and few times breezes but they are ready to roll when the time come.)

If you look at DrugS post above apparently the only value on betting on Sheppard is NOT Betting him at all.. I do agree he is easy to root for and certainly seems like a great turf trainer.. Dirt doesnt seem to be as interesting to him. I assume he is more then capable of developing and campaigning a dirt horse it just doesnt seem to be a significant part of his current program.

The Indomitable DrugS · #8 01-16-2010, 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

If you look at DrugS post above apparently the only value on betting on Sheppard is NOT Betting him at all..

Actually no ... you certainly want to avoid him in the winter time if you can. No one is even close to being as brutal as he is in Florida in terms of horses underperforming.

Once the winter is over .. his horses often seem to regain their better form and sometimes peak form. He typically does better than takeout over that part of the calender.

scanman · #9 01-17-2010, 01:46 PM

Brilliant trainer/horseman, pure and simple.

richard · #10 01-17-2010, 02:29 PM

Such an envigorating, satisfying article . How can Cloudy's Knight not be a fan favorite in 2010 ?

Scav · #11 02-27-2010, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

From a betting standpoint ... Sheppard has always been a trainer I've liked a lot because he's one of those guys that has a pattern so simple and consistant .. and a whole lot of bettors never seem to catch on to it.

He was absolutely beyond brutal in Florida in the 90's .. and it carried on through this past decade.

Since 2000, he's 20-for-348 at Gulfstream Park (5.7% with a stunningly low $0.71 ROI)

Since 2000, he's 4-for-45 at Tampa Bay Downs (8.9% with a $0.58 ROI)

Since 2000, he's 1-for-32 at Calder Race Course (3.1% with a $0.41 ROI)

In the 90's ... you could basically just pencil him in for like his typical 1-for-30 GP meet. Yet, his horses would still get play down there.

You could often expect a lot of those horses to appear to come on strong when they'd leave Florida .. just by rounding back to their prior non-winter form.

Drugs, gotta thank you for tidbits like this. Bushwhacked was a perfect example of just not using him and getting paid off. Keep them up!

freddymo · #12 02-27-2010, 02:50 PM

If they ran UP the hill at Santa Anita any Sheppard would be a lock.

Scav · #13 02-27-2010, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

If they ran UP the hill at Santa Anita any Sheppard would be a lock.

I think it just shows that he is out of his element down there. It is kinda like Chuck having to eat at a really nice French restaurant where they give you a 2x2 piece of meat on a white plate with some crazy colored sauce around it and say 'Bon appetit'

Kasept · #14 02-27-2010, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I think it just shows that he is out of his element down there.

How would Sheppard ever be out of his element if we're talking about training horses at the racetrack? Isn't it more likely that he's bringing a certain percentage of his horses back from turnouts at this time of year and is racing them into shape for the serious turf season ahead?

The Indomitable DrugS · #15 02-27-2010, 04:03 PM

He's now lost with all of his last 51 starters at Gulfstream. record of 51-0-4-6 over that stretch after Bushwacked was a soundly beaten 2nd at 6/5.

His last winner at Gulfstream came on March 24th 2008 when 3/5 favorite Rath of Thunder beat a field of just two other horses.

http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...80324&raceNo=9

2MinsToPost · #16 02-27-2010, 03:14 PM

Didn't he have a decent turf horse last year seems like it was a winner at Saratoga and then Keeneland? I am almost certain he had a turf winner at Keeneland when I was there on a Thursday or Friday in the fall.

Bogey · #17 02-27-2010, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Didn't he have a decent turf horse last year seems like it was a winner at Saratoga and then Keeneland? I am almost certain he had a turf winner at Keeneland when I was there on a Thursday or Friday in the fall.

He has plenty of winners elsewhere, the stats are for his Florida runners, although I give Long Approach a big shot today.