Grey on Belmont Day

[ateamstupid]

No offense dude, you're sharp and have hit more Pick 6 tickets than I've even played in my life, but I've also seen your tickets go down the drain after you get beaten by a chalk, which I think most would say is INSANE. If I'm gonna invest a significant amount of money into a Pick 4 or Pick 6, I don't care if I absolutely hate the favorite, I'm including him or her if I'm not singling someone else, because it just makes zero sense to have a big ticket explode thanks to your exclusion of a chalk that won.

Large Pick 4 and 6 tickets are not the places to try and beat favorites all day long.

[blackthroatedwind]

You are correct, while I don't particularly like Grey Swallow, a responsible Pick-6 for reasonable money must use him somewhere on at least one of your tickets. If you're playing for a few hundred bucks it is probably fine to spend you money elsewhere ( like using as many horses as possible against Too Much Bling ) but no responsible ticket, for real money, would completely leave Grey Swallow out.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You are correct, while I don't particularly like Grey Swallow, a responsible Pick-6 for reasonable money must use him somewhere on at least one of your tickets. If you're playing for a few hundred bucks it is probably fine to spend you money elsewhere ( like using as many horses as possible against Too Much Bling ) but no responsible ticket, for real money, would completely leave Grey Swallow out.

Well my track record is pretty hard to beat. Look, we will occasionally go deep, but only a substantial carryover. The key to effectively playing a ticket in the 600 dollar range(which is what we almost always spend) is to isolate the bad faves. Ateam I respect you but until you hit a few high 5 figure or 6 figure numbers I really can't say that I think you know all the ins and outs. Blackthroat has hit many as well.
You simply can't cover every fringe chalk horse and still have enough room in the multiples to cover the horses who can give you a nice one.
We aren't trying to hit every pik-6, we are trying to hit ones they pay well and at the same time have a chance to hit lower paying tickets if thats whats comes up. Tomorrow we will spend more than we usually do. I have two singles and as of right now the ticket is still very high. To me Gorella is just a gimme. And I love Cacique and will be singling him as well. I have watched both of caciques races and think he has not fired his best shot yet. EC looks like a bounce to me off a lifetime top that he ran with a perfect trip.
I'm currently three deep in the True North and VERY deep in the ACron, Woody Stephens, and Belmont. I strongly feel that in those three races above the other three legs that a price will come in at least one of those races and very strongly feel that a price will exist in at least two of those legs. Therefore you work backwards off those three races attempting to narrow the others, in my opinion. And if you have a ticket in the 1200 dollar range, please feel free to post it. I know you don't play them a lot, and I think you will find when constructing one as a mental exercise that the 1200 bucks goes fast when putting one together. There will always be horses you have to leave out in order to make the ticket fit the money you are spending. Thats a given. Todays pik-6 will give me nightmares as well, its a VERY hard ticket to play. If it was easy, they wouldnt ever pay huge money, and you always need some luck to hit one. The one we caught for 39 grand on Sunday at Hollywood is one that gave me fits for two nighst afterwards. The bad ride we got in the first leg on the 2nd horse probably cost us having a ticket that would have paid in the 240-300 grand range, maybe more.

[blackthroatedwind]

Your track record is pretty hard to beat? Do you really want to start that nonsense with me here? Give me a break.

I play the Pick-6 with my own money and regardless of what partners I may have I also make up the tickets so pardon me if I feel a right to discuss successful Pick-6 strategy. My success, as you well know, has been pretty substantial in Pick-6s over the last couple years.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Your track record is pretty hard to beat? Do you really want to start that nonsense with me here? Give me a break.

I play the Pick-6 with my own money and regardless of what partners I may have I also make up the tickets so pardon me if I feel a right to discuss successful Pick-6 strategy. My success, as you well know, has been pretty substantial in Pick-6s over the last couple years.

Andy i was speaking to Ateam, not you. reread the post.
And my record is hard to beat. Lansdon and I have done as well as anybody I know who only spend a limited amount of cash.

[blackthroatedwind]

True, Mike, but I was mislead by your using my post as a header. Do you put in the same amount of money as Landson or pay for just your share?

Playing Pick-6s is about surviving. The reason they are hard to hit is that it is rare in a six race sequence that there isn't at least one " trip-up " race and often more. Obviously the more of these there are the more it will pay and your only hope of making a decent score is to successfully navigate at least a couple of these situations. However, it is all good and fine to get your two oddball horses home, but if you outsmart yourself and leave off a logical favorite in an earlier race you are doomed. So, success in the Pick-6 leans heavily on two things, having good opinions at the right time as well as, and MORE importantly, putting your ticket(s) together correctly.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

True, Mike, but I was mislead by your using my post as a header. Do you put in the same amount of money as Landson or pay for just your share?

Playing Pick-6s is about surviving. The reason they are hard to hit is that it is rare in a six race sequence that there isn't at least one " trip-up " race and often more. Obviously the more of these there are the more it will pay and your only hope of making a decent score is to successfully navigate at least a couple of these situations. However, it is all good and fine to get your two oddball horses home, but if you outsmart yourself and leave off a logical favorite in an earlier race you are doomed. So, success in the Pick-6 leans heavily on two things, having good opinions at the right time as well as, and MORE importantly, putting your ticket(s) together correctly.

I agree with every word of your post, you would be shocked how often you and I think exactly alike. Our common friend often gets your thoughts from another common friend and when he asks me for mine he very often says, thats the same thing that you said.
Lans puts up the money, and I get "sweat equity". I once wanted to buy in to a ticket with him at a higher percentage and he declined. Its his feeling that by having him put up the cash it eliminates emotions from me and causes me to operate with clarity. He knows me better than anyone, and I really can't argue with his thoughts. Hes rarely wrong when it comes to me.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You are correct, while I don't particularly like Grey Swallow, a responsible Pick-6 for reasonable money must use him somewhere on at least one of your tickets. If you're playing for a few hundred bucks it is probably fine to spend you money elsewhere ( like using as many horses as possible against Too Much Bling ) but no responsible ticket, for real money, would completely leave Grey Swallow out.

And yes, I am thinking try to beat Bling. I don't like the post and see a possible regression of the huge one he ran last time.
The Acorn is a nightmare to me, I could see as many as 6 horses winning it. The Belmont gave me fits as well. The true Noth looks like the entry, Vicarage, and Anew. I know many will single Tiger but i dont trust him back off short rest and two huge races(I thought the last race was as perfect a trip as a horse will ever get, running "loose" and unimpeded or pushed in 2nd tracking a horse who likes to give it up who had set an absurd 1/4 time, and the field was weak, in addition his well documented physical problems make him a hard horse ever to single as those can flare up at any given time).