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#1
06-09-2006, 07:42 AM
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Bogey, This I will tell you. I had keyed Grey Swallow in a pik-4 last out and watched him run, he beat absolute garbage horses, and had to work hard to get by one of the goats on the turn. Hes a nothing, and I mean a NOTHING. There is no way he beats this field on saturday. Apparaently Im the only one who actually watched his last race, because I just can't fathom why so many people like this horse in a race that he has absolutely no chance at all of winning. YOU may wanna go back and watch his last race, and actually peruse the pp's of the absolute rodents he beat last out. No way, no how. 
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#2
06-09-2006, 07:49 AM
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I agree with pretty much everything blackthroatedwind said. I totally concur about him being overrated and most likely over the hill, but at the same time, I wouldn't be able to forgive myself if a ticket blew up because he finally lived up to the hype. The horse did beat Bago once upon a time after all.
And the sun will be out Saturday, Bogey! No grey skies.
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#3
06-09-2006, 07:52 AM
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Ateam he beat absolute nothings last time, I mean please. Beacon Breacon? You've got to be kidding me. English Channel and Cacique are both making their 3rd starts in the form cycle and have had proper 5 weeks rest of their last race. Both are well trained, etc. I'm not saying to go out and mortgage the house and bet an exacta box on the two faves, but including horses like Grey Swallow in pik-3's and pik-4's is insanity, it will repreesent a complete waste of money.
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#4
06-09-2006, 08:14 AM
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There is ZERO evidence that the rail was " not the place to be " on Derby Day....and I mean ZERO. Because a trainer made the mistake of using it as an excuse for a horse, Sweetnorthernsaint, who had actual excuses does not make it so. The simple fact is that plenty of horses ran just fine, no worse than could have been expected and in some cases possibly better, while running on the rail. With that being the case, and I have gone back and watched the replays of all the dirt races more than once, there is NO chance there was anything wrong with the rail that day. The simple fact is that because a horse, even a few horses, don't perform up to expectations while being on the rail ( and I'm not convinced there are examples of this on Derby Day ), the rail is NOT necessarily dead. As, if even a couple of horses perform up to expectations while racing on the rail then there is no chance it is ( or was ) dead. If the rail is dead, or even " not the place to be ", NOBODY will run up to expectations. It will not hamper some but not all....it will affect every single horse that races on it.
The simple fact is that racetracks can often give the illusion of having an off rail because most races are run in an outside flow manner. The funny thing about Derby Day was the number of horses that actually made effective moves inside of horses and towards the inside. The track, at Churchill Downs on May 6th, was even.
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#5
06-09-2006, 08:16 AM
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No offense dude, you're sharp and have hit more Pick 6 tickets than I've even played in my life, but I've also seen your tickets go down the drain after you get beaten by a chalk, which I think most would say is INSANE. If I'm gonna invest a significant amount of money into a Pick 4 or Pick 6, I don't care if I absolutely hate the favorite, I'm including him or her if I'm not singling someone else, because it just makes zero sense to have a big ticket explode thanks to your exclusion of a chalk that won.
Large Pick 4 and 6 tickets are not the places to try and beat favorites all day long. Last edited by ateamstupid : 06-09-2006 at 08:18 AM.
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#6
06-09-2006, 08:23 AM
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You are correct, while I don't particularly like Grey Swallow, a responsible Pick-6 for reasonable money must use him somewhere on at least one of your tickets. If you're playing for a few hundred bucks it is probably fine to spend you money elsewhere ( like using as many horses as possible against Too Much Bling ) but no responsible ticket, for real money, would completely leave Grey Swallow out.
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#7
06-09-2006, 09:36 AM
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Well my track record is pretty hard to beat. Look, we will occasionally go deep, but only a substantial carryover. The key to effectively playing a ticket in the 600 dollar range(which is what we almost always spend) is to isolate the bad faves. Ateam I respect you but until you hit a few high 5 figure or 6 figure numbers I really can't say that I think you know all the ins and outs. Blackthroat has hit many as well. You simply can't cover every fringe chalk horse and still have enough room in the multiples to cover the horses who can give you a nice one. We aren't trying to hit every pik-6, we are trying to hit ones they pay well and at the same time have a chance to hit lower paying tickets if thats whats comes up. Tomorrow we will spend more than we usually do. I have two singles and as of right now the ticket is still very high. To me Gorella is just a gimme. And I love Cacique and will be singling him as well. I have watched both of caciques races and think he has not fired his best shot yet. EC looks like a bounce to me off a lifetime top that he ran with a perfect trip. I'm currently three deep in the True North and VERY deep in the ACron, Woody Stephens, and Belmont. I strongly feel that in those three races above the other three legs that a price will come in at least one of those races and very strongly feel that a price will exist in at least two of those legs. Therefore you work backwards off those three races attempting to narrow the others, in my opinion. And if you have a ticket in the 1200 dollar range, please feel free to post it. I know you don't play them a lot, and I think you will find when constructing one as a mental exercise that the 1200 bucks goes fast when putting one together. There will always be horses you have to leave out in order to make the ticket fit the money you are spending. Thats a given. Todays pik-6 will give me nightmares as well, its a VERY hard ticket to play. If it was easy, they wouldnt ever pay huge money, and you always need some luck to hit one. The one we caught for 39 grand on Sunday at Hollywood is one that gave me fits for two nighst afterwards. The bad ride we got in the first leg on the 2nd horse probably cost us having a ticket that would have paid in the 240-300 grand range, maybe more.
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#8
06-09-2006, 09:45 AM
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Your track record is pretty hard to beat? Do you really want to start that nonsense with me here? Give me a break.
I play the Pick-6 with my own money and regardless of what partners I may have I also make up the tickets so pardon me if I feel a right to discuss successful Pick-6 strategy. My success, as you well know, has been pretty substantial in Pick-6s over the last couple years.
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#9
06-09-2006, 09:40 AM
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And yes, I am thinking try to beat Bling. I don't like the post and see a possible regression of the huge one he ran last time. The Acorn is a nightmare to me, I could see as many as 6 horses winning it. The Belmont gave me fits as well. The true Noth looks like the entry, Vicarage, and Anew. I know many will single Tiger but i dont trust him back off short rest and two huge races(I thought the last race was as perfect a trip as a horse will ever get, running "loose" and unimpeded or pushed in 2nd tracking a horse who likes to give it up who had set an absurd 1/4 time, and the field was weak, in addition his well documented physical problems make him a hard horse ever to single as those can flare up at any given time).
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