12/12 (HOL): Native Diver H. (G3) -- Mast Track 95 BSF

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That's a bit over the top.

Firstly, isn't Lava Man several years removed from top form, too?

Then, strictly on paper, you have a 6-horse field in a Grade 3 race. 3 of the 6 are previous Grade 1 winners (with another a Grade 2 winner).

Tres Borrachos, Mast Track, and Square Eddie are all graded stakes placed this year.

That being said, the horse with the least paper accomplisment among the main track horses, Neko Bay, has a huge shot in here. With just a little insurance from Mast Track or Square Eddie to keep Tres Borrachos from controlling the race, he should get it done.

That is, of course, unless Smith decides to pull another Desormeaux impersonation like he did in the BC Dirt Mile.

Neko Bay pretty much sucks but always gets bet because he runs "ok" and his connections. Stop betting bad horses, if it was a mid level claimer, then Neko Bay fits.