She's Done

brianwspencer · #1 11-09-2009, 12:54 PM

On a side note, parsix, is there any history of how the track was playing on those given days from year to year? It may well prove out your theory, but I'd be interested to know what the general speed of the course was on each of those days in relation to one another.

parsixfarms · #2 11-09-2009, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

On a side note, parsix, is there any history of how the track was playing on those given days from year to year? It may well prove out your theory, but I'd be interested to know what the general speed of the course was on each of those days in relation to one another.

Actually, in a trip down memory lane (seeing some of the horses that ran on the undercards of some of these Grade I standards), the only track that I would consider unusually slow for the entire day was for the 2006 Woodward (an overcast day where they sealed the track but it didn't rain). Also, the track was reverse harrowed midway through the card for the 2008 Whitney, making it much slower for the second half of the card. Looking at all the data (considering final time and quality of horses running some of the main track undercard races), you could argue that the track for this year's Woodward was certainly one of the faster racing surfaces in this sample.

2002 Whitney (appeared to be a drying-out track):

2YO MSW (Sky Mesa): 1:10.4
NW1X (Najran): 1:22.3
NW3X (Voodoo): 1:21.2
Amsterdam (Listen Here): 1:09.2

2003 Whitney (went from muddy to fast thoughout the card):

2YO MSW (Birdstone): 1:10.1
NW2L (Draw Fire): 1:23.4
NW3X (Way to the Top): 1:22
Amsterdam (Zavata): 1:08.3

2004 Whitney:

2YO MSW: 1:12.4; 1:12.3
NW1X allowance: 1:51.1
Amsterdam (Bwana Charlie): 1:09.2
NY-bred NW1X (Friendly Island): 1:09.4

2005 Whitney:

2YO MSW: 1:18.2
NW2X (Ice Wynnd Fire): 1:50.3
Test (Leave Me Alone): 1:22.3

2006 Whitney:

2YO MSW: 1:17.2
Test (Swap Fliparoo): 1:24

2006 Woodward:

2YO MSW: 1:19.1; 1:17.3 (Tiz Wonderful)
NW2L (Diamond Stripes): 1:50.4
Forego (Pomeroy): 1:23.1

2007 Whitney:

2YO MSW (War Pass): 1:10.1
Vanderbilt (Diabolical): 1:08.3

2007 Woodward:

2YO MSW: 1:18.1; 1:17.4
Forego (Midnight Lute): 1:21.0

2008 Whitney:

NY-bred NW1X (Benny the Waiter): 1:09.3
2YO MSW (Munnings): 1:09.4
3YO and up MSW (Joppa Flat's): 1:21.3. (All before the reverse harrow)
Vanderbilt (Abraaj): 1:10.1
Go For Wand (Ginger Punch): 1:53.4

2008 Woodward:

NY-bred NW2x (Rollers): 1:09.2
NW2L allowance: 1:09.3
2YO MSW (Hello Broadway): 1:16.4
Forego (First Defense): 1:21.2

2009 Whitney:

NW2L claimer (Brecciate): 1:09.4
NY-bred mdn clm (Afrikaner): 1:16.3
Test (Flashing): 1:22.2

2009 Woodward:

25K starter allowance (Starforaday): 1:15.0
2YO MSW: 1:23.3 (Callide Valley); 1:23.4 (Gun Rock)
NW1X (Mesa Sunrise): 1:15.0
Forego (Pyro): 1:21.2

The Indomitable DrugS · #3 11-11-2009, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Actually, in a trip down memory lane (seeing some of the horses that ran on the undercards of some of these Grade I standards), the only track that I would consider unusually slow for the entire day was for the 2006 Woodward (an overcast day where they sealed the track but it didn't rain). Also, the track was reverse harrowed midway through the card for the 2008 Whitney, making it much slower for the second half of the card. Looking at all the data (considering final time and quality of horses running some of the main track undercard races), you could argue that the track for this year's Woodward was certainly one of the faster racing surfaces in this sample.

2002 Whitney (appeared to be a drying-out track):

2YO MSW (Sky Mesa): 1:10.4
NW1X (Najran): 1:22.3
NW3X (Voodoo): 1:21.2
Amsterdam (Listen Here): 1:09.2

2003 Whitney (went from muddy to fast thoughout the card):

2YO MSW (Birdstone): 1:10.1
NW2L (Draw Fire): 1:23.4
NW3X (Way to the Top): 1:22
Amsterdam (Zavata): 1:08.3

2004 Whitney:

2YO MSW: 1:12.4; 1:12.3
NW1X allowance: 1:51.1
Amsterdam (Bwana Charlie): 1:09.2
NY-bred NW1X (Friendly Island): 1:09.4

2005 Whitney:

2YO MSW: 1:18.2
NW2X (Ice Wynnd Fire): 1:50.3
Test (Leave Me Alone): 1:22.3

2006 Whitney:

2YO MSW: 1:17.2
Test (Swap Fliparoo): 1:24

2006 Woodward:

2YO MSW: 1:19.1; 1:17.3 (Tiz Wonderful)
NW2L (Diamond Stripes): 1:50.4
Forego (Pomeroy): 1:23.1

2007 Whitney:

2YO MSW (War Pass): 1:10.1
Vanderbilt (Diabolical): 1:08.3

2007 Woodward:

2YO MSW: 1:18.1; 1:17.4
Forego (Midnight Lute): 1:21.0

2008 Whitney:

NY-bred NW1X (Benny the Waiter): 1:09.3
2YO MSW (Munnings): 1:09.4
3YO and up MSW (Joppa Flat's): 1:21.3. (All before the reverse harrow)
Vanderbilt (Abraaj): 1:10.1
Go For Wand (Ginger Punch): 1:53.4

2008 Woodward:

NY-bred NW2x (Rollers): 1:09.2
NW2L allowance: 1:09.3
2YO MSW (Hello Broadway): 1:16.4
Forego (First Defense): 1:21.2

2009 Whitney:

NW2L claimer (Brecciate): 1:09.4
NY-bred mdn clm (Afrikaner): 1:16.3
Test (Flashing): 1:22.2

2009 Woodward:

25K starter allowance (Starforaday): 1:15.0
2YO MSW: 1:23.3 (Callide Valley); 1:23.4 (Gun Rock)
NW1X (Mesa Sunrise): 1:15.0
Forego (Pyro): 1:21.2

* How did the horses who went out early with Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward do?

* How did the closers who sat furthest off of the early pace do?

You trap yourself a lot of times when you try and compare one-turn races with two-turn races on the same card. There are weather related factors that can screw you up.

Both the Preakness and Woodward were examples of VERY fast early paces that favored closers. Just as Zenyatta had to deal with VERY slow paces that didn't favor closers in the two races she earned the Beyers in the high 90's and barely beat allowance horses on losing streaks.

As for Commentator, he got away with absolute murder in his 2nd Whitney win .. in his first Whitney win he got no early pressure and steadily picked up the tempo in a very fast race.

parsixfarms · #4 11-11-2009, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

* How did the horses who went out early with Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward do?

Da' Tara ran his typically poor race in the Woodward. He was eased in his race before the Woodward. He was loose on the lead in a recent allowance race and folded badly. Rachel's presence really had little to do with his weak result.

Past the Point is clearly not the same horse that he was last year. If he was, he would have won the recent Bold Ruler, at his preferred 7F on dirt. He set a faster pace last year outrunning Wanderin' Boy early and held on. That he was done on the turn this year only further supports the conclusion that he's not as good this year as last.