All conventional wisdom may be lost...

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think Bernardini will win the Classic. I think he is head and shoulders of above anyone out there with the possible exception of Lava Man. But with Lava Man, we don't know that he can necessarily run as well on the road and his last two races were not quite as good as some of his past races. I make Bernardini a pretty heavy favorite to win the Classic.

I really believe that the high weights in the Hollywood Gold Cup and his tough campaign are responsible for his last two races not being quite as good. That HGC race was so hard on that horse. It is just amazing that he managed to win with all of the weight that he was giving to the other horses in addition to the facts that he stumbled out of the gate and had horses attacking him from every side throughout the entire race. I think that if he gets some well needed rest that he will be good as new! He ran some nice races earlier in the year, although I don't know if they were as impressive as those three last year. He certainly has been more consistent this year though.

Like you though, I don't know how he ships, and even if everything goes perfect for Lava Man, his best may still not be good enough to beat Bernardini.