Early Breeders' Cup Projections...

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Yes, Joel, everyone knows Ad Valorem is second or third tier, thus his winning one of Europes biggest Group 1s at a mile does not speak well of their contingency this year. I understand the horses you mentioned may not have been in that race but I still consider it a bad sign.

I haven't noticed anyone saying they " know " Gorella is not as good at 1 3/8 as she would be going shorter. However, in my extensive experience with horse racing I would say many more horses with explosive bursts like Gorella will NOT sustain that move as they stretch out severly. Certainly it is possible just not likely.

As for Intercontinental, while I certainly gave her no shot last year, and in my case it was because I was never enamored with her as a horse more than a feeling about the distance, but as I pointed out before she wired the field and for that reason I am not sure her win can be considered a true measure of the overall talents of the field. Somehow I don't believe Gorella will be in a position to go wire to wire. I'm sure you won't argue that if a horse is to successfully negotiate a distance that is overall to far for him or her that victory is very likely to occur on the front end.

Do you consider 1 3/8 miles "severely" longer than 1 3/16...it is only 3/16 of a mile longer...just like 1 3/16 miles is only 3/16 longer than a mile and she crushed a pretty solid Film Maker with ease at that trip and never needed her best to win comfortably....I just do not see it as a 'severe' increase in distance that she cannot handle...Whose to say that she isn't better going that far?..Seriously?..Who can justify that thought?

You are speculating that she will be at her best around one mile, and I am speculating that the extra 3/16 will not be a factor, especially if she can against her own sex.....it is all speculation.... ...we'll see what happens....I'll tell you this, Lady of Venice should not factor in the decision because she has NO prayer in any BC race.....I liked her a lot but she has been very disappointing....

[blackthroatedwind]

Joel, seriously, I couldn't possibly disagree more with you. That doesn't make me right but I would say we have a basic difference of opinion about the game.

[Cajungator26]

Unfortunately, we'll never know how Gorella will do at 1 3/8 if she doesn't run it. As for her running against horses like Aragorn... I'm sorry, but I just don't think she has a chance. I'd cheer her on if she was proving me wrong though.

Juv Fillies - Point Ashley
Juv - Principle Secret
Mile - Gorella if she goes
F and M Turf - Ouija Board if she goes
Sprint - Henny Hughes
Distaff - Baletto
Turf - Hurrican Run
Classic - Sun King

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Classic - Sun King

I like him too. I really think that this year he is beginning to figure this racing thing out. He has been improving in every race. He will be in my tris because he tries hard everytime. IMO, he will be in one of the top three spots at the finish line.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

I like him too. I really think that this year he is beginning to figure this racing thing out. He has been improving in every race. He will be in my tris because he tries hard everytime. IMO, he will be in one of the top three spots at the finish line.

I agree as well. I didn't like him very much last year, but I think he's coming into this own and it'd be nice to see him hit the board in the Classic.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I agree as well. I didn't like him very much last year, but I think he's coming into this own and it'd be nice to see him hit the board in the Classic.

Yeah. Now after Gorella wins her race (whichever she goes in) I will be a happy camper. But then when I cash a nice one on my Drifty/Sun King/Bernardini tri, I will be ecstatic!

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I agree as well. I didn't like him very much last year, but I think he's coming into this own and it'd be nice to see him hit the board in the Classic.

I think that this horse will hit the board in the Classic. Depending on how he runs in his next start, I may even put him on top in a few exotic bets...We'll see.

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

I like him too. I really think that this year he is beginning to figure this racing thing out. He has been improving in every race. He will be in my tris because he tries hard everytime. IMO, he will be in one of the top three spots at the finish line.

If the field for Classic is what I think it is going to be then I love Sun King in this race. He is really the only horse who can make a strong middle move. Churchill plays right into his running style. I will be in Louisville the week of the BC and I will report back on how Sun King is doing.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

If the field for Classic is what I think it is going to be then I love Sun King in this race. He is really the only horse who can make a strong middle move. Churchill plays right into his running style. I will be in Louisville the week of the BC and I will report back on how Sun King is doing.

Cool! Thanks Euro. Fill us in on what you see with all the horses.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

If the field for Classic is what I think it is going to be then I love Sun King in this race. He is really the only horse who can make a strong middle move. Churchill plays right into his running style. I will be in Louisville the week of the BC and I will report back on how Sun King is doing.

Thanks Euro. Any information will certainly be appreciated on this end.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Unfortunately, we'll never know how Gorella will do at 1 3/8 if she doesn't run it. As for her running against horses like Aragorn... I'm sorry, but I just don't think she has a chance. I'd cheer her on if she was proving me wrong though.

Honestly, Gorella can win either race she enters. I don't think the distance is going to matter. Put that closing kick up against any horse and I think she comes out the victor. If she is in a longer race, jock will just wait a little longer to unleash the beast. If she goes in the mile, we will just see it earlier.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

Honestly, Gorella can win either race she enters. I don't think the distance is going to matter. Put that closing kick up against any horse and I think she comes out the victor. If she is in a longer race, jock will just wait a little longer to unleash the beast. If she goes in the mile, we will just see it earlier.

I would personally like to see her in the mile again because she was so close last year (3rd; lost by a length), and she didn't have the best of trips. Love this mare. With that being said, Aragorn sure is nice too.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I would personally like to see her in the mile again because she was so close last year (3rd; lost by a length), and she didn't have the best of trips. Love this mare. With that being said, Aragorn sure is nice too.

I was VERY mad at Gary last year after that ride. I know it wasn't REALLY his fault, but I was still mad at him.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Joel, seriously, I couldn't possibly disagree more with you. That doesn't make me right but I would say we have a basic difference of opinion about the game.

we'll agree to disagree then...and we'll see what happens....

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Do you consider 1 3/8 miles "severely" longer than 1 3/16...it is only 3/16 of a mile longer...just like 1 3/16 miles is only 3/16 longer than a mile and she crushed a pretty solid Film Maker with ease at that trip and never needed her best to win comfortably....I just do not see it as a 'severe' increase in distance that she cannot handle...Whose to say that she isn't better going that far?..Seriously?..Who can justify that thought?

You are speculating that she will be at her best around one mile, and I am speculating that the extra 3/16 will not be a factor, especially if she can against her own sex.....it is all speculation.... ...we'll see what happens....I'll tell you this, Lady of Venice should not factor in the decision because she has NO prayer in any BC race.....I liked her a lot but she has been very disappointing....

How does that make sense? So Silver Train won the BC Sprint at 6 furlongs and then went and won the Met Mile at 8 furlongs. By your logic if those two extra furlongs weren't an issue then he should have no problem adding two more furlongs and going a mile and a quarter.

It is pretty easy to justify that she is best at a mile since that is where her trainer, who knows way more about her than any of us, thinks she is best.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

How does that make sense? So Silver Train won the BC Sprint at 6 furlongs and then went and won the Met Mile at 8 furlongs. By your logic if those two extra furlongs weren't an issue then he should have no problem adding two more furlongs and going a mile and a quarter.

It is pretty easy to justify that she is best at a mile since that is where her trainer, who knows way more about her than any of us, thinks she is best.

No sir, your wrong there....the differnece between a mile and 1 1/4 miles is the TWO TURNS MORE THAN ANYTHING....Could Silver Train get a mile anywhere other than a place like Belmont, AQU, CD or ARL where it is a ONE TURN race?...I doubt it....But, could Silver Train get 1 1/4 miles if there were such thing as a one turn 10-furlong race, who knows...maybe...

What people don't undertstand about stamina is that most of the time it has to do with having the ability to negotiiate the second turn rather than the distance....your exapmle was dead horrible and I'm really shocked you used it...

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

No sir, your wrong there....the differnece between a mile and 1 1/4 miles is the TWO TURNS MORE THAN ANYTHING....Could Silver Train get a mile anywhere other than a place like Belmont, AQU, CD or ARL where it is a ONE TURN race?...I doubt it....But, could Silver Train get 1 1/4 miles if there were such thing as a one turn 10-furlong race, who knows...maybe...

What people don't undertstand about stamina is that most of the time it has to do with having the ability to negotiiate the second turn rather than the distance....your exapmle was dead horrible and I'm really shocked you used it...

This is correct in my opinion. Take a horse like Pleasant Tap back in in 1991-92. Couldn't win a race around two turns ANYWHERE. But put him at 10f at Belmont where it's only one-turn and he dominated the Suburban (1:58 4/5) and the JCGC.

He's just one example but there are plenty more of those horses that couldn't stay 10f anywhere but Belmont. I agree that the second turn is more of a reason than distance as to why more horses can't handle it.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

As dominating as Gorella's Beverly D was, one thing we are forgetting about is she closed into a very fast pace that day. In my opinion it helped her get the 1 3/16. They went 23 and 1, 46 and 4 and 1:11 flat for the first 3 quarters. By comparison, the million went 24 and 3, 50 and 1, 1:15 flat. Gorella would have been nowhere had she run in the million, and I doubt she will get a pace like that again in the F&M turf. Her best shot is in the mile in my opinion.

DaHoss,

I would never compare times from different races on Million day...that'll get you in trouble....Showing Up ran a much faster time than Cacique did yet Cacique ran by him like he was standing still in the Man o'War the other day...and two years ago Kitten's Joy ran faster than Powerscourt when winning the Secretariat, but we found out which horse was difinitively better the next year in the Million.....don't always judge times....

Also, I'd like to point out that Film Maker, whom many believe is definately in the top 5 turf fillies and mares maybe in the world, closed into that same fast pace yet she was still no match for Gorella who was closing with strides that were 2-to-1 better than Film Maker's....and she won easily under the wire..

I'm telling you, I'd bet ANYTHING 1 3/8 miles would not be an issue with her....

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm not comparing final times, I'm talking internal fractions. Gorella did have a fast pace to close into. Do you think she would have made a move like that if they were going the same fractions as they did in the million. And Showing Up's race was faster, but look at the final fraction in the million. They went the last 1/4 in 22 and change. When in comparison, Showing Up went the last quarter in 24 and 1, so an argument can be made that Cacique's race was better, especially when considering competition. I usually don't look to much into times when handicapping, but I definitely feel as though Gorella's performance was enhanced by the swift pace she was able to close into.

Comon, man.....Showing up ran like 15 lengths faster than The Tin Cup through the first six furlongs of the race, yet he still ran a faster overall time in the end....tomato/tomatoe, man....You still haven't answered the question of how Film Maker failed to match strides with Gorella closing into that fast pace.....Film Maker is a VERY respectable turf mare in the world with two very respectable BC F&M Turf finishes, yet Gorella's closing kick dwarfed Film Maker's and she won with complete ease at the wire.....just the facts....

Bottomline: I almost stake my ability to evaluate horse racing that Gorella will effectively get 1 3/8 miles....