I Really Wish I Could Have Seen......

[Indian Charlie]

And tell me you aren't dumb enough to actually believe Lil E. Tee was better than Indy. That field for the derby was watered down, and you know it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

And tell me you aren't dumb enough to actually believe Lil E. Tee was better than Indy.

Going into the Kentucky Derby?

Absolutely. He ran a 106 and 107 in his final two fast track prep races. A. P. Indy ran a 100 and a 95 in his.

Not only did Lil E Tee own a figure edge between 4-to-7 lengths over A. P. Indy .. but he also owned a seasoning edge .. having made 4 prior starts in 3 preps to just 2 starts for Ap Indy.






Just because Lil E. Tee was coming into the Derby as a better horse than A. P. Indy ... doesn't mean he was a better horse.

A. P. Indy possibly had an issue bothering him in his preps - and with time to recover - he ran to the level of Lil E Tee. Lil E Tee obviously had his physical issues after the Preakness. He didn't race again at age 3 and only made 3 more starts.

It's unfair and insane to compare the two based on what they've done as sires. Lil E. Tee is an obscurely bred type who was bought from a 2yo in training sale for just 25K. A. P. Indy is a royally bred type who sold for a staggering $2,900,000 as a yearling.

[CSC]

He( Lil E. Tee ) wasn't the greatest Derby winner ever, but I do recommend reading his story in the book Derby Champions.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The guy who trained Lil E Tee as a 2yo was stabled next to my father when my father trained horses.

They bought him up after he won a MSW race at Calder by 11.5 lengths.

[CSC]

Lynn Whiting didn't train him as a 2 yr old? I thought his story was a great lesson of good things happen to those who perservere and never give up. The colt could very easily died and no one would have heard of him.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Mike Trivigno trained him at Calder... he was purchased after a big maiden win.

I think Whiting had him near the end of his 2yo season... maybe for a race or two.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Going into the Kentucky Derby?

Absolutely. He ran a 106 and 107 in his final two fast track prep races. A. P. Indy ran a 100 and a 95 in his.

Not only did Lil E Tee own a figure edge between 4-to-7 lengths over A. P. Indy .. but he also owned a seasoning edge .. having made 4 prior starts in 3 preps to just 2 starts for Ap Indy.

Taking into consideration that Indy was likely not peaking at the SA Derby, combined with a retardedly low figure for that race (what, no split variant?), I think it's safe to take the Peter Pan as a more realistic expectation of what Indy was going to do in his next start (which was his next start!), the Ky. Derby. If you take that approach, their preps were really not far apart at all, and again, that 95 BSF is moronic.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Just because Lil E. Tee was coming into the Derby as a better horse than A. P. Indy ... doesn't mean he was a better horse

A. P. Indy possibly had an issue bothering him in his preps - and with time to recover - he ran to the level of Lil E Tee. Lil E Tee obviously had his physical issues after the Preakness. He didn't race again at age 3 and only made 3 more starts.

It's unfair and insane to compare the two based on what they've done as sires. Lil E. Tee is an obscurely bred type who was bought from a 2yo in training sale for just 25K. A. P. Indy is a royally bred type who sold for a staggering $2,900,000 as a yearling.

Who compared them as stallions?

I've got another question for you. Say for the moment that I agree with everything you are saying here. Say also AP Indy does indeed run in the race. Does Lil E. Tee go off favored over Indy? I'm going to guess that almost everyone, besides you, would realize that 95 figure is bullshid and that Indy would have gone off as the strong favorite. What's your thought on that?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm going to guess that almost everyone, besides you, would realize that 95 figure is bullshid and that Indy would have gone off as the strong favorite. What's your thought on that?

How exactly was that 95 figure BS?

The race went 2 full seconds slower than Another Review's race the same day.

Why would they split the variant? Was there some extreme weather conditions that day ... or was it just a case of the Santa Anita track superintendant trying to slow the track down as much as possible before the race - and trying to speed it up to normal after the race - in hopes of fooling the figure makers?

Bottom line ... the winner of that race was scratched from his next start because of a physical issue. The 2nd place finisher and 3rd place finisher both didn't win a single race the rest of the year.

Maybe Another Review should have got a 124 and A P Indy a 105?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How exactly was that 95 figure BS?

The race went 2 full seconds slower than Another Review's race the same day.

Why would they split the variant? Was there some extreme weather conditions that day ... or was it just a case of the Santa Anita track superintendant trying to slow the track down as much as possible before the race - and trying to speed it up to normal after the race - in hopes of fooling the figure makers?

Bottom line ... the winner of that race was scratched from his next start because of a physical issue. The 2nd place finisher and 3rd place finisher both didn't win a single race the rest of the year.

Maybe Another Review should have got a 124 and A P Indy a 105?

Track supers do weird things. Figure makers do exactly what you describe all the time. When they get a puzzling result, they love splitting variants.

If you watch that race and thought, hmm, those horses are only about a 95 BSF quality type, then clearly your judgment is impaired. That was a terrific race, by terrific horses, and that figure was no way indicative of how good that race was.

You really should know by now that figures are often misleading, if not outright wrong.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Track supers do weird things. Figure makers do exactly what you describe all the time. When they get a puzzling result, they love splitting variants.

Facepalm.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Facepalm.

Whatever man.

Back then, it was not uncommon at all to see a lower level horse run a faster time than a stakes race on the same card and have the stakes race come back faster. Sometimes much faster.

At some point in the last five to ten years, some bright individual figured out that that makes them look kinda stupid.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How exactly was that 95 figure BS?

The race went 2 full seconds slower than Another Review's race the same day.

Why would they split the variant? Was there some extreme weather conditions that day ... or was it just a case of the Santa Anita track superintendant trying to slow the track down as much as possible before the race - and trying to speed it up to normal after the race - in hopes of fooling the figure makers?

Bottom line ... the winner of that race was scratched from his next start because of a physical issue. The 2nd place finisher and 3rd place finisher both didn't win a single race the rest of the year.

Maybe Another Review should have got a 124 and A P Indy a 105?

Oh, and you neglected to answer my question about favoritism in the derby that year. Do you think Lil E. Tee was going to go off at lower odds than Indy?

If not, why? Just cause Indy had the expensive price tag and the fancy pedigree?

Maybe because people might have realized who was really the better horse, ridiculous figures or not?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Oh, and you neglected to answer my question about favoritism in the derby that year. Do you think Lil E. Tee was going to go off at lower odds than Indy?

If not, why? Just cause Indy had the expensive price tag and the fancy pedigree?

Maybe because people might have realized who was really the better horse, ridiculous figures or not?

Of course Lil E Tee would have been a bigger price ... he finished closely behind eventual Preakness winner Pine Bluff twice at Oaklawn.

Horses don't get bet in that race solely on the basis of big recent figs. I think both Charismatic and War Emblem had the fields highest last out figure going into the Derby ... and both were huge prices.

Variant splits are normally the result of extreme wind and weather. Again - the race was in early April - the winner was scratched out of his next race .. and the 2nd and 3rd place finishers didn't win a single race the rest of the year.