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#1
09-19-2006, 11:26 AM
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I'll say this then...is they elect to run her in the Mile instead of the F&M Turf then she won't win a BC event...she won't beat all 3 Euros I mentioned earlier...
I really am a big fan of hers...I think she is a cool horse and she deserves a BC win...I just feel she'll have a better chance against her own kind...hell, Ouija Board couldn't even beat Intercontinental last year and she is a year older now and Alexandrova is a 3YO....easier competition than the 3 top male Euro Milers I would say..... 
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#2
09-19-2006, 11:29 AM
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A pretty strong argument could be made that Ouiji Board is better this year than last. And, as for not running Intercontinental down, a horse I loathe by the way, when an odd horse wires a field it usually makes the entire race suspect and the result is hardly indicative of the respective abilities of the field.
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#3
09-19-2006, 11:34 AM
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#4
09-19-2006, 11:38 AM
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If it's the wrong distance it doesn't matter who she is facing. I can't believe you actually think Gorella rates to be even close to as good at 1 3/8 as she is at 1 1/8 miles. There is a WORLD of difference IMO.
Ad Valorum won one of Europe's big mile Group 1 races recently. Sorry if I'm not shaking in my boots about the milers coming from there. Look, I'm the first to just say " I'll take the Euros " for this race, but I don't think this year's contingent is looking very strong.
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#5
09-19-2006, 12:02 PM
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And, how come everybody can come on here with confidence and say that they KNOW Gorella is not as good at 1 3/8 miles...the last time I checked, she hadn't raced at that distance ever....that is just your perception, but the truth is that she has been just as impressive and accomplished going the furthest she's gone as she has going a mile...you might want to review her PPs again.... Everybody also thought that Intercontinental was a miler last year - including her trainer - and yet she romped in the F&M Turf...
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#6
09-19-2006, 12:05 PM
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Early Predictions
Juvenile Fillies...Allude Juvenile...Circular Quay Mile...Gorella Filly and Mare Turf...Ouija Board Distaff...Happy Ticket Sprint...Discreet Cat Turf...Shirocco Classic...Bernardini These selections are full of chalk. It's a good thing that I will probably change my mind 500 times before BC day gets here. I like price horses, not chalk , but I also like to win my bets  , and right now, this is where I stand.
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#7
09-19-2006, 12:22 PM
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RATINGS:
Ouija Board 125 Alexandrova 123+ Gorella 122 I feel that the BCFMT is the race where the Euros are strongest. Ouija Board has been campaigned with greater regularity than in previous seasons, but runs with credit race in race out. The 11f trip will prove ideal, she is amenable as regards her positioning through a race, and is a certainty to finish in the first 3: I'd put my life on that! Alexandrova could scarcely have been more impressive in winning the Epsom/Irish/Yorkshire Oaks, seemingly well within herself. She relaxes well during her races and has a lethal turn of foot. She is a league apart amongst 3yo fillies (and the 3 4yos she faced at York). Gorella switches off so well during her races that I imagine that she probably will prove effective over 11f, and her ability to quicken so well make her a formidable opponent in any company. However with even the slightest doubt over stamina the two fillies listed above will take advantage. I get the impression the Mile is shaping up into the less competitive race, and that may be the one they should aim for.
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#8
09-19-2006, 12:27 PM
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I haven't noticed anyone saying they " know " Gorella is not as good at 1 3/8 as she would be going shorter. However, in my extensive experience with horse racing I would say many more horses with explosive bursts like Gorella will NOT sustain that move as they stretch out severly. Certainly it is possible just not likely. As for Intercontinental, while I certainly gave her no shot last year, and in my case it was because I was never enamored with her as a horse more than a feeling about the distance, but as I pointed out before she wired the field and for that reason I am not sure her win can be considered a true measure of the overall talents of the field. Somehow I don't believe Gorella will be in a position to go wire to wire. I'm sure you won't argue that if a horse is to successfully negotiate a distance that is overall to far for him or her that victory is very likely to occur on the front end.
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#10
09-19-2006, 12:53 PM
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You are speculating that she will be at her best around one mile, and I am speculating that the extra 3/16 will not be a factor, especially if she can against her own sex.....it is all speculation.... ...we'll see what happens....I'll tell you this, Lady of Venice should not factor in the decision because she has NO prayer in any BC race.....I liked her a lot but she has been very disappointing....
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#11
09-21-2006, 02:29 AM
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Juv Fillies: Point Ashley-huge filly i think physically puts the others away
Juv: Horse Greeley Mile: Gorella-if she finds a opening in time and doesnt get blocked behind a wall of horses FM Turf: Ouija Board- if she can beat the boys back home she beats our girls i think here-but wait a while looks nice also Sprint: Henny Hughes- faster then a bullet and has done nothing wrong,destroyed his opp- war front as my backup Distaff: Pine Island-coming into her own at just the right time as long as she gets the pace-otherwise happy ticket, now heres a fighter Turf:Hurricane Run as long as shirocco is pointed to the classic. Classic: Bernardini-makes it look effortless, but will have to tested by older first, ask me after the jcgc.. from the heart and who i hope would win would be the drift but....as they said in Let It Ride =YOU NEVER KNOW- and a great story would be lava man but outside of cali i think he gets beat- horse that im very intrested in is shirocco-what if he runs on the dirt like he does the turf, that could be scary Last edited by pdrift1 : 09-21-2006 at 02:44 AM.
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#12
09-21-2006, 10:53 AM
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1985-Shadeed..4th @ 5/1(moved to 3rd via DQ) 1987-Milligram....13th @ 7/1 1988-Warning.....11th @ 9/5 1989-Zilzal.........6th @ 1/1 1990-Markofdistinction......7th @ 7/1 1993-Bigstone.......6th @ 12/1 1996-Mark of Esteem....7th @ 6/5 (part of an entry) 1998-Desert Prince.....14th @ 3/1 Interestingly, this race is similar to the Arc in that while no winners of either of these two races have gone on to win a BC race, quite a few of the losers have come over to win or run very well here. Among the QE losers to rebound and win the Mile are Miesque (1987), Barathea (1994), and Ridgewood Pearl (1995). I have noticed another trend lately. Because of the makeup of Ascot's course, a mile there is not a typical mile. Whereas in most miles, speed is key, at Ascot, stamina is more coveted. Look at some of the prominent QE finishers over the past six seasons: Dubai Millennium-1st 1999 Giant's Causeway-2nd 2000 Hawk Wing-2nd 2002 Falbrav-1st 2003 Rakti-1st 2004 Starcraft-1st 2005 All of those horses named were adept at running 8f but were seemingly better, at least in my opinion, at distances closer to 10f. If I were looking for an angle to use from this race, it would be to bring the winner over here to run in the Classic and an also-ran to run and do pretty well in the Mile.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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