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Old 10-19-2009, 09:16 AM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kgar311
Im calling foul, if your horse is really working 103 and change in the mornings how do you know what you have? When every one unloaded on this horse where they simply guessing that this might be a good horse? Not one work justified that this horse open up even money especially a first time 2year old filly starter coming out of the 12 hole.
You sometimes know. It is also the other way around. They can work lights out and then throw duds in the afternoon.

Works on paper mean absolutely NOTHING. I only look at the progression if that is even there.

A perfect example is something that is happening at Keeneland. There has been a bunch of horses that have been coming off layoffs and they have had only one work on the page, it is because they have been working on the guys farm or a layup facility, and those places don't have to give times.
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Old 10-19-2009, 09:35 AM
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King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
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I totally understand where kgar is coming from. There was simply nothing to indicate that horse should have been even money to open up. She was the co-sixth choice on the m/l (with three other horses) yet she opened at even money and ended up as the 5/2 favorite. Your first thought was that someone has come and put some money on her. Maybe they've been tipped that she's better than her m/l and is really live. When she ran away and hid from them, I was surprised but not really questioning it. These things happen, especially with firsters when nobody really knows what to expect. Then you see that winner's circle and think about those odds and you realize that everyone and their mother knew what to expect. I don't know that the clockers did their job incorrectly because those might have been actual work times. But, IMO, the odds maker did not do their job properly. Whether it was on purpose or an honest mistake, I couldn't say but there clearly was a strange feeling, and I'd even say it was a negative feeling, about the whole thing.
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