Are you ready for SA Showvivor?

[Dunbar]

A surprising 33 people dropped out yesterday, leaving 238 players. I'm listed as #236 because of my measely 2 winners in the 12 races. But the actual tiebreaker, if necessary, will depend on highest show prices.

My hypothetical $100 starting bankroll has climbed to $439 after 12 races.

There are several short fields today. My pre-scratch pick is the 2nd ML fav in the 5-horse 3rd: Star Redeemer.

--Dunbar

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

There are several short fields today. My pre-scratch pick is the 2nd ML fav in the 5-horse 3rd: Star Redeemer.

Going the same route with Star Redeemer in the 3rd, which is now a 4 horse race due to a scratch.

[gorvy]

This is a true survivor contest, too bad I missed it. I miss the NYRA ones too, although that one usually comes down to tie breakers. In my opinion, they should start the survivor contests at the beginning of each meet so that there would be no need for ties unless someone lasts the ENTIRE meet without running out.

[Dunbar]

Back to work! Just 7 people dropped out Sunday, and I think most of those were from forgetting to pick. I am now ranked 231st of the 231 survivors. No one else has as few as my 2 winners from the 13 races so far. I'm oddly proud of that.

The Showvivor webpage is screwed up today. Horses in the first 2 races are each listed twice. If you pick from those races, it lists your pick twice, too. They might decide it's too confusing and end up cancelling for today.

There are 3 scratches in the 3rd and 2 in the 6th, leaving 6 horses in each of those races, as well as in the first 2 races. My early pick is Tribal Face in the 1st.

--Dunbar

[mbahadur]

Probably going to go with Barbaric, dropping in class in the 4th race against an extremely weak 7-horse field.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

Probably going to go with Barbaric, dropping in class in the 4th race against an extremely weak 7-horse field.

Are you seeing the same double listings in the first 2 races that I am?

--Dunbar

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Are you seeing the same double listings in the first 2 races that I am?

Yes, I saw the same double listings in the first couple races.

Good job with your pick in the 1st race. I originally had Tribal Face but switched to my pick in the 4th race since the 1st race seemed to have a more competitive field.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

Probably going to go with Barbaric, dropping in class in the 4th race against an extremely weak 7-horse field.

You have a great chance to move forward if Tribal Face doesn't show. Here is the way people picked today: (from the oaktree.com website)

148 people selected #02 Tribal Face in race 1

72 people selected #06 Ranger Heartley in race 2

64 people selected #04 Cabo Chico in race 1

51 people selected #05 Barbaric in race 4

17 people selected #09 Coatcheck Girl in race 5

6 people selected #01A Spool's Gold in race 3

6 people selected #01A Spool in race 3

3 people selected #02 Obrigado in race 7

3 people selected #04 Pick to Click in race 8

2 people selected #02 Swiss Exploit in race 2

2 people selected #06 Twenty Hawks in race 1

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here is the way people picked today: (from the oaktree.com website)

148 people selected #02 Tribal Face in race 1

72 people selected #06 Ranger Heartley in race 2

64 people selected #04 Cabo Chico in race 1

51 people selected #05 Barbaric in race 4

17 people selected #09 Coatcheck Girl in race 5

6 people selected #01A Spool's Gold in race 3

6 people selected #01A Spool in race 3

3 people selected #02 Obrigado in race 7

3 people selected #04 Pick to Click in race 8

2 people selected #02 Swiss Exploit in race 2

2 people selected #06 Twenty Hawks in race 1

Those numbers can't be right because there are only 231 players left. They have almost certainly counted picks from the 1st 2 races twice. (if you halve the numbers for the 1st two races, the total picks is exactly 231.)

How hard is it to do this right, anyway?

Anyway, I made it past today. It looks like 33 people were knocked out in the 1st race.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

There are 3 scratches in the 3rd and 2 in the 6th, leaving 6 horses in each of those races, as well as in the first 2 races.

2 scratches in the 7th reduce that field to 6 horses, also.

--Dunbar