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#1
09-18-2006, 05:17 PM
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Quote:
You are sharp enough to know how fillies can get...don't discount her off of one bad effort...she is pretty darn talented...so is Indian Vale although she is probably done for good...the Shuvee also took out Smuggler, who I thought had a real shot at having a nice 4-year-old campaign....thats racing fillies for ya.... IMO, Oonagh McCool is the second best distaffer in the country aside from Happy Ticket...Now, whether she is right or not, I cannot answer that...Certainly, there is reason for concern at this point and the worries would be valid and understandable.... I don't think they'll beat Happy Ticket at CD in the Distaff if she is right...I really don't...But, then again I know her issues and what she is all about because of the Louisiana connections....they knew she would probably lose on that Del Mar track last out - but she loves the coushin at Churchill and will be fine there.... 
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#2
09-18-2006, 07:29 PM
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Sorry, but I never saw Oonagh MacCool's terrific performance. It must have taken place at the farm. What I saw was a nice horse that took advantage of good situations. What I also saw was a horse that came out of the blue and disappeared just as quickly. Seems to happen to a lot of those horses from that stable. I will be shocked if she returns and does so successfully. But, hey, I'm wrong all the time.
As for Happy Ticket....she's a very nice and neat horse but I don't have any confidence in her going two turns regardless of what she accomplished earlier this year. To be honest I have never been that big a fan of her chances against a tough field going long. Last edited by blackthroatedwind : 09-18-2006 at 10:25 PM.
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#3
09-18-2006, 11:14 PM
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B) Happy Ticket will win the Distaff...mark that down...How's that for a stance?...lol...If you hate her and OM, then who the hell do you like?....Don't even try to say you actually like a 3yo from this weak sophomore crop while holding a straight face, do you? I want to hear about your stance here....BTW, Happy Ticket won a very nice graded stake at CD (where the BC is) at the 1 1/8-mile Distaff distance and her sire won the 1 1/4-mile Super Derby...she is a freak...bottom line...you are way wrong about her ability to get a route of ground, BTW....she was just good enough to be top class around one turn.....no offense, man I'd love to hear which Distaffer you're leaning towards...
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#4
09-18-2006, 11:40 PM
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I want your definition of a freak.
You are biased towards horses from Churchill....don't ya think? Oonagh MacCool's Beyer speed figures were in the high 90s and she earned them with relatively soft trips. Hardly makes her special in my book. I never said I " hated " Happy Ticket. In fact, I like her as a horse, and said as much. I just don't think her best races are going 1 1/8. I also said this regardless of her win which I obviously knew was at Churchill....at the expense of the former racehorse Oonagh MacCool who I already said why I was not a big fan of. I certainly prefer horses that are performing well as we get close to the BC and neither of the horses we are discussing fit into that category. I think Todd Pletcher is an excellent trainer, to say the least, and he also runs an incredible operation. However, his record of both keeping horses together for a long period of time ( obviously there are exceptions ) and, more importantly, returning horses that appeared headed in the wrong direction is unimpressive. While I prefer to see how the final preps ( The Beldame, Spinster and Lady's Secret ) play out, I am inclined to like Pine Island and possibly Baletto as of now.
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#5
09-19-2006, 12:14 AM
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- I can see Baletto...but that big, clumsy thing that Shug has is beating up on a well-documented soft division and I'm surprised you would go with a 3yo knowing that...but then again, I know you're a Shug fan...can't really fault you for Baletto though...not trying to make fun of Pine Island but she is a plodder...believe me, I own a 2yo filly by Arch that we like and would like to see her win it, but realistically I know it is improbable she beats the likes of Happy Ticket when she struggled to get by Teammate.... - My definaition of a freak is an inferior bred La-bred who is good enough to be a Grade 1 winner at major race tracks around both one turn and two turns....I can't think of any other reason to call a horse a freak....she is a freakin Anet for God sakes and she fires everytime (other than when she seriously displaced in the BC last year)....she is better than her damn sire was and WAY better than any other of her sire's progeny, not even close....that is a freak in my book....what is your definition? - I have heard enough good things about you to know that you can't seriously be the type of handicapper/analyst who takes Beyer speed figs seriously in your formula for realizing good horses/performances, right?...Beyers are easily the most overated speed figs and the very reason we have false favorites in this game and people like me are able to make money off of people who bet those things....Check the Rag sheets for the real truth... - Oh, and I'm not biased towards CD horses by any stretch of the imagination...as a matter of fact, most of my favorite horses in training reside on the EAST coast --- over in your neck of the woods... -
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#6
09-19-2006, 12:29 AM
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Don't demean my like of Pine Island because, as you put it, " I'm a Shug fan ". Yeah, he's a great trainer, who specializes in improving and getting the most out of horses. However, he has run plenty of horses I didn't particularly like in the past, Smuggler for instance, and I don't bet on horses because I have an affinity for certain trainers. I root for horses my friends train, though I don't know Shug at all, but I only bet them if I like their chances.
I agree with your assessment of what makes Happy Ticket a " freak " and realized as much when I asked the question. I happen to hate the term, probably mostly because it is generally misused, though I can't fault your assessment of Happy Ticket in those terms. As for speed figures, they are at best a small part of my handicapping, but I do value the Beyer speed figures. I pay enough attention to the game that I can make my own assessments as to whether or not I agree with them in particular situations. If you like the Ragozin numbers that is certainly your perogative, I have however great problems with them ( and Thoro-graphs ), due to a number of factors which they take into account which I simply don't agree with ( weight ) and feel make the numbers seriously deceptive ( ground loss ). I believe those numbers can have value, and would NEVER suggest they aren't a very well thought out computation, I just believe I am better off using a raw speed figure, which I would qualify the Beyer numbers as, and then making my own interpretations about how they were earned. I would never suggest any number is the " real truth ", neither Beyer figs nor Ragozins, and can't believe any serious student of the game would do just that.
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