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Originally Posted by CSC
I think the stats are somewhat misleading in this case, High Chaparral finished 3rd in the Arc twice but also won the BC twice so I'm not sure what we can draw from this Arc jinx stat, Arc winners are a poor bet for other reasons, usually because they are an underlay.
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A lot of horses have lost the Arc and then won the BC. Same thing as the QE II and the Mile. Several have lost that race and won the Mile. But none have won both just as none have won the Arc and Turf.
I don't have any stats to look at but I've heard a lot of talk and seen a few runners from the BC that have run one more time during that same year after the BC and have suffered some big upsets. I just think it's more than a coincidence that none have won either of Europe's two big races for distance horses or miler and then come over here and won. I feel that you have a better chance of seeing one of those horses come out of those races and win a BC race if the BC has been on the agenda all along. Maybe they train them a little different and leave a little in the tank. I don't know. Maybe they skip a race earlier in the season so that they aren't as worn down at the end. But a horse like Sea the Stars, they had him set to peak at the Arc and the BC has never been set in stone.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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10-06-2009, 05:04 AM
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