Summer Bird could be HOY

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

OK, so how do you explain Zenyatta beating that slug last out by a nose if the slow pace didn't matter?

I'm sorry you don't understand how it can work both ways. It is pretty obvious when you make pace figures for a living. In the Past the Point race, Curlin ran about 10 Beyer points faster to the pace call than he did any other route race in his life to maintain his usual stalking position. Of course he wasn't going to have his usual finishing kick.

I wouldn't agree that the obvious hot pace in last year's Woodward really hurt Curlin's chances or led to him running a sub-par race. It only made him finish very slow .. though still faster than how all the others finished.

The 112 Beyer he got in that race was actually outright the 3rd best of his entire career.

Curlin's a naturally fast horse who won his debut wire-to-wire sprinting with a triple digit Beyer ... laying 5.5 lengths off of razor sharp alw horses rolling along up front should hinder them more so than him.

I don't think it's a case like a Point Given in the Ky Derby... because PG didn't have quite the raw speed of a Curlin.

In one extreme example, you're talking about a 3yo going 10fs in May while hung very wide on both turns chasing a scorching fast pace in a huge field very deep in talent.

In the Curlin Woodward example, you're talking about an older horse going 9fs chasing a very strong pace in a smaller field pretty much void of any other real Grade 1 talent.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Curlin's a naturally fast horse who won his debut wire-to-wire sprinting with a triple digit Beyer ... laying 5.5 lengths off of razor sharp alw horses rolling along up front should hinder them more so than him.

I don't think it's a case like a Point Given in the Ky Derby... because PG didn't have quite the raw speed of a Curlin.

That Curlin was long gone by the Derby. If I recall correctly, you posted quite extensively on PA about how Asmussen had taken all the speed out of him with all those long, slow gallops.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

That Curlin was long gone by the Derby. If I recall correctly, you posted quite extensively on PA about how Asmussen had taken all the speed out of him with all those long, slow gallops.

He didn't exactly train him the way Baffert would - that much is for sure.

Christ, he was only a length in front of AP Arrow after a half mile in that race. The whole field was going too fast. It's not like a case in this year's Woodward where you had one rider smart enough to position his horse WAY behind everyone else.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Curlin's North American wins.... and how his winning Beyer compares with other editions of the race this decade...


7f 3yo MSW at GP 102 Beyer (outright fastest 3yo MSW at GP going 7fs this decade)

Rebal Stakes at OP 99 Beyer (tied for 5th fastest of 10 highest Beyers this decade)

Arkansas Derby at OP 105 Beyer (5th fastest of 10 this decade)

Preakness Stakes - 111 Beyer (tied for 5th fastest of 10 this decade)

Jockey Club Gold - 114 Beyer (3 way tie for 4th fastest of 10 this decade)

Breeders Cup Classic - 119 Beyer (tied for 2nd fastest of 9 this decade)

Stephen Foster - 110 Beyer (tied for 6th fastest of 10 this decade)

Woodward - 112 Beyer (5th fastest of 10 this decade)

Jockey Club Gold Cup - 111 Beyer (tied for 8th fastest of 10 this decade)


The only two winning figures he's earned that aren't your middle of the road par type numbers for the class ... are his debut win and his blowout BC Classic win.

Not to take anything away from his dynamite race in the Classic .. but it did come over a very wet Monmouth race track that tends to produce exaggerated large margins of victory.

Ghostzapper ran a very conservative 128 Beyer on a wet Monmouth track - Rachel Alexandra's 116 over a wet Monmouth track is the fastest Haskell ever .. even including Holy Bull's and Skip Away's... and Phil seems to think her number could have been a lot faster. Curlin's 119 wasn't a conservative number imo.. but probably wasn't too high either.

Curlin was basically an excellent 3yo and a pretty good older horse who didn't develop and improve a whole lot from 3 to 4. He benifited from being the best 3yo of a solid enough but very overrated 3yo crop.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Curlin's North American wins.... and how his winning Beyer compares with other editions of the race this decade...

I understand Jerry Brown is way over the top on how he thinks horses have gotten faster the last 10 years or whatever it is. But I think Beyer is going overboard the opposite way. What has happened to the average Beyer in top class races the last five years? I have to imagine it has shrunk.

It has a lot to do with the differences between claimers and stakes horses in my opinion. It has changed quite a bit with the proliferation of slots. Notice how the stakes Beyers have shrunk at the big tracks for stakes races, while at the slots tracks they always seem to come back too high for their big money races?

Think on that for a few days before posting these historical comparisons.

One side note, it makes what Rachel is doing more impressive in my mind.