Summer Bird could be HOY

Cannon Shell · #1 10-03-2009, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

What do you think the chances are that Summer bird comes back at 4 1 in 8?

80%

freddymo · #2 10-03-2009, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

80%

Seriously..I hope you are right.. Consider he has won the Travers Belmont JCGC second to Rachel in the Haskell. IF??? he wins the Classic those odds go way down. Saw him at Monmouth and he is a very nice looking sort, apparently Birdstones are now in favor, I think he gets 100 mares at 20k(advertised) as well. Again I really hope he comes back at 4 they all should. If the friggin industry had ballz they would encourage them racing at 4. Perhaps NTRA could/would/should offer prepaid insurance to race thru 4 instead of this win and your in BS.

Cannon Shell · #3 10-03-2009, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

Seriously..I hope you are right.. Consider he has won the Travers Belmont JCGC second to Rachel in the Haskell. IF??? he wins the Classic those odds go way down. Saw him at Monmouth and he is a very nice looking sort, apparently Birdstones are now in favor, I think he gets 100 mares at 20k(advertised) as well. Again I really hope he comes back at 4 they all should. If the friggin industry had ballz they would encourage them racing at 4. Perhaps NTRA could/would/should offer prepaid insurance to race thru 4 instead of this win and your in BS.

I have no info that says otherwise but havent heard a peep about anyone standing this horse. 2 years ago? He would have already been signed and sealed. Would be nice to see some of the better 3yos next year so we can have a good older horse division again.

philcski · #4 10-03-2009, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

80%

agree- have not heard anything about him being syndicated to stand somewhere

(and hope, I really like this horse)

Merlinsky · #5 10-04-2009, 01:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

agree- have not heard anything about him being syndicated to stand somewhere

(and hope, I really like this horse)

Yeah I don't see how they could afford to rush anybody off to stud unless they were some royal blue blood too fragile to risk it horse. All the better for us.

From what I could see of him coming back to the winner's circle (check the Bloodhorse video, they've got 5+ minutes including the race) he sure has the look I've always liked, not the compact muscle-bound thing some go for. It's more old school which is fitting because his trainer's got that vibe for all his newness at this level. I want SB to keep going especially so that Tim Ice can have him for another year. I think if ever a guy deserved to have a horse like that come back, it's Tim. It'd be another opportunity to showcase handling a top horse and get some more owners involved with his operation.

As much as I like SB, and I like him a lot, I just don't see him getting HOY over The Anointed One aka Rachel. I see her letting Calvin put her wherever he wants to at whatever speed he needs to to beat SB, she's that tractable. That's part of what makes her so amazing, and they all know it. Tim's flat out said she deserved it hasn't he? I could've sworn he said it on At the Races, or certainly implied it.

jballscalls · #6 10-04-2009, 04:54 AM

Summer Bird has had an amazing year and most years would be a serious serious candidate for horse of the year. He just happened to run in the same year as a 3 year old filly who is 8 for 8 and beat boys 3 times in grade 1's.

He is probably the favorite for the place spot in the horse of the year balloting though, with Zenyatta in the show spot if she wins out.

Round Pen · #7 10-04-2009, 07:20 AM

I realize it will never happen But lets See RA and SB run Against each other Going a Mile and a 1/4 I don't think she can beat him.

IF you think the Synthetic surface is the only reason RA is staying away from the BC you are sadly mistaken. Although it is not the Main reason but the distance of the Classic was a concern

Danzig · #8 10-04-2009, 07:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Round Pen

I realize it will never happen But lets See RA and SB run Against each other Going a Mile and a 1/4 I don't think she can beat him. IF you think the Synthetic surface is the only reason RA is staying away from the BC you are sadly mistaken. Although it is not the Main reason but the distance of the Classic was a concern

i disagree on both statements.

rachel soundly defeated summer bird. that is a fact. thoughts on what could happen is conjecture and opinion. the fact she ran the preakness while pressured throughout and won at 1/16th shorter would give me NO pause at thinking she could handle that extra half furlong. taking the way that race was run by her as how it would be run at 10f, and what she would do at the end is a stretch of the imagination imo.

parsixfarms · #9 10-04-2009, 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

i disagree on both statements.

rachel soundly defeated summer bird. that is a fact. thoughts on what could happen is conjecture and opinion. the fact she ran the preakness while pressured throughout and won at 1/16th shorter would give me NO pause at thinking she could handle that extra half furlong. taking the way that race was run by her as how it would be run at 10f, and what she would do at the end is a stretch of the imagination imo.

Horses' form is not static. We wager on races every day trying to figure out why Horse A, who was beaten by Horse B in a given race, may not be able to do it again. I don't think there's any doubt that Summer Bird, in his 7th and 8th career lifetime starts, has improved since the Haskell. Also, the Woodward showed the effects that a long, impressive campaign had upon Rachel Alexandra. I know that it's just "opinion and conjecture'", but given what's transpired since the Haskell, had Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra raced against each other yesterday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, I think the outcome of the Haskell was likely to be reversed.

Kasept · #10 10-04-2009, 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

agree- have not heard anything about him being syndicated to stand somewhere

(and hope, I really like this horse)

Dr. J has been approached and is in most serious conversation with Gainesway and Stonewall. Many others have contacted him as well.

Only an injury would prevent Summer Bird from running as a 4 year old.

freddymo · #11 10-04-2009, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Dr. J has been approached and is in most serious conversation with Gainesway and Stonewall. Many others have contacted him as well.

Only an injury would prevent Summer Bird from running as a 4 year old.

Steve it is always an injury that keeps them from racing at 4..lol

You think if he wins the Classic he won't have a micro fraction 3 weeks later? lol

Kasept · #12 10-04-2009, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

Steve it is always an injury that keeps them from racing at 4..lol

You think if he wins the Classic he won't have a micro fraction 3 weeks later? lol

Dr. J wants to run. He and the wife were thinking of getting out of the business... He said this week that he's waited a long time to have a horse like this and that they're having too much fun. He bred the dam. He bred Summer Bird. He wants more! You should have seen him yesterday.

I talked to Ice about it this morning, and he said the only thing that keeps him off the track next year is a serious injury.

CSC · #13 10-04-2009, 09:30 AM

Which brings us back to the original post, if he wins the BC Classic next month, which is certainly not a certainty, he deserves to have a few votes cast his way for HOY. He's get mine if I had one.

freddymo · #14 10-04-2009, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Dr. J wants to run. He and the wife were thinking of getting out of the business... He said this week that he's waited a long time to have a horse like this and that they're having too much fun. He bred the dam. He bred Summer Bird. He wants more! You should have seen him yesterday.

I talked to Ice about it this morning, and he said the only thing that keeps him off the track next year is a serious injury.

Or 30 million..Look you know I would love to see him race I just figure if he wins the Classic there is zero shot..I can't even blame the owners if they dont race 30 mil is a lot of G1 wins.. Not sure the environment is 30mil friendly but you have no clue what could emerge with a BC Classic win.

Cannon Shell · #15 10-04-2009, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

Or 30 million..Look you know I would love to see him race I just figure if he wins the Classic there is zero shot..I can't even blame the owners if they dont race 30 mil is a lot of G1 wins.. Not sure the environment is 30mil friendly but you have no clue what could emerge with a BC Classic win.

No way he will get 30 million and why wouldnt he just wait till next year anyway? A big year next year and he will get just as much and may be dealing from strength in a better economic climate.