Breeders Cup Turf winners 1999-2008

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Of course it is conjecture but again you are comparing established older horse form to an abbreviated career. Not saying that Johar was going to be better than those but the fact was his 2 fairly run races as a 4 year old were pretty damn good. And if he was good enough on his best day to DH with the 2nd best horse on the list than he surely had the potential to be at least as good s the rest if he had been given the chance. It wasnt as though he was some bum as BWS is trying to imply.

I do like that you called me out, when I've been much nicer than several others posting about him.

With that said...

I'm fairly confident that my assessment is much closer to spot on than that one borderline unbelievable post in here that was trying to imply that a nose win over Rock Opera was going to be a springboard to a BC Turf win.

I never said he was terrible. I stand by the assertion that EVERYONE else here but you and IC is trying to say -- that he ran a huge race in the BC....but on that list, he's just not that good compared to them, you know, the original point of the thread.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I'm fairly confident that my assessment is much closer to spot on than that one borderline unbelievable post in here that was trying to imply that a nose win over Rock Opera was going to be a springboard to a BC Turf win.

Itsallgreektome won a Grade 3 at Bay Meadows against fellow 3yos before nearly taking down the BC Mile in '90. It goes back to the idea that young horses can progress fairly rapidly.

While in 2002 Indian Charlie would have been dodging tomatoes for predicting such, the fact that Johar DID win the BC Turf the following year takes a lot of the absurdity out of the prediction.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Itsallgreektome won a Grade 3 at Bay Meadows against fellow 3yos before nearly taking down the BC Mile in '90. It goes back to the idea that young horses can progress fairly rapidly.

While in 2002 Indian Charlie would have been dodging tomatoes for predicting such, the fact that Johar DID win the BC Turf the following year takes a lot of the absurdity out of the prediction.

Except for the fact that they're a year apart and don't really have anything to do with each other.

Obviously Johar was a better horse the year he won the BC Turf. The idea that a desperate nose winner over Rock Opera was going to go win the BC Turf in his next start (no less after seeing how it was won....) is made no less absurd because the horse won the BC turf over a year later. Non sequiter.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Except for the fact that they're a year apart and don't really have anything to do with each other.

Obviously Johar was a better horse the year he won the BC Turf. The idea that a desperate nose winner over Rock Opera was going to go win the BC Turf in his next start (no less after seeing how it was won....) is made no less absurd because the horse won the BC turf over a year later. Non-sequiter.

So let me get this straight, you can compare BC winners over a ten year period, but I can't compare the 2002 Johar to the 2003 Johar? Interesting.

And what exactly made Johar go from 2002 goat to 2003 monster? A change of calendars? A flick of a switch?

Remember, he sat most of 2003 on the bench. Mandella got him into top form on BC day, and maybe he was still improving at the same time, but anybody who happened to like him that day was probably basing their support on his San Marcos effort way back in January. That is when he became a BC contender. What was that, about 8 weeks after he nostrilized Rock Opera?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

So let me get this straight, you can compare BC winners over a ten year period, but I can't compare the 2002 Johar to the 2003 Johar? Interesting.

And what exactly made Johar go from 2002 goat to 2003 monster? A change of calendars? A flick of a switch?

Remember, he sat most of 2003 on the bench. Mandella got him into top form on BC day, and maybe he was still improving at the same time, but anybody who happened to like him that day was probably basing their support on his San Marcos effort way back in January. That is when he became a BC contender. What was that, about 8 weeks after he nostrilized Rock Opera?

One, I'm not doing much comparing at all, just pointing out that I don't have a hard-on for Johar and his optional-claiming photo-finish friend from that big win that we're to believe would have catapulted him to BC glory mere weeks later. I wouldn't personally rank Shirocco that high on the list, but I have not been really actively participating in the ranking here. Just been more involved in discussing the absurdity of the idea that Johar should be above anyone besides perhaps Better Talk Now on that list.

Two, for years and years now I've been saying that Volponi would have won the 2001 BC Classic. Unfortunately, it's taken 8 years and your wisdom to finally let me know that I can take credit for that because he validated that the next year, meaning that the idea of him being nose and nose with Tiznow and Sahkee down the Belmont stretch is not, in fact, completely ludicrous, because you know, any horse who won a BC race at any point in their career could have won the same division in any given year.....

ps, I also loved Ginger Punch in the '06 Distaff off that allowance race at Keeneland. If only they'd have gone there for her stakes debut instead of to that second-level allowance at Churchill!

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Two, for years and years now I've been saying that Volponi would have won the 2001 BC Classic. Unfortunately, it's taken 8 years and your wisdom to finally let me know that I can take credit for that because he validated that the next year, meaning that the idea of him being nose and nose with Tiznow and Sahkee down the Belmont stretch is not, in fact, completely ludicrous, because you know, any horse who won a BC race at any point in their career could have won the same division in any given year.....

The irony being that the horse Johar dead-heated with DID in fact win the BC Turf the year before.

But I get your point. Of course, I never suggested the idea in the first place.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Except for the fact that they're a year apart and don't really have anything to do with each other.

Obviously Johar was a better horse the year he won the BC Turf. The idea that a desperate nose winner over Rock Opera was going to go win the BC Turf in his next start (no less after seeing how it was won....) is made no less absurd because the horse won the BC turf over a year later. Non sequiter.

Was Rock Opera really that bad? I recall him as a pretty good horse.

[King Glorious]

One thing that should be considered when judging the European runners is that the BC Turf is often not their goal but often an afterthought. For a lot of them, the Arc is their main goal and then they come over here for one more race after they've been primed for their best effort. For most American runners, the BC is their goal race and the one they are trained to be at their best for. I think that makes a big difference.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One thing that should be considered when judging the European runners is that the BC Turf is often not their goal but often an afterthought. For a lot of them, the Arc is their main goal and then they come over here for one more race after they've been primed for their best effort. For most American runners, the BC is their goal race and the one they are trained to be at their best for. I think that makes a big difference.

That may have been a more significant issue in the early years of the BC. Nowadays, with $2 million dollars on the line, and even richer races further down the road in Japan and Hong Kong, I don't think European trainers are viewing these races as mere "afterthoughts".

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That may have been a more significant issue in the early years of the BC. Nowadays, with $2 million dollars on the line, and even richer races further down the road in Japan and Hong Kong, I don't think European trainers are viewing these races as mere "afterthoughts".

Maybe afterthought is the wrong word. But the purse of the BC doesn't make it a bigger target race than the Arc. The Derby could be for $500k and it would still be the biggest race of the year for 3yos. Winning a $100k race at Saratoga would mean more than winning a $500k race at Presque Isle for most people. The Arc is the one that they shoot for. What we've seen more of lately is that some are chosing the BC and skipping the Arc, maybe using the Irish Champion Stakes as their Arc prep. In that case, you might see a European runner come in at top form but I can't help but think that the reason we have never seen an Arc winner come over and win the BC Turf is because they've already passed their peak. I already know your next question; why have we seen a number of Arc also-rans come over and win? I'm working on that.