Midshipman returns Friday in BEL 3rd (2:04pm)

[TropicalStorm]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Like most good horses(and most of the rivals he may face in the BC) he is versatile and handles the pro-ride just fine. I don't think Midshipman has any significant advantage over the surface per se.

Most would argue a horse with a with a grade 1 win over the surface is an advantage over horses that have not even run on the surface. I do agree though that horses will like it or not like it. I do not like the Jess Jackson argument about the surface. It really is not different than running over an off track or a rock hard track. The horse will take to it or he or she will not.

I do think Midshipman is very dangerous in the BC Dirt Mile though but he will be overbet.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

I do think Midshipman is very dangerous in the BC Dirt Mile though but he will be overbet.

Why exactly is this horse dangerous?

Do you expect them to go, essentially, 1-2-3 around the track in this year's MILE? Doubtful. Do you expect him to shut off the rail late stretch and thus block what might've been a winning move by a horse to his inside, again? Good luck.

Terrible action by this horse in the lane today. Either he's sore as hell or he doesn't handle dirt well. (From the pan shot, he handled the POLY real well).

I find it comical that the first comment by a prominent DIRT LOVER was something to the effect that the horse had wasted its time on POLY.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

I do agree though that horses will like it or not like it.

that isn't really what I am saying at all.

My point is that most good horses are versatile enough to handle the pro-ride surface just fine. I am not saying that handling the surface is a big issue. - most of the horses that are good enough to make it to the BC Mile also happen to be versatile enough that they will like pro-ride just fine. The surface isn't a big deal. There may be one or two with extremely one-dimensional running styles or pedigrees and those are the exceptions, the other nine or ten or whatever runners will race according to their ability and opportunity. For most players, handicapping will be just like any other race - gain an accurate insight of the reality of the sport. Only then would you look for bias - first those bias with the betting public, and then maybe as it pertains to forwardly placed runners or closers.

[TropicalStorm]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

that isn't really what I am saying at all.

My point is that most good horses are versatile enough to handle the pro-ride surface just fine. I am not saying that handling the surface is a big issue. - most of the horses that are good enough to make it to the BC Mile also happen to be versatile enough that they will like pro-ride just fine. The surface isn't a big deal. There may be one or two with extremely one-dimensional running styles or pedigrees and those are the exceptions, the other nine or ten or whatever runners will race according to their ability and opportunity. For most players, handicapping will be just like any other race - gain an accurate insight of the reality of the sport. Only then would you look for bias - first those bias with the betting public, and then maybe as it pertains to forwardly placed runners or closers.

I disagree with a good horse being versatile enough to handle a certain surface as well as another. The surface is a big deal too. You can take a horse that is a 110 beyer horse on the dirt and he could still be a very good horse on the pro-ride but more of a 100 beyer horse. In the Breeders Cup it is very important the horse likes the surface because at that level of competition there is certain to be a horse in every race that runs well on the surface.

There are your Zenyatta's and Colonel John's that run well on both and there are your horses that are clearly better on dirt or better on a synthetic.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

Most would argue a horse with a with a grade 1 win over the surface is an advantage over horses that have not even run on the surface. I do agree though that horses will like it or not like it. I do not like the Jess Jackson argument about the surface. It really is not different than running over an off track or a rock hard track. The horse will take to it or he or she will not.

I do think Midshipman is very dangerous in the BC Dirt Mile though but he will be overbet.

Pretty false. While there obviously are some horses who either love or hate slop/highways, there are many more who either love or hate synthetics. It's not an alterated dirt track, it's a third surface. Quick, how many horses can you name that are GSWs winners on dirt and synthetics? Bet I can name more than have won graded stakes over fast and off tracks.

[TropicalStorm]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Pretty false. While there obviously are some horses who either love or hate slop/highways, there are many more who either love or hate synthetics. It's not an alterated dirt track, it's a third surface. Quick, how many horses can you name that are GSWs winners on dirt and synthetics? Bet I can name more than have won graded stakes over fast and off tracks.

Actually you are twisting what I said. My point was that horses take to the track or they don't which is absolutely true. There is nothing false about my statement if you read it correctly.

And your argument doesn't really hold any weight unless you can give me percentages. Of course more horses have won on dirt and off tracks because they run most of their races on dirt. And I have no idea what GSW has to do with anything. The point was horses (claimers or graded stakes winners) either take to the track or they do not. Many trainers have pointed this out repeatedly when they ship their horses in a day or two before a race instead of a week before the race.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

Most would argue a horse with a with a grade 1 win over the surface is an advantage over horses that have not even run on the surface. I do agree though that horses will like it or not like it. I do not like the Jess Jackson argument about the surface. It really is not different than running over an off track or a rock hard track. The horse will take to it or he or she will not.

I do think Midshipman is very dangerous in the BC Dirt Mile though but he will be overbet.

I really dont think he will be overbet, off of his 2 yr old championship and todays comeback he will be what he should be. Its up to us to either try to beat him or lean on him.

[TropicalStorm]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I really dont think he will be overbet, off of his 2 yr old championship and todays comeback he will be what he should be. Its up to us to either try to beat him or lean on him.

You could be right but I would guess he will be overbet on reputation alone and I think that race will have some prominent European grass milers in it who do not want to face Goldikova on the turf.

As for what he should be, I think he should be 30-1 if the field is just an average group and I would guess he will be 10-1 or shorter. So I think he will be overbet.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

Most would argue a horse with a with a grade 1 win over the surface is an advantage over horses that have not even run on the surface. I do agree though that horses will like it or not like it. I do not like the Jess Jackson argument about the surface. It really is not different than running over an off track or a rock hard track. The horse will take to it or he or she will not.

I do think Midshipman is very dangerous in the BC Dirt Mile though but he will be overbet.

I don't see how that's right. How can a horse have an advantage over a horse that might be better than him on a given surface? They might be a more known commodity but that doesn't mean they have an advantage. Did the horses facing Secretariat in the Man o'War have an advantage over him because they had history on the surface and he didn't? Did the horses in the BC Turf in 1989 have an advantage over Prized? You can't have an advantage over another if that other is better than you on that surface. The thing is that you just don't know if they are better or not because they haven't tried it.