Midshipman returns Friday in BEL 3rd (2:04pm)

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

If by lots you mean two then yes. Unbridled Danger and More Than a Reason are claimers and Knights Cross is a useful allowance animal even if he's trained by Gales' favorite conditioner.

Just Ben will make things tough on him and the return of Storm Play is interesting as well. Good for Richard Migliore to have gotten in good with Godolphin, he also has the mount on Regal Ransom in the Super Derby on Saturday.

NT

I said hurdles, not horses. I clearly mean those 2.... I mean first time racing on dirt, and first time off long layoff w/ an injury. Are those not legit hurdles?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I said hurdles, not horses. I clearly mean those 2.... I mean first time racing on dirt, and first time off long layoff w/ an injury. Are those not legit hurdles?

I happen to think he's going to have zero problems with dirt. Horses like Just Ben, yes, will be a huge problem for him.

NT

[Bobby Fischer]

this race answers some questions about his health, and we get to see his conformation again

I was disappointed when he got hurt. I realy liked his pedigree and thought he was going to improve with distance.

At this point I am starting from scratch in terms of evaluating him.

[TropicalStorm]

Midshipman looked very good putting Just Ben away in the stretch. The time was very solid but he did drift out tremendously. He is a dangerous horse in the BC Mile considering we know he likes the track.

[CSC]

The Boys in Blue seem to be in good form of late.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by CSC

The Boys in Blue seem to be in good form of late.

Gearing up for a late season charge into the Breeder's Cup!

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Gearing up for a late season charge into the Breeder's Cup!

Really, they are loaded. Its a shame these horses missed the derby. I think Giralamo and Midshipman compare well to Nile and Bird.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

He is a dangerous horse in the BC Mile considering we know he likes the track.

Like most good horses(and most of the rivals he may face in the BC) he is versatile and handles the pro-ride just fine. I don't think Midshipman has any significant advantage over the surface per se.

[TropicalStorm]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Like most good horses(and most of the rivals he may face in the BC) he is versatile and handles the pro-ride just fine. I don't think Midshipman has any significant advantage over the surface per se.

Most would argue a horse with a with a grade 1 win over the surface is an advantage over horses that have not even run on the surface. I do agree though that horses will like it or not like it. I do not like the Jess Jackson argument about the surface. It really is not different than running over an off track or a rock hard track. The horse will take to it or he or she will not.

I do think Midshipman is very dangerous in the BC Dirt Mile though but he will be overbet.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

I do think Midshipman is very dangerous in the BC Dirt Mile though but he will be overbet.

Why exactly is this horse dangerous?

Do you expect them to go, essentially, 1-2-3 around the track in this year's MILE? Doubtful. Do you expect him to shut off the rail late stretch and thus block what might've been a winning move by a horse to his inside, again? Good luck.

Terrible action by this horse in the lane today. Either he's sore as hell or he doesn't handle dirt well. (From the pan shot, he handled the POLY real well).

I find it comical that the first comment by a prominent DIRT LOVER was something to the effect that the horse had wasted its time on POLY.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

I do agree though that horses will like it or not like it.

that isn't really what I am saying at all.

My point is that most good horses are versatile enough to handle the pro-ride surface just fine. I am not saying that handling the surface is a big issue. - most of the horses that are good enough to make it to the BC Mile also happen to be versatile enough that they will like pro-ride just fine. The surface isn't a big deal. There may be one or two with extremely one-dimensional running styles or pedigrees and those are the exceptions, the other nine or ten or whatever runners will race according to their ability and opportunity. For most players, handicapping will be just like any other race - gain an accurate insight of the reality of the sport. Only then would you look for bias - first those bias with the betting public, and then maybe as it pertains to forwardly placed runners or closers.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

Most would argue a horse with a with a grade 1 win over the surface is an advantage over horses that have not even run on the surface. I do agree though that horses will like it or not like it. I do not like the Jess Jackson argument about the surface. It really is not different than running over an off track or a rock hard track. The horse will take to it or he or she will not.

I do think Midshipman is very dangerous in the BC Dirt Mile though but he will be overbet.

Pretty false. While there obviously are some horses who either love or hate slop/highways, there are many more who either love or hate synthetics. It's not an alterated dirt track, it's a third surface. Quick, how many horses can you name that are GSWs winners on dirt and synthetics? Bet I can name more than have won graded stakes over fast and off tracks.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

Most would argue a horse with a with a grade 1 win over the surface is an advantage over horses that have not even run on the surface. I do agree though that horses will like it or not like it. I do not like the Jess Jackson argument about the surface. It really is not different than running over an off track or a rock hard track. The horse will take to it or he or she will not.

I do think Midshipman is very dangerous in the BC Dirt Mile though but he will be overbet.

I really dont think he will be overbet, off of his 2 yr old championship and todays comeback he will be what he should be. Its up to us to either try to beat him or lean on him.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

Most would argue a horse with a with a grade 1 win over the surface is an advantage over horses that have not even run on the surface. I do agree though that horses will like it or not like it. I do not like the Jess Jackson argument about the surface. It really is not different than running over an off track or a rock hard track. The horse will take to it or he or she will not.

I do think Midshipman is very dangerous in the BC Dirt Mile though but he will be overbet.

I don't see how that's right. How can a horse have an advantage over a horse that might be better than him on a given surface? They might be a more known commodity but that doesn't mean they have an advantage. Did the horses facing Secretariat in the Man o'War have an advantage over him because they had history on the surface and he didn't? Did the horses in the BC Turf in 1989 have an advantage over Prized? You can't have an advantage over another if that other is better than you on that surface. The thing is that you just don't know if they are better or not because they haven't tried it.