Summer Bird pointed for The BC

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by CSC

I wouldn't say running against the unbeaten Candy Ride or running against Medaglia D'oro as these 2 met in Pacific Classic that year is an accurate illustration of anyone being scared of anyone nevermind Mineshaft. Have you seen that race? It was simply one of the most impressive Pacific Classic's ever

The sad thing is that in a few short years we have gone from talking about some pretty good older horses ducking other to Dry Martini, Bullsbay and Macho Again.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The sad thing is that in a few short years we have gone from talking about some pretty good older horses ducking other to Dry Martini, Bullsbay and Macho Again.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The sad thing is that in a few short years we have gone from talking about some pretty good older horses ducking other to Dry Martini, Bullsbay and Macho Again.

I know it's almost too funny...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I see no reason to believe RA will sux on Pro Ride. DrugS seems to think that she will be slaughtered on it but that is based on her trainers lack of success and not RA.

Not just the overwhelming Asmussen on synthetics issue ... but her style could not possibly be suited any worse for any kind of distance/surface combo than a 10 furlong race on that Santa Anita pro ride.

Hystericalady was without question the best two-turn dirt female last year. She was 0-for-6 lifetime on synthetics, squandered several dream trips over it, and even once sunk bridgejumpers on it.

Here's the dirt route form she had in her PP's going into the Distaff ...





As you can see, she has the same identical style as RA. Excellent natural speed - and a dominant burst between the quarter pole and eigth pole that breaks open races. In the only loss, a narrow defeat in the BC Distaff, she was open lengths best while four to five wide both turns on a hot pace and just missing to a dream trip winner.

Fabulous Strike .. same thing .. excellent speed but his dominant section has always been from the quarter pole to the eigth pole. It's Munnings best part of a race as well. Those two disgraced themselves in last years BC and won't be going back.

Look at Past the Point, speed horse with dominance through that section on dirt .. can't hit the board at Golden Gate on synthetic.

It's obviously not just stakes horses with that style who mostly struggle bad on syn .. it's all types.

It's different kind of racing. If Curlin's in 8th place while 9 lengths off of 47.60 and 1:11.60 dirt fractions .. he might finish 4th .. but he's losing to 3 horses positioned WELL in front of him. He's not having 3 horses blow by him in the stretch while finishing totally empty.


Because of the overwhelming Asmussen thing, I'd be dead against RA in that race if her style suited the track and distance perfectly.

But Rail Trip won his debut wire-to-wire going 6 furlongs over synthetic with a triple digit Beyer... she's got to hook him, she's got to deal with the fact that her best weapon .. an explosive burst off the turn .. almost certainly won't work at all. She's got to deal with the fact that Asmussen horses run light years better on dirt than synthetic.

I haven't bet against her once this year ... but if she runs in the Classic she's a monumental bet against ... and I don't think she goes down like a warrior slugging it out for 3rd with a Tiago type and just getting the worst of that show battle. I think she gets beat 20 or 30 lengths and runs way too bad to be true.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The sad thing is that in a few short years we have gone from talking about some pretty good older horses ducking other to Dry Martini, Bullsbay and Macho Again.

It would be sad enough if we were talking about those horses and bemoaning just how bad the division has become but it's REALLY sad that these horses are being trumped as good horses simply because they won big name races that someone had to win.

[CSC]

Which may mean she is only a great filly on dirt, she's one dimensional. Like it or not Zenyatta has won on both surfaces, Careless Jewel has won on both also or atleast shown she can handle both. In this instance they are superior to her unless she can prove she can win on Poly also. Brilliant probably not as her...but certainly more versatile which to me is also a factor in determining a great horse.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by CSC

Which may mean she is only a great filly on dirt, like it or not Zenyatta has won on both surfaces, Careless Jewel has won on both also or atleast shown she can handle both. In this instance they are superior to her unless she can prove she can win on Poly also. Brilliant probably not...but certainly more versatile which to me is also a factor in determining greatness.

Winning on dirt over Brownie Points makes you superior?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Which may mean she is only a great filly on dirt, she's one dimensional. Like it or not Zenyatta has won on both surfaces, Careless Jewel has won on both also or atleast shown she can handle both. In this instance they are superior to her unless she can prove she can win on Poly also. Brilliant probably not...but certainly more versatile which to me is also a factor in determining greatness.

She's already won on poly at Kee.

If Asmussen trained Zenyatta and Careless Jewel .. the best syn female in the country would probably be those claimers Briecat and Anayabab's Creation.

Maybe Informed Decision can go long?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Winning on dirt over Brownie Points makes you superior?

You want the beyer answer, when in doubt always refer to beyers. They are the determining factor.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

She's already won on poly at Kee.

I don't understand then, why the reluctance to run at SA unless you don't believe you are not going to win.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

I don't understand then, why the reluctance to run at SA unless you don't believe you are going to win.

They aren't going because they're stubborn and they don't like the surface... they might even cave like they did last year.

They aren't threatening to pass because they've been handicapping the situation and think they won't win.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

They aren't going because they're stubborn and they don't like the surface... they might even cave like they did last year.

They aren't threatening to pass because they've handicapping the situation and think they won't win.

If they don't go there and surely Zenyatta will not fly in for the Beldame, maybe they will get brave and try the JCGC and Summer Bird. But I'm sure Jess sees the improvement in SB and may be handicapping that situation also.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Rachel Alexandra will beat Summer Bird like a drum.

[CSC]

I don't think so...

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rachel Alexandra will beat Summer Bird like a drum.

Again.

[CSC]

Again I don't think so....

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

Again I don't think so....

I'll give you credit for standing by your opinion on this despite taking it from all sides.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rachel Alexandra will beat Summer Bird like a drum.

If the race is at distance and at a Track having a bias that heavily favors RA you are right. Any other Distance / Track it is a moot point becuase RA won't be there. She is being managed not to ever be put in a situation that isn't heavily tilted in her favor. This won't be lost on those voting for HOY.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by jms62

If the race is at distance and at a Track having a bias that heavily favors RA you are right. Any other Distance / Track it is a moot point becuase RA won't be there. She is being managed not to ever be put in a situation that isn't heavily tilted in her favor. This won't be lost on those voting for HOY.

What horse isn't being campaigned in the best possible place to WIN?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'll give you credit for standing by your opinion on this despite taking it from all sides.

Thanks Travis, however it is an easy position to take if you really believe it and I really believe in this horse at that distance and that track. I think RA has a few things to prove yet, no matter how brilliant she has been thus far. I suspect I may have to go offline Sat-Sun because of the possible love in on this board after she wins the Woodward. I won't rehash the reasons, really I am tired of saying the same things over and over again however creatively I try to deliver them. One thing I will add with the Beyer argument, the discrepancy once grand canyon like is not so large at all. 110 and 117 is not an insurmountable difference in horseracing and I don't see why any knowledgable horseracing person as we have many on this board would say he would be trounced by her so matter of factly.