Summer Bird pointed for The BC

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

You have the biggest hard on for this filly. She has beat the Ky Derby winner, Travers winner, Belmont winner, Ark winner, etc etc.. Add the Woodward, and put in context winning the Preakness short, switching barns coming off a huge G1 20 length score. Do you really think she wouldn't have slaughtered Summer Bird in the Travers? I really like Summer Bird and he is a very nice G1 colt but he can't get within 5 or 6 lengths of her. Rachel is getting better we haven't seen the bottom. A Woodward win secures Horse of the Year period.. If she loses the Woodward and Summer Bird wins JCGC and Classic (he won't) then SB has a claim if Rachel doesn't beat Zenyatta in the Beldame or wins Beldame and decides to crush in the Disstaff..

No I dont have a hard on for the filly in any way. While I admit that Jackson is not a favorite the logic of saying that a Belmont, Travers, Gold Cup and BC Classic winner isnt a horse of the year contender over a Oaks, Preakness, Haskell, Woodward winner is unusual.

Switching barns has no bearing on the award and you thinking we havent seen her bottom doesnt either. While Beyers are not an end all the thought that she would have whipped a horse that just won a grade 1 easily with a 110 beyer is laughable. If you read through my scenario you would have not seen any RA running in any races after the Woodward (which absolutely wont happen if she were to lose or even win in a less than impressive manner. Lori was saying that RA had the thing wrapped up regardless. I dont think that is true.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

No I dont have a hard on for the filly in any way. While I admit that Jackson is not a favorite the logic of saying that a Belmont, Travers, Gold Cup and BC Classic winner isnt a horse of the year contender over a Oaks, Preakness, Haskell, Woodward winner is unusual.

Switching barns has no bearing on the award and you thinking we havent seen her bottom doesnt either. While Beyers are not an end all the thought that she would have whipped a horse that just won a grade 1 easily with a 110 beyer is laughable. If you read through my scenario you would have not seen any RA running in any races after the Woodward (which absolutely wont happen if she were to lose or even win in a less than impressive manner. Lori was saying that RA had the thing wrapped up regardless. I dont think that is true.

When she wins The Woodward HOY is over, Until she wins the Woodward anything could happen with HOY. Even Mine That Bird has an outside shot although he would have to win 2 more races in a huge way. Rachel whipped Summer Bird once she will whip him everytime they run a square race. She is much faster the Summer Bird. As for the rest of the male slugs colts and or horses they stink as well. Maybe Quality Road could beat Rachel in a 1 turn mile but I question that outcome as well. I have a feeling Quality Road is about to have a phathom career ending injury any minute.. He has done enough..

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by freddymo

When she wins The Woodward HOY is over, Until she wins the Woodward anything could happen with HOY. Even Mine That Bird has an outside shot although he would have to win 2 more races in a huge way. Rachel whipped Summer Bird once she will whip him everytime they run a square race. She is much faster the Summer Bird. As for the rest of the male slugs colts and or horses they stink as well. Maybe Quality Road could beat Rachel in a 1 turn mile but I question that outcome as well. I have a feeling Quality Road is about to have a phathom career ending injury any minute.. He has done enough..

I keep reading how no one could beat Rachel in a "square race"? What is that? If the older males challenge her and the early fractions in the Woodward are fast (say, 46.1, 1:10), would that be an "unfair" race?

By the way, those were the fractions from the Whitney, which were considerably faster than those set in the Preakness, and no one suggested that the 8YO Commentator had been unfairly treated.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I keep reading how no one could beat Rachel in a "square race"? What is that? If the older males challenge her and the early fractions in the Woodward are fast (say, 46.1, 1:10), would that be an "unfair" race?

By the way, those were the fractions from the Whitney, which were considerably faster than those set in the Preakness, and no one suggested that the 8YO Commentator had been unfairly treated.

If no one has suggested that yet then let me be the first. Lezcano destroyed the only two decent race horses in that races for no explicable reason.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

If no one has suggested that yet then let me be the first. Lezcano destroyed the only two decent race horses in that races for no explicable reason.

Maybe Lezcano thought that, if Commentator got away with an easy lead (see 2008 Whitney), he'd have no chance to beat him, so he took the race to him. It didn't work out.

So to be "fair," we have to let speed horses have easy leads. Are these set-ups "fair" to closers?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Maybe Lezcano thought that, if Commentator got away with an easy lead (see 2008 Whitney), he'd have no chance to beat him, so he took the race to him. It didn't work out.

So to be "fair," we have to let speed horses have easy leads. Are these set-ups "fair" to closers?

There was already a horse in Tizway taking on Commentator. Lezcano had no reason to push them on Smooth Air. He could have had a perfect trip behind them but instead was so hellbent on destroying Commentator that he killed his own mount as well.

I can only speak for myself but a "fair" race to me is when everyone has a chance. The pace isn't too hot that it is virtually impossible for speed to hold on and isn't too slow that it is virtually impossible to come from off the pace.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

There was already a horse in Tizway taking on Commentator. Lezcano had no reason to push them on Smooth Air. He could have had a perfect trip behind them but instead was so hellbent on destroying Commentator that he killed his own mount as well.

I can only speak for myself but a "fair" race to me is when everyone has a chance. The pace isn't too hot that it is virtually impossible for speed to hold on and isn't too slow that it is virtually impossible to come from off the pace.

Tizway is a NW2X allowance horse that had never competed in a stakes race. Lezcano could not necessarily rely upon Tizway to "soften" Commentator up.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

There was already a horse in Tizway taking on Commentator. Lezcano had no reason to push them on Smooth Air. He could have had a perfect trip behind them but instead was so hellbent on destroying Commentator that he killed his own mount as well.

I can only speak for myself but a "fair" race to me is when everyone has a chance. The pace isn't too hot that it is virtually impossible for speed to hold on and isn't too slow that it is virtually impossible to come from off the pace.

a great horse like Rachel should be able to handle obstacles in her path, like the bolded. there are no excuses like "the pace was too fast". Well lay off the pace then!

for me her real excuses would be.. taken real wide by a jockey around a turn on purpose - Genuine Risk Preakness type stuff - being boxed in with no chance - Touch Gold Preakness & Kittens Joy BC Turf type stuff - horses bump the hell outta her - or her dumb jockey starts celebrating and falls off before the wire.

Those are her only excuses in my opinion.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I keep reading how no one could beat Rachel in a "square race"? What is that? If the older males challenge her and the early fractions in the Woodward are fast (say, 46.1, 1:10), would that be an "unfair" race?

By the way, those were the fractions from the Whitney, which were considerably faster than those set in the Preakness, and no one suggested that the 8YO Commentator had been unfairly treated.

That wouldnt be an excuse in my opinion. If she is rank and gets burned up in a speed duel and she loses... then she just loses no excuses.

I believe that she has the ability to sit off the pace and run her race. She's done that her past two races.. not far off the pace but she wasnt in the lead.

The example above is a square race IMO. She doesnt need everything to go in her favor to win, she's proven that too.