"Spaced" Races And "Fresh" Horses Are Killing The Sport

[Assttodixie]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Lawyer Ron's 2 year old campaing was not what it seems. It took him 6 races to break his maiden. When you're dropping back and making a little late run to come in 3rd in a maiden race, that's not going to take that much out of a horse.

I think that First Samurai's 2 year old campaign was just as demading as LR even though FS only ran 5 times total. FS was competing at the highest level and winning every race. He won his first 4 races in a row and then ran 3rd in the BC Juvenille. That was a tough campaign. Two different times he came back on only 3 weeks rest after really hard races. When a horse is running really hard and winning at the highest level, that's going to probably take a lot more out of a horse than running 5th in a maiden race.

Dixie says history is littered with horses that ran much more than four times in a row as two year olds and stuck around for seasons 3,4,5 and beyond. You keep saying that things have changed. But what has changed? Is there any emprical data out there can prove this change?

Originally Posted by Assttodixie

Dixie says history is littered with horses that ran much more than four times in a row as two year olds and stuck around for seasons 3,4,5 and beyond. You keep saying that things have changed. But what has changed? Is there any emprical data out there can prove this change?

There's one piece of data that can't be refuted ...

... not a single 2YO champion has repeated as 3YO champion in the past 27 years ... that's how great today's trainers and training methods are.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Assttodixie

Dixie says history is littered with horses that ran much more than four times in a row as two year olds and stuck around for seasons 3,4,5 and beyond. You keep saying that things have changed. But what has changed? Is there any emprical data out there can prove this change?

Yes, there's plenty of empirical evidence that things have changed. We don't have any great horses any more that run 15 races a year. You can't say that it's for a lack of trying. You can claim it's for a lack of trying with a horse like Bernardini. That would be wrong. If they tried to run Bernardini 15 times a year, they would ruin him. But at least you can say that his connection do not try to run him 15 times a year. That is true, his connection do not try to run him often. But there are plenty of good horses out there that are valuable like Bernardini and their trainers do try to run them often. These horses rarely do well. These horses rarely even make into big races. I doubt you will see any horses in the BC races that have run 13 times this year.

If I was handicapping a race tomorrow and I saw a horse that had already run 12 times this year, this would be the first horse I would throw out unless the race was totally empty of talent. If that was the case, then I wouldn't bet the race. There is almost no way that I would bet a horse that has alreay run 12 times this year.