Weekend Beyers..

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He leaves the synthetic and moves to the real dirt .. and his figures explode initially but it looks like he might have broke down.

Just more fuel for Jerry Brown. Hopefully Carless Jewel doesn't go all I Want Revenge on us.

Seems like there could be lots of horses like this wasting away on rubber.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Seems like there could be lots of horses like this wasting away on rubber.

Uh Huh

Think of all the SLOW horses on rubber that turn out to be FAST on dirt.

This alone should be enough to justify all those days when it rains and the handicapper is subjected to sloppy tracks and off the turfers. Of course, anyone accustomed to playing poly just, in most cases, handicaps as if nothing has changed on days like this. That's handicapping free and easy.

Lets consider the options:

1) we get FAST figures and we spend a lot of extra time handicapping races that aren't run on their intended surface AND, more importantly, we preserve that long held DIRT IS SUPERIOR tradition in horse racing. we also get a ton of freebies with all the track biases

2) we IGNORE figures and get to bet on what we handicap and enjoy FAIR racing

I've opted for 2 as I'm not committed to a FIGURE PARADIGM and a proponent of doing as little work as possible and playing FAIR whenever possible

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Think of all the SLOW horses on rubber that turn out to be FAST on dirt.

Yeah, very fast for a race ... or sometimes two ... before they typically fall off the face of the planet.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

2) we IGNORE figures and get to bet on what we handicap and enjoy FAIR racing

I'm still showing a flat bet profit with my top selection at PID for the 2nd year in a row.

I can promise you that making figures is more important there than at any track I've ever seen before ... and the racing is often anything but "fair"

There have been no-brainer severe dead rails in 2008 that have lasted each racing day for several weeks. There have been no-brainer gold rails at this meet - that have lasted for as many as 9 or 10 racing days at a time.

There have been EXTREME speed biases that have occured for several day stretches over each of the three meetings.

I've got trip notes for every single day of Saratoga this meet. I don't have a single day - not one - where either a pro speed or anti speed bias occured.

I only have a path bias for one day .. on Aug 22nd I have a very lukewarm "rail didn't seem like the best place to be all day"

To bet a track like PID while ignoring figures and bias would be outright suicide. Those are by far and away the two dominant factors for that track imo.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I've got trip notes for every single day of Saratoga this meet. I don't have a single day - not one - where either a pro speed or anti speed bias occured.

I don't play SAR seriously, so I don't keep any notes but I'm certain there was a speed/inside bias for a couple of days on the turf, sprinting, early in the meet.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I don't play SAR seriously, so I don't keep any notes but I'm certain there was a speed/inside bias for a couple of days on the turf, sprinting, early in the meet.

As referenced by ME in another thread.....you again show your handicapping superiority to the rest of us....thank you Fat Man...thank you!

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by JDank34

As referenced by ME in another thread.....you again show your handicapping superiority to the rest of us....thank you Fat Man...thank you!

I need a translation.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I don't play SAR seriously, so I don't keep any notes but I'm certain there was a speed/inside bias for a couple of days on the turf, sprinting, early in the meet.

Yeah dude, every Tuesday you could not win if you were off the rail. The rest of the week the rail got worse until the next Tuesday.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I don't play SAR seriously, so I don't keep any notes but I'm certain there was a speed/inside bias for a couple of days on the turf, sprinting, early in the meet.

You playing too many cutbacks in the turf sprints that couldn't get there?

I didn't notice a bias of any type on the grass, on opening week there were two turf sprints on Thursday, both were won off the pace. On Sunday there was a claimer that was won off the pace. Week 2 may have been different.

I thought the rail sucked while the track was re-drying out during the first half of Sunday and that contributed to Ea not being able to get by that slowpoke Pitched Perfectly. Of course, Heavenly Landing won up the inside in the 7th but by that point the sun had peeked out a bit and it was done drying for the most part.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Here's what a quick check of the 1st part of the meet reveals. I hadn't looked at this data earlier and my initial comment related to 8/05, where, visually, it appears that there's a speed bias.

7/29 --- no TS
7/30 --- 2 TS --- no wire jobs
7/31 -- no turf

8/01 -- no TS
8/02 -- 1 TS -- no wire
8/03 -- no TS

8/05 --- 2 TS -- 2 wire jobs
8/06 -- 2 TS --- 1 wire job
8/07 -- 1 TS -- no wire job
8/08 -- 2 TS -- no wire job
8/09 -- 2 TS -- 2 wire jobs
8/10 -- 1 TS -- 1 wire job


So, out of 13 turf sprints over 8 days, there were 6 wire jobs. 2 each (out of 2 races) on 8/05 and 8/09; and the other 2 on the subsequent day.

While the number of wire jobs in relation to total turf sprints doesn't appear telling, I think the fact that they're clustered (3 out of 4; and 3 out of 3) does.

Anyone willing to take this further is welcome to.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You playing too many cutbacks in the turf sprints that couldn't get there?

I didn't notice a bias of any type on the grass, on opening week there were two turf sprints on Thursday, both were won off the pace. On Sunday there was a claimer that was won off the pace. Week 2 may have been different.



NT

The turf sprints up there are always funky. I can pick out when something is happening by how horses moving on the turn seem be get caught in a riptide when they hit the stretch. Notice Citifest, for example, who came back to win after having no shot in the biased events of 8/05.

Yeah, my cutbacks aren't getting there the same way that Rail Trip is a MILER and Straight Story is not only going to beat Battle of Hastings with a better trip but he's also, arguably the best 3 year old turfer in the country.