"Spaced" Races And "Fresh" Horses Are Killing The Sport

[Phalaris1913]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

If you took out the stats for the upper level Stakes horses would you find that average starts are declining as quickly?

Unfortunately, the lack of readily available data in electronic form prevents an easy answer to that. I'm working on a project which will eventually have race records for stakes winners across a lengthy span of time (which could then be compared to contemporary breed norms), but for practical reasons, I had to rearrange the order in which I am doing certain tasks so I won't be working on that aspect for a long time, probably years.

Sticking to relatively current data, I can run average start-per-season figures for crops back to the early 1990s. During this recent span, it appears that the horses who earned significantly more than average for a year (generally indicative of better stakes-caliber form) show a faster decline in average starts per season, but started at a much higher average compared to lesser-earning runners. I would be curious to see what would happen if I ran comparable numbers for more distant times, as the current trend toward fewer starts per season was well-established by the early 1990s.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Phalaris1913

Unfortunately, the lack of readily available data in electronic form prevents an easy answer to that. I'm working on a project which will eventually have race records for stakes winners across a lengthy span of time (which could then be compared to contemporary breed norms), but for practical reasons, I had to rearrange the order in which I am doing certain tasks so I won't be working on that aspect for a long time, probably years.

Sticking to relatively current data, I can run average start-per-season figures for crops back to the early 1990s. During this recent span, it appears that the horses who earned significantly more than average for a year (generally indicative of better stakes-caliber form) show a faster decline in average starts per season, but started at a much higher average compared to lesser-earning runners. I would be curious to see what would happen if I ran comparable numbers for more distant times, as the current trend toward fewer starts per season was well-established by the early 1990s.

Thank you for posting all of your finds here.

[somerfrost]

I maintain that the biggest problem in racing today remains the insane breeding practices...we breed almost exclusively to unsound lines in order to produce precocious two year olds that can run a hole in the wind but fall apart before the summer of their three year old campaigns. There are exceptions always but look at all the most popular lines and you'll find horses with shortened careers (long before the breeding money mandated early retirements) lacking many "S" or "P" CDR's in their 4-5 generational pedigrees. That's why I've been so outspoken in supporting the great sire Broad Brush with his linage back to Domino.
Ther have been studies that have provided pro and con data regarding two year old racing, I prefer that two year old's not race or be seriously trained to race until the fall of their season but that won't happen. It might be a good thing to move everything back a year and run the classics for four year olds but again, unless breeding practices change, there might not be any horses left to compete...and due to greed and Arab spending sprees, that won't happen either. I don't think there is evidence that two year old racing harms horses per se...Count Fleet raced 16 times at two and still won the Triple Crown (of course he was injured in the Belmont and never raced again...but still had 21 races).

[post2post]

that and they have grade 1 stakes races with a 1 to 5 shot.....and the pick 3 pays 9 bucks...

they need to cancel these races if they are not getting filled properly with the right talent level....and force these owners and trainers to earn the big checks and Graded $$$...