When Horses That Can't Win.....Do

[brianwspencer]

I know you're not just complaining and whining so I'm not trying to go after you on it, but not everyone thought the Sword Dancer was an impossible result. My colleague Joe Kristufek was all over it - http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/hor...ory?id=4400403

Yes, I'm trying to poke holes in the likely favorites because I like a long shot in TELLING. He definitely needs to run the race of his life to win this, but he might just be ready to do just that. He won four races last year, but hasn't scored in 15 months, and today's competition is much tougher than what he's been facing. That being said, his recent fifth place run in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap was much better than it looks on paper. He showed a different dimension in rallying from far off the pace, and finished best of all, but he was simply left with too much to do. Trainer Steve Hobby isn't one to ship half way across the country for no reason, so one could gather that he's thrilled with the way this 5-year-old has been training. Guessing we'll get at least 30-1.

Visually, his last run was good (and much better than it looked on paper, and Just As Well made sure the race came back pretty well too, closing on Gio Ponti for 2nd last weekend in the million), and he's right about Hobby not messing around.

I'm not shilling or saying that the horse made the most sense by any stretch...but your 30-1 horse that "can't win" is someone else's play of week, that's the whole reason parimutuel wagering works.