Lord Kipling Odds Drop 2 Minutes In

Bobby Fischer · #1 08-13-2009, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

I don't have time to give a thorough explanation, but as has been brought up here and on air several times, the video packages that display odds on screen are directly involved in the appearences of odds increases or decreases.

1.) Odds that the video displays start with the numbers that are an estimated 93% of the pool 30-45 seconds before the start of the race.

2.) There is another tabulation before the gates open which will be the second set of reflected odds displayed on screen and are an estimated 97% of the pool.

3.) The final odds are reflected after the 'flush' 10 seconds into a race.

The changes on screen reflect these snapshots of the odds ONLY IF THERE HAS BEEN A CHANGE IN THE RUNNING ORDER OF THE HORSES. So there is frequently a lag in the odds being reflected.

It's funny how no one ever notes when there are increases in odds on screen. Of course it happens in completely equal proportion to decreases... Happened to bring one up on air a few weeks ago in fact...

when people get excited over a pool inefficiency with one of the chalks, and then while of course thousands of other dollars also bet it from home on their computers in the final available seconds, it has become popular to cry foul. These cases probably are 98% situations where everybody with a pc and an ADW account bet the horse with zero minutes to post because he was a "steal".

However past posting probably does occur sometimes, as does past canceling/ odds manipulation. I've video captured the pool money a few times when horses that don't figure have a couple thousand dollars "too much" in certain pools, early in the betting, to see if I spot a cancel or odds manipulation but I haven't caught it yet.

Maybe the odds aren't a good idea to show on the screen anymore?
Things should be done to alleviate both the perception and the real threat of it happening. High speed internet isn't THAT expensive, we are just sending data around...

cmorioles · #2 08-13-2009, 10:01 AM

Of course the tracks always have an explanation for everything. I don't believe them. There have been too many cases recently of past posting that we know about. I imagine those we don't know about are tenfold.

Tenfold is about the amount I've decreased my betting this year. The game just sucks right now for the most part. It is amazing how outdated the whole tote system is, and nobody seems to care.

Kasept · #3 08-13-2009, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Maybe the odds aren't a good idea to show on the screen anymore?

Things should be done to alleviate both the perception and the real threat of it happening. High speed internet isn't THAT expensive, we are just sending data around...

I was going to say it but figured that would be met with derision.

randallscott35 · #4 08-13-2009, 10:28 AM

Steve,

All I can say is, I chose a race that was 2 miles long on purpose. If ever there was a time in shouldn't have happened, that was it...I would have no problem with them closing betting when they start loading.

Kasept · #5 08-13-2009, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Steve,

All I can say is, I chose a race that was 2 miles long on purpose. If ever there was a time in shouldn't have happened, that was it...I would have no problem with them closing betting when they start loading.

Rand..

It might not matter until the video display package and tote system are updated/automated/integrated more thoroughly. Now, there is STILL going to be a slight lag from the final flushes of the system and how they appear on screen. If horses stay in that same order ALL THE WAY around, the prices could be completely different than what was shown THE ENTIRE RACE.

randallscott35 · #6 08-13-2009, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Rand..

It might not matter until the video display package and tote system are updated/automated/integrated more thoroughly. Now, there is STILL going to be a slight lag from the final flushes of the system and how they appear on screen. If horses stay in that same order ALL THE WAY around, the prices could be completely different than what was shown THE ENTIRE RACE.

I was careful to note that I did not think it was a conspiracy in my intial post, but after scandals in racing, in particular the BC Cup of '01 and various Pick 4s of that year, racing needs to do everything possible to keep even the perception of chicanery from happening.

stonegossard · #7 08-13-2009, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

CJ,

I know this topic is VERY central to your concerns for the game, and am glad you made the suggestion... I was going to say it but figured that would be met with derision.

Wait until CJ sees you mistook him for Bobby Fischer.

I hope you have a good lawyer Steve.

Kasept · #8 08-13-2009, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stonegossard

Wait until CJ sees you mistook him for Bobby Fischer.

I hope you have a good lawyer Steve.

OMG... I did in fact mistake the author. In this case, an outrageously egregious error.

stonegossard · #9 08-13-2009, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

OMG... I did in fact mistake the author. In this case, an outrageously egregious error.

Hopefully CJ recovers from such a vicious attack.........

kgar311 · #10 08-13-2009, 02:26 PM

Second race at Saratoga, the exacta look a little suspect to me. Second longest shot on the board wins, 3rd longest come second. Top 3 favs off the board $20 horse on top and the exacta pays $62

SniperSB23 · #11 08-13-2009, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

Second race at Saratoga, the exacta look a little suspect to me. Second longest shot on the board wins, 3rd longest come second. Top 3 favs off the board $20 horse on top and the exacta pays $62

Entries always get bet hard in the exacta pool, especially when there are only 6 betting interests in the field.

Bobby Fischer · #12 08-13-2009, 02:51 PM

cmorioles · #13 08-13-2009, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

I was going to say it but figured that would be met with derision.

Of course it would be met with derision...since when is hiding something you don't want to fix a good idea? It might work with people that don't know about the problem, but in this case that isn't going to happen.

kgar311 · #14 08-13-2009, 04:15 PM

2nd race 9-1 4-1 ex $62 six betting interests

4th race 9-1 7-1 ex $192 seven betting interests

hmmmmmmmmmm

Ronnie · #15 08-13-2009, 04:23 PM

I think the whole day was questionable. I think it was track worker bonus day.

kgar311 · #16 08-13-2009, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronnie

I think the whole day was questionable. I think it was track worker bonus day.

I think they kept several machines open at the track today.

Bobby Fischer · #17 08-13-2009, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgar311

2nd race 9-1 4-1 ex $62 six betting interests

4th race 9-1 7-1 ex $192 seven betting interests

hmmmmmmmmmm

they are cheating! Either that or they're using separate pools again for win and exacta prices...