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  #1  
Old 08-13-2009, 05:52 AM
Holland Hacker's Avatar
Holland Hacker Holland Hacker is offline
Narragansett Park
 
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Location: Western New Jersey
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Steve,

Thanks once again for all of your hard work. I have a silly question for you regarding your picks. Why is it that you chage the order of your picks? By that I mean in some races you list you ML - BV - NB - EU / SA and in others you list your BV - ML - NB - EU / SA.

Also is there a difference between your classification of Exotics Use and Super Add?

Hoefully I'll see you later today. Heading up to Saratoga for the weekend!

Bill
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  #2  
Old 08-13-2009, 06:12 AM
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Kasept Kasept is online now
Steve Byk
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holland Hacker
Steve,

Thanks once again for all of your hard work. I have a silly question for you regarding your picks. Why is it that you chage the order of your picks? By that I mean in some races you list you ML - BV - NB - EU / SA and in others you list your BV - ML - NB - EU / SA.

Also is there a difference between your classification of Exotics Use and Super Add?

Hoefully I'll see you later today. Heading up to Saratoga for the weekend!

Bill
The order of selection amounts to the 1-2-3-4 preference... A 12-1 'Best Value' isn't the most likely winner in the truest sense. I'm suggesting in those cases that at the likely tote, a Best Value type is a better bet than the lower priced favorite(s).

Conversely, there are times were the top 2 ML favorites or first and third choices, etc., are simply better horses than the best value player available... Hence, a Most Likely, Next Best, Best Value order...

The moniker of Exotics or Super (4th horse) is strictly determined by whether or not a Super is available in the race. A 10 horse field with entries where a Super isn't available frequently demands a Most Likely and/or Best Value be played with at least 2-3 others for exactas/tris/supers.

See you over there!
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  #3  
Old 08-13-2009, 07:50 AM
andrasi andrasi is offline
Les Bois
 
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Thanks for the#2 in nightcap Steve, bet a few on the nose. Thru arms up in disgust after my mess up in pic4 sequence. Salvaged day because of it. jer
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  #4  
Old 08-13-2009, 08:27 AM
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lemoncrush lemoncrush is offline
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Default Saratoga Late PK 4

Making the late PK 4 my only mid-week play this week. Been looking over the PPs the past few days. I may end up using Ticketmaker on DRF to break this ticket down to smaller tickets, as it's a pretty competitive 4 races.

Pre-scratches Selections

Race 7 Shadwell firster Hatheer looks ready to face maiden group, most which look to want much more ground than 5-1/2 F. Main rival could be More than Ready filly Ready to Party, as trainer excells at turf sprints.
8 - Hatheer (3-1)
9 - Crimson Glory (7-2) SCR
2 - Ready to Party (8-1)
3 - Smart Seattle (10-1)

Race 8 Frankel filly has distinct class edge on these, but 6F may be too short against this group. Alan Garcia has been aboard all 3 career wins for Tar Heel Mom, and returns to ride her today
6 - Turn Away (2-1)
2 - Choragus (5-2)
5 - Tar Heel Mom (7-2)

Race 9 Tagg filly Wild Awake should be able to handle this group after 4 straight 2nd place finishes.
4 - Wild Awake (5-2)
8 - Sezzana (4-1)
7 - Mother Russia (3-1)
2 - E's Mia (10-1)

Race 10 Lots of question marks, lots of pace, and a very vulernable M/L favorite in Hangingonaprayer. Lots to like on Catty Madeline and J. Leparoux. World Gone Wrong could offer great value with a hot rider jumping on.
9 - Catty Madeline (5-1) Best bet
4 - World Gone Wrong (6-1)
2 - Hanging on a Prayer (3-1)
7 - My Anna Rose (8-1)
12 - Linsalata (7-2)

Pick 4 (post scratches)
7 - 2,8
8 - 5,6
9 - 4,7,8
10 - 2,4,6,9

$48 for $1

Last edited by lemoncrush : 08-13-2009 at 01:02 PM.
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  #5  
Old 08-13-2009, 09:53 AM
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randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
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I remember maybe in 99 or 2000 or something, one of the handicapping shows up there said all they do in the jump races in box the 3 longest shots in the exacta and they hit it a bunch of times. Was funny but I still think about that when watching these races.
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  #6  
Old 08-13-2009, 12:43 PM
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Arletta Arletta is offline
Jerome Park
 
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Saw Cableknit just scratched at the gate (1/2 sis to Speightstown) 1.7 million $$ yearling.

I believe she flipped.. hope she is alright and runs back soon.
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  #7  
Old 08-13-2009, 04:40 PM
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Sightseek Sightseek is offline
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Linda Rice is unstoppable!
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  #8  
Old 08-13-2009, 08:00 PM
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lemoncrush lemoncrush is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lemoncrush
Making the late PK 4 my only mid-week play this week. Been looking over the PPs the past few days. I may end up using Ticketmaker on DRF to break this ticket down to smaller tickets, as it's a pretty competitive 4 races.

Pre-scratches Selections

Race 7 Shadwell firster Hatheer looks ready to face maiden group, most which look to want much more ground than 5-1/2 F. Main rival could be More than Ready filly Ready to Party, as trainer excells at turf sprints.
8 - Hatheer (3-1)
9 - Crimson Glory (7-2) SCR
2 - Ready to Party (8-1)
3 - Smart Seattle (10-1)

Race 8 Frankel filly has distinct class edge on these, but 6F may be too short against this group. Alan Garcia has been aboard all 3 career wins for Tar Heel Mom, and returns to ride her today
6 - Turn Away (2-1)
2 - Choragus (5-2)
5 - Tar Heel Mom (7-2)

Race 9 Tagg filly Wild Awake should be able to handle this group after 4 straight 2nd place finishes.
4 - Wild Awake (5-2)
8 - Sezzana (4-1)
7 - Mother Russia (3-1)
2 - E's Mia (10-1)

Race 10 Lots of question marks, lots of pace, and a very vulernable M/L favorite in Hangingonaprayer. Lots to like on Catty Madeline and J. Leparoux. World Gone Wrong could offer great value with a hot rider jumping on.
9 - Catty Madeline (5-1) Best bet
4 - World Gone Wrong (6-1)
2 - Hanging on a Prayer (3-1)
7 - My Anna Rose (8-1)
12 - Linsalata (7-2)

Pick 4 (post scratches)
7 - 2,8
8 - 5,6
9 - 4,7,8
10 - 2,4,6,9

$48 for $1
Once the Wesly Ward Ghostzapper filly scratched from the 7th, I obviously should have moved my 4th selection (Smart Seattle) onto the ticket. Being too gun shy with not playing enough Saragota so far, cost me the $800+ pick 4 today.
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  #9  
Old 08-14-2009, 01:52 AM
Unstable Unstable is offline
Ellis Park
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lemoncrush
Once the Wesly Ward Ghostzapper filly scratched from the 7th, I obviously should have moved my 4th selection (Smart Seattle) onto the ticket. Being too gun shy with not playing enough Saragota so far, cost me the $800+ pick 4 today.
Lost in the discussion of the reason why Linda Rice is doing so well at Saratoga is your near miss of the Pick 4. I enjoyed comparing your picks to my own and reading your explanations. I hope you continue to post your picks. I incorporated your picks on my own tickets and likewise missed out on the $805 payoff because I got "cute" by playing multiple tickets rather than just one. Oh well, there's always tomorrow (or next time)....
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