Beyer Questions???????

The Indomitable DrugS · #1 08-06-2009, 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ogygian

Thanks Doug....still need to answer my question though...Are we going to see another 120 Beyer? What does a horse have to do to get that high of a mark?
You said a pair of dead on the board maiden claimers went 1:09 and change...Is it possible those maiden claimers nowadays are a bit faster then the maiden claimers 20 years ago?
Did Road need to run a 1:12 then?

Yes - you will obviously see another 120

In order to get that high of a mark .. a horse will probably have to be extremely good, probably have to have a favorable trip, and certainly have to run extremely fast in relation to the speed of the racetrack.

Yes it's possible that maiden claimers now a days are faster than 20 years ago. If you look at the Thoro-Graph figures .. claimers now a days are faster than Alysheba. That's why I prefer to use Beyer figures when comparing horses from different generations. They are very solid and consistant over the last 20 years in that regard IMO.

If Quality Road would have run a 120 ... that means Comeback would have had to run an 80 Beyer .. for running 4th in a 20K maiden claimer .. despite having been "pinched back at break. Checked far turn."

Cannon Shell was the former trainer of Comeback .. ask him if he thinks he could run an 80 Beyer on dirt. He ran a 53 and 45 in his two dirt races for him.

CSC · #2 08-06-2009, 09:26 PM

I don't have stacks of stats at my disposal as some here, but I always take Saratoga dirt beyers with abit of salt, it seems to me there have been some abnormally high beyers earned here that cause me to atleast be abit skeptical, I will cite one, sprinter Left Bank and his 121 in the Whitney, I know Commentator has earned close to 120, I'm sure I will be reminded of many more, coincidence or not it seems like some of the higher profile performances are given big numbers.

The Indomitable DrugS · #3 08-06-2009, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I don't have stacks of stats at my disposal as some here, but I always take Saratoga dirt beyers with abit of salt, it seems to me there have been some abnormally high beyers earned here that cause me to atleast be abit skeptical, I will cite one, sprinter Left Bank and his 121 in the Whitney, I know Commentator has earned close to 120, I'm sure I will be reminded of many more, coincidence or not it seems like some of the higher profile performances are given big numbers.

Left Bank's 121 Beyer was fairly cut and dry.

He ran a 121 in his prior start.

2nd place Street Cry ran a 119 in his prior start.

3rd place Lido Palace ran a 113 last time out

He ran 9 furlongs in a track record equaling 1:47 flat.

The only other 9 furlong dirt race of the day was won by Connie's Magic in 1:51.59

Connie's Magic, in victory, ran a mere 44 points less than the time for Left Bank's win.

Connie's Magic returned the following Wednesday to win by 5 lengths and pay $6.70 going nine furlongs. He did so despite breaking from the 11 hole and going 5 wide on both turns. His Beyer was a few points higher than what he got when he won the day he went 4.59 seconds slower than Left Bank for the distance.

CSC · #4 08-06-2009, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Left Bank's 121 Beyer was fairly cut and dry.

He ran a 121 in his prior start.

2nd place Street Cry ran a 119 in his prior start.

3rd place Lido Palace ran a 113 last time out

He ran 9 furlongs in a track record equaling 1:47 flat.

The only other 9 furlong dirt race of the day was won by Connie's Magic in 1:51.59

Connie's Magic, in victory, ran a mere 44 points less than the time for Left Bank's win.

Connie's Magic returned the following Wednesday to win by 5 lengths and pay $6.70 going nine furlongs. He did so despite breaking from the 11 hole and going 5 wide on both turns. His Beyer was a few points higher than what he got when he won the day he went 4.59 seconds slower than Left Bank for the distance.

Did Macho Uno beyer 116 for 4th? If so that seemed somewhat high to me, regardless the Street Cry in the Whitney didn't resemble the one that won the Stephen Foster. That 119 was far more impressive than his second place to LB. It just seems to me the number was high, especially for a stretching out sprinter.

The Indomitable DrugS · #5 08-06-2009, 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Did Macho Uno beyer 116 for 4th? If so that seemed somewhat high to me, regardless the Street Cry in the Whitney didn't resemble the one that won the Stephen Foster. That 119 was far more impressive than his second place to LB. It just seems to me the number was high, especially for a stretching out sprinter.

Macho Uno showed no speed, was never involved, and steadily backed up against a weak field at 3/5 odds in his next start - which was at Arlington. He was toast.

He had run 5 straight Beyers between 110 and 116 coming into that race.

When a horse runs light years below their steady and consistant form ... it's typically a sign that something is wrong, not a sign that they're last race was overrated.

Sometimes horses will recover, sometimes they won't.

Skip Away ran 3 straight Beyers between 112 and 115 - and in his next start was 3rd beaten 7 lengths at 3/5 odds with a 92 Beyer. Isitingood and Spirtbound drilled him at Lone Star Park.

Even though that clearly wasn't the real Skip Away .. he bounced back to his old self... in fact better than his old self .. as if something holding him back a little was found and corrected.

Take a horse like Discreet Cat, who ran a series of 116 Beyer races as a 3yo. He goes to Dubai, gets sick, and is scratched from his prep.

In the World Cup, he shows no speed, breaks last, and finishes last by 23 behind some Turkey and Suadi Arabaian horses. People who don't understand racing think a performance like that is somehow a black mark against his previous races.

In his case, he was toast. They never could get him to do more than run like a high priced claimer after that.

CSC · #6 08-07-2009, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Macho Uno showed no speed, was never involved, and steadily backed up against a weak field at 3/5 odds in his next start - which was at Arlington. He was toast.

He had run 5 straight Beyers between 110 and 116 coming into that race.

When a horse runs light years below their steady and consistant form ... it's typically a sign that something is wrong, not a sign that they're last race was overrated.

I always thought Macho Uno was overrated, of the 3 that came out of that BC Juvenile I thought Street Cry was the best horse, his problem was he had problems staying healthy. In the breeding shed he has been the most prolific and we certainly saw glimpes of just how talented he was in the DWC and The Foster. When it comes to Point Given there are always 2 differing views, the most glaring weakness on his record in my mind is he never faced any real competition, he was retired at the time to the ol suspensory injury or something like that, sounded a little dubious to me at the time.

chucklestheclown · #7 08-06-2009, 11:12 PM

NEVER look at PPs

VOL JACK · #8 08-06-2009, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yes - you will obviously see another 120

In order to get that high of a mark .. a horse will probably have to be extremely good, probably have to have a favorable trip, and certainly have to run extremely fast in relation to the speed of the racetrack.

Yes it's possible that maiden claimers now a days are faster than 20 years ago. If you look at the Thoro-Graph figures .. claimers now a days are faster than Alysheba. That's why I prefer to use Beyer figures when comparing horses from different generations. They are very solid and consistant over the last 20 years in that regard IMO.

If Quality Road would have run a 120 ... that means Comeback would have had to run an 80 Beyer .. for running 4th in a 20K maiden claimer .. despite having been "pinched back at break. Checked far turn."

Cannon Shell was the former trainer of Comeback .. ask him if he thinks he could run an 80 Beyer on dirt. He ran a 53 and 45 in his two dirt races for him.

But, according to most of the board, he is now with the Magical Move-up Mike Maker.

The Indomitable DrugS · #9 08-06-2009, 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

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But, according to most of the board, he is now with the Magical Move-up Mike Maker.

Your friend Maker did move him up. He tends to do that.

parsixfarms · #10 08-07-2009, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If you look at the Thoro-Graph figures .. claimers now a days are faster than Alysheba.

Isn't this why it's hard to take seriously some of these figure-makers' recent hyperbolic claims like Big Brown ran the "fastest" Derby ever?

The Indomitable DrugS · #11 08-07-2009, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Isn't this why it's hard to take seriously some of these figure-makers' recent hyperbolic claims like Big Brown ran the "fastest" Derby ever?

To a degree yes. They have every type of horse getting A LOT faster.

Here is what a Thoro-Graph Kentucky Derby involving every winner since 1986 would look like.

Winner: Big Brown (2008) -4.75 (1st by 5 lengths)

2nd: Barbaro (2006) -2.25 (2nd beaten 5 lengths)

3rd: Street Sense (2007) -2.00 (3rd beaten 5.5 lengths)

4th: Smarty Jones (2004) -1.75 (4th beaten 6 lengths)

5th: Mine That Bird (2009) -0.75 (beaten 8 lengths)

5th: Monarchos (2001) -0.75 (beaten 8 lengths)

7th: War Emblem (2002) -0.50 (beaten 8.5 lengths)

8th: Giacomo (2005) 0.50 (beaten 10.5 lengths)

9th: Funny Cide (2003) 1.50 (beaten 12.5 lengths)

10th: Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) 2.75 (beaten 15 lengths)

10th: Silver Charm 2.75 (beaten 15 lengths)

12th: Thunder Gulch 3.50 (beaten 16.5 lengths)

12th: Charismatic 3.50 (beaten 16.5 lengths)

14th: Real Quiet 3.75 (beaten 17 lengths)

15th: Go For Gin 4.00 (beaten 17.5 lengths)

15th: Unbridled 4.00 (beaten 17.5 lengths)

17th: Grindstone 5.00 (beaten 19.5 lengths)

18th: Lil E Tee 5.50 (beaten 20.5 lengths)

18th Sea Hero 5.50 (beaten 20.5 lengths)

20th: Strike The Gold 6.00 (beaten 21.5 lengths)

20th: Alysheba 6.00 (beaten 21.5 lengths)

22nd: Sunday Silence 6.25 (beaten 22 lengths)

23rd: Winning Colors 6.50 (beaten 22.5 lengths

24th: Ferdinand 7.00 (beaten 23.5 lengths)

Basically, if you believe TG, horses have become 20 lengths faster at about all class levels since the days of Alysheba .... the days when Jack Van Berg was king of racing. Now, Jack Van Berg is a hysterically incompetent bum who knows absolutely nothing about training horses ... and consistantly wins at 3% year in and year out.

But yeah, if you want to believe Big Brown is the fastest Derby winner ever.... you also have to believe that Recapture The Glory ran about 10 lengths better while getting pummled - than great horses like Sunday Silence, Alysheba, and Ferdinand did in victory.

parsixfarms · #12 08-07-2009, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

To a degree yes. They have every type of horse getting A LOT faster.

It begs the question "why"?

And it's the same with the Ragozin sheets. A Hall of Fame horse like Holy Bull's top lifetime Ragozin figure was a 2.5 (ironically, not his Met Mile, Travers or Woodward, but the Olympic Handicap as a 4YO). I think three horses in Monday's Amsterdam had figures as low (Quality Road, Everyday Heroes and Capt. Candyman Can), two of whom could never be mentioned in the same conversation as the Bull.