Lukas Handicapping Angle

Dunbar · #1 06-08-2006, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

As I have stated before, his percentages of breakdowns is so high that that there are insurance companies that will not insure his horses. I don't have the numbers but the insurance companies have them. In addition, he has more horses get eased and pulled up than anyone. The numbers are stagerring. I don't remember what the exact figure was but his number of horses that ease is around 3x or 4x times higher than the average trainer. The numbers confirm what everyone in the business already knows.

Again, this could be a combination of selective memory and the number of horses he trains. I don't know how many he is training now, but he used to have an empire. Of course he was going to have 3x to 4x the number of eases as an "average trainer". I know you are asserting that his percentage is also much higher, but, well, I'd like to see figs that support that assertion.

As far as the insurance companies, go...this sounds like 2nd or 3rd hand info. Do we know if it is the big insurance companies that won't insure him?

Again, I am not doubting your observations that Lukas will run horses that shouldn't be running. But I'd need more than anecdotal evidence before I'd condemn him for actually breaking down a higher percentage of horses than his peers.

--Dunbar

Rupert Pupkin · #2 06-08-2006, 01:11 PM

Dunbar, I'm not sure I understand your question regarding his percentage of horses that ease. The information is straight forward. Not only is it easy to see from observation, but the numbers show it to be true. How often do you see a Mandella, Pletcher, Frankel, Clement, or Ellis horse ease? It is extremely rare. You see Lukas horses easing all the time. There is no innocent explanation for it. He constantly runs horses that are so lame that they don't even finish the race. By the way, I believe that the figures included any horse that got beat by over 30 lengths.
With regard to the insurance companies, I know for sure that one of the biggest companies will not insure his horses.
I am really baffled at some of the questions that you guys come up with. You know that I love analogies so I will give you another one. We see the same guy stumble out of a bar every night. It is obvious that he is an alcholic. Not only do we see him stumble out of the bar every night but we know that he has over 10 DUI arrests. You would be asking me "How can we be sure he is an alcoholic? Are you sure that the average person doesn't have 10 DUIs? How do you know that the police don't just have it in for this guy? are you sure that people are exaggerating about this guy? I'm sure that everybody has gotten drunk before."
This is what your questions and comments sound like. I don't know what you guys ae looking for. Everything I'm telling you is true. Everyone in the business that has ever chimed into these debates has said the same thing. All the evidence supports what I'm telling you. I don't know what else there is to say. If you don't want to believe it then don't believe it.

videogirl10 · #3 06-08-2006, 01:23 PM

i have a question....if lukas's horses aren't being insured b/c of his problems, then why do owners still go to him? wouldn't they want their high priced horses insured? and if he isn't doing a good job, then why do owners send their horses to him?

1st_Saturday_in_May · #4 06-08-2006, 01:44 PM

D.W. Lukas 2006 statistics

215 starters - 15 win - 32 place - 33 show - $1,117,622

6.97% winners (lowest among top 100 trainers in nation per Equibase)
37.2% in the money (96th among top 100 trainers in nation per Equibase)

Hate to say it, but if this is the best he can do with clients like Beverly Lewis and Overbrook maybe it is time for him to hang it up. Yes, he did get Folklore a win in the BCJF, but for me two horses in the past four Triple Crowns really show me that this guy is just reaching. Both Going Wild and Ten Cents a Shine were TROUNCED in the final KD preps with no excuses yet he continued on to the Derby and when the were crushed there, he went to the Preakness. Why, who knows? I personally will not be betting this guy at all anymore...

Rootdog1 · #5 06-08-2006, 01:44 PM

I can back up the insurance statement. His DNF rates are the highest of any top/middle tier trainer, and most owners that use him pay a premium for insurance. Why he still gets horses is a great question......he still sells the dream and has enough history/reputation for those believers out there.

Rupert Pupkin · #6 06-08-2006, 01:54 PM

RootDog, If there is any way you could get those exact figures, it would be great if you could post them. As I said, I don't know the exact figure but I know that his percenatge of horses that ease was around 3x or 4x higher than average.
I'm sure that some people would like to know the exact figures.

Unbridled · #7 06-08-2006, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monipenny

You have stated your case tirelessly about Lukas running lame horses and having horses eased far more times then his elite company, but do you really think he does what he pleases with these horses without consulting his big time owners. I don't think so? This game is all about results and winning and if you can not identify with that then I digress. Rup- if you like analogies so much then here is one for you- Joe Paterno arguably one of the greatest college coaches and classy guys is basically told win or else in 2004; well program had two great back to back years. His team last year flew under the radar the whole season until the year end Bowl games. Now with Lukas- if someone had to light a fire under his asss to get him to start producing don't you really think he would do this under most circumstances. Yes by injecting steroids into horses and yes by injecting their knees and running them through the lameness they can not feel, but will eventually break down and go lame. The driving force in this game is all about results- Why then would Coolmore give this 13 million Forestry filly too Pletcher? It's results plain and simple. Now if they hit the jackpot with this filly the residual value of Forestry goes through the roof. Who owns Forestry? You guessed it Coolmore.

Coolmore paid 16 million for a Forestry colt, not a filly. The Jones' raced Forestry and own him. He stands at Taylor Made.

Rupert Pupkin · #8 06-08-2006, 02:08 PM

Monipenny, Lukas' biggest ownners the last few years have been and Bob and Beverly Lewis. You could not have better ownes than that. The Lewises are not demanding. They don't put pressure on Lukas. They let him do whatever he wants.
I do agree with you that some of the lessser trainers may get pressured by demanding owners. These trainers may be pressurd to do things that they don't want to do. That is not the case with Lukas.

Scurlogue Champ · #9 06-08-2006, 02:19 PM

He just finally got a win at Churchill.

Ex Caelis

Cajungator26 · #10 06-08-2006, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unbridled

Coolmore paid 16.2 million for a Forestry colt, not a filly. The Jones' raced Forestry and own him. He stands at Taylor Made.

Exactly. He's also the leading 3rd crop sire of stakes winners and sire of Discreet Cat. I'm not surprised that Coolmore paid over 16 million for one of his colts. Do you know who the dam of that colt is by?

Rupert Pupkin · #11 06-08-2006, 02:25 PM

You're not surprised that someone paid $16 million for a horse at a 2 year olds in training sale? You should be shocked. Everyone there was shocked. The previous record was $5 million. If the horse would have sold for $6 million, even that would have seen surprising. To see a horse sell for $16 million was shocking.

Cajungator26 · #12 06-08-2006, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You're not surprised that someone paid $16 million for a horse at a 2 year olds in training sale? You should be shocked. Everyone there was shocked. The previous record was $5 million. If the horse would have sold for $6 million, even that would have seen surprising. To see a horse sell for $16 million was shocking.

Nothing surprises me in this day and age... $16 mil is pocket change to an organization like Coolmore.

Unbridled · #13 06-08-2006, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Exactly. He's also the leading 3rd crop sire of stakes winners and sire of Discreet Cat. I'm not surprised that Coolmore paid over 16 million for one of his colts. Do you know who the dam of that colt is by?

Unbridled, what a coincidence! Here's a link to his pedigree:

http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2006/0228/153.pdf

I was wrong, they paid $16 million.

Cajungator26 · #14 06-08-2006, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unbridled

Unbridled, what a coincidenc! Here's a link to his pedigree:

http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2006/0228/153.pdf

I was wrong, they paid $16 million.

That colt has one hell of a pedigree. I hope to God he can run... LOL

Rupert Pupkin · #15 06-08-2006, 02:42 PM

I'm not going to go into any details about the transaction for that Forrestry colt. If someone else who is in the business wants to chime in and explain what actually happened they can. I will tell you one thing. They did not pay $16 million for that horse. There is a lot of funny business that goes on at these sales. Pretty much everyone in the business knows that they did not pay $16 million for that horse. I'll leave it at that.

#16 06-08-2006, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm not going to go into any details about the transaction for that Forrestry colt. If someone else who is in the business wants to chime in and explain what actually happened they can. I will tell you one thing. They did not pay $16 million for that horse. There is a lot of funny business that goes on at these sales. Pretty much everyone in the business knows that they did not pay $16 million for that horse. I'll leave it at that.

LOL!! Richi I know as well, but I'm not going there either. Made for great press though!!!