Thoro-Graph ROTW-VA Derby (+ Toga Seminars)

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Thanks for posting this Steve!

My pleasure! It's a very helpful analysis for anyone really interested in TG, and I completely saw the race the way Alan did.

There's a number of horses in this race whose career development is very distinct on the sheets. Note how Nicanor's races are alternating with the reaction last notably worse than the reaction two back. As Alan explains, he's still feeling the effects of the big, fast effort 4 back, and was headed for problems.

Hold Me Back has the two efforts (the paired 2's on Poly) that are notably faster than anything anyone else has run. A return to that level should he take to the grass OK, and there's no reason to think he won't, makes him the likely winner.

As Benewitz notes, both the Pletcher runners are in positon to run well at square prices, and the obvious other contenders seem OK but pretty underlaid.

Anyway, no need for me to reiterate what was written... Point is that it's a great write up just to help people understand the slightly different, and frequently (highly) profitable method TG users employ to wager.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

My pleasure! It's a very helpful analysis for anyone really interested in TG, and I completely saw the race the way Alan did.

There's a number of horses in this race whose career development is very distinct on the sheets. Note how Nicanor's races are alternating with the reaction last notably worse than the reaction two back. As Alan explains, he's still feeling the effects of the big, fast effort 4 back, and was headed for problems.

Hold Me Back has the two efforts (the paired 2's on Poly) that are notably faster than anything anyone else has run. A return to that level should he take to the grass OK, and there's no reason to think he won't, makes him the likely winner.

As Benewitz notes, both the Pletcher runners are in positon to run well at square prices, and the obvious other contenders seem OK but pretty underlaid.

Anyway, no need for me to reiterate what was written... Point is that it's a great write up just to help people understand the slightly different, and frequently (highly) profitable method TG users employ to wager.

I liked Hold Me Back, but the only thing that was giving me pause was he seems to be a horse that will take a lot of money for making his first start on Turf and I read that they put him here because the "race came at the right time" and winning a major race on dirt is their real goal. Now granted, this is coming from an owner whose interest is in making a stallion, but do you think that could mean they think he fits more on dirt?

[Kasept]

I wouldn't read too much into Walden's comments. Mott always expected to run him on grass along the way. WinStar is trying to author his schedule with the hope that they can manufacture a three surface stallion. Mott is being practical and trying to get an effort in a lucrative and logical spot.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

does the speaker work?

[Gaelic Storm]

So at 11:30am on weekends there will be a Thoro-Graph and DRF/NYRA seminars going on at the same time within 50 feet of each other. Tough call.

[the_fat_man]

"Trainer Goldberg is strong third off the layoff but one has to wonder about the bore outs (bo). Usually they’re not a good sign--they could signal potential physical problems or at the least, fatigue. Occasionally, counter-intuitively they point to better—the horse is gaining form and is trying his/her utmost so much so it wavers some but the effort is positive. That’s a tough read and an infrequent one. Much more often the pejorative implication is borne out—the horse bounces."

No kidding? Very informative. I particularly like the way the 'bore out' is tied to the 'bounce'. The 'bounce', a ubiquitous term that applies to just about anything.

Of course, while Straight Story drifted out in his race at BEL, he was actually CARRIED OUT by Al Khali in the Colonial Cup. Does being carried out have the same intuitive and counter-intuitive implications as the 'bore out'? And, more importantly, how does it connect to the 'bounce'. I'm sure it does. If a horse is carried out while running a lower number does it bounce?

Maybe next time someone who has actually watched a race can write some of this stuff.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

"Trainer Goldberg is strong third off the layoff but one has to wonder about the bore outs (bo). Usually they’re not a good sign--they could signal potential physical problems or at the least, fatigue. Occasionally, counter-intuitively they point to better—the horse is gaining form and is trying his/her utmost so much so it wavers some but the effort is positive. That’s a tough read and an infrequent one. Much more often the pejorative implication is borne out—the horse bounces."

No kidding? Very informative. I particularly like the way the 'bore out' is tied to the 'bounce'. The 'bounce', a ubiquitous term that applies to just about anything.

Of course, while Straight Story drifted out in his race at BEL, he was actually CARRIED OUT by Al Khali in the Colonial Cup. Does being carried out have the same intuitive and counter-intuitive implications as the 'bore out'? And, more importantly, how does it connect to the 'bounce'. I'm sure it does. If a horse is carried out while running a lower number does it bounce?

Maybe next time someone who has actually watched a race can write some of this stuff.

Fats,

Benewitz is talking in generalities there about patterns, efforts and possible subsequent performance. While the specifics of this circumstance aren't perfect in terms of what caused Straight Story's 2 widening runs, they aren't that important overall to what the general understanding of bore outs typically mean down the road. The ROTW write up is meant as more of a teaching tool than as a unique individual betting opportunity. Some one else pointed out to Alan on the TG forum that Straight was carried out in the Cup.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Gaelic Storm

So at 11:30am on weekends there will be a Thoro-Graph and DRF/NYRA seminars going on at the same time within 50 feet of each other. Tough call.

G/S,

That's being discussed. Gates open at 10:30 weekends, so we may roll the TG start back to 10:45 and go to 11:30. The TG host spends the afternoon at the Cue anyway and interacts all afternoon with the players.