Gotta love Saratoga/NYRA - Condition Book

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by gales0678

woolley was 0 for how many before the derby? Borel was what 30% or something ridiculously high at CD on 2 turn stakes races and it went higher if it was a muddy track - data can go both ways

didn't bill mott have a big year a couple of years ago with 2 yr olds ....a guy that had couldn't get 2 yr olds to win? if you looked at the data on mott for 2 yr olds you didn't play him that yr and lost out on many winners some at generous prices

Ed K will have a positive ROI with his 2 yr olds at saratoga this year , you won't read it in the booklet that they hand out , they will tell you to bet all the outfits that did well last year or 2 years ago .....it comes down to who has the horses steve you know that..

Gales

Take a deep breath, you're still missing the point. If there's anyone on this forum who disregards statistics it's me. This is because statistics deal with the general case and need not apply to a specific one. HOWEVER, that's not what you're looking at here. It's not a trainer that's 0 for whatever winning with a PARTICULAR horse, you're asking someone to win with MULTIPLE horses. In other words, the GENERAL case. And, here, statistics don't lie. K might win 1 or 2 but overall he'll be right where he should be --- at the low end percentage wise. So, you might cash on one but you'll give it all back on the others.

With all due respect, why are you gambing? Give your money to charity or your woman or your kids (if you have any); put to some better use.

[randallscott35]

I swear people would fight about if the sky were blue on here...baby races are exciting as to the original post, bring on Toga.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Gales

Take a deep breath, you're still missing the point. If there's anyone on this forum who disregards statistics it's me. This is because statistics deal with the general case and need not apply to a specific one. HOWEVER, that's not what you're looking at here. It's not a trainer that's 0 for whatever winning with a PARTICULAR horse, you're asking someone to win with MULTIPLE horses. In other words, the GENERAL case. And, here, statistics don't lie. K might win 1 or 2 but overall he'll be right where he should be --- at the low end percentage wise. So, you might cash on one but you'll give it all back on the others.

With all due respect, why are you gambing? Give your money to charity or your woman or your kids (if you have any); put to some better use.

Steve,

how many do you think he is going to start 50 ? He only has to put 1 or 2 over this meet and you will make $$$ with him , throw his runners out at your own peril this year , there is always a few "suprise" trainers , i think he will be one this year , will see

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Gales

Take a deep breath, you're still missing the point. If there's anyone on this forum who disregards statistics it's me. This is because statistics deal with the general case and need not apply to a specific one. HOWEVER, that's not what you're looking at here. It's not a trainer that's 0 for whatever winning with a PARTICULAR horse, you're asking someone to win with MULTIPLE horses. In other words, the GENERAL case. And, here, statistics don't lie. K might win 1 or 2 but overall he'll be right where he should be --- at the low end percentage wise. So, you might cash on one but you'll give it all back on the others.

With all due respect, why are you gambing? Give your money to charity or your woman or your kids (if you have any); put to some better use.

worst advice I had ever seen

Gales, keep betting, increase your handle, go for it!