Gotta love Saratoga/NYRA - Condition Book

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by gales0678

but again , please tell me what the last 5 yrs has to do with the stock he is taking to 'toga this year

are the same 2 yr olds going with him to 'toga this year?

You just don't get it apparently...That stats back up the fact that when Keaneally goes up to Saratoga with 2YOs, he simply doesn't do well for whatever reason. I mean yeah, he may do ok up there, but unfortunately for you and him there's going to be other horses running in the same 2YO races that Keaneally runs horses in. He's not going to be running races against mules. His 2YOs at Churchill have been running against maybe 4 trainers who are anything with 2YOs or that have any type of 2YOs in the barn (Assmussen, Amoss, Scherer, and Lukas). In case you didn't know there are trainers named Zito, Baffert, Pletcher, McLaughlin, and others. Historically he has not had his 2YOs ready to fire their best shot, what makes this year any different...

[gales0678]

[quote=JerseyJ]You just don't get it apparently...That stats back up the fact that when Keaneally goes up to Saratoga with 2YOs, he simply doesn't do well for whatever reason. I mean yeah, he may do ok up there, but unfortunately for you and him there's going to be other horses running in the same 2YO races that Keaneally runs horses in. He's not going to be running races against mules. His 2YOs at Churchill have been running against maybe 4 trainers who are anything with 2YOs or that have any type of 2YOs in the barn (Assmussen, Amoss, Scherer, and Lukas). In case you didn't know there are trainers named Zito, Baffert, Pletcher, McLaughlin, and others. Historically he has not had his 2YOs ready to fire their best shot, what makes this year any different...[/QUOTE]

the horses in the barn this year are different

[JerseyJ]

[quote=gales0678]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

You just don't get it apparently...That stats back up the fact that when Keaneally goes up to Saratoga with 2YOs, he simply doesn't do well for whatever reason. I mean yeah, he may do ok up there, but unfortunately for you and him there's going to be other horses running in the same 2YO races that Keaneally runs horses in. He's not going to be running races against mules. His 2YOs at Churchill have been running against maybe 4 trainers who are anything with 2YOs or that have any type of 2YOs in the barn (Assmussen, Amoss, Scherer, and Lukas). In case you didn't know there are trainers named Zito, Baffert, Pletcher, McLaughlin, and others. Historically he has not had his 2YOs ready to fire their best shot, what makes this year any different...[/QUOTE]

the horses in the barn this year are different

And frankly, it doesn't matter to me, because He has NOT PROVEN that he can win with 2YOs and firsters at Saratoga.

It's like I said, you think that Assmussen, Lukas, Zito, Baffert, Pletcher, McLaughlin and other trainers who have outstanding stock for 2YOs on a regular basis are going to be sending out rats up at Saratoga in 2YO races? Keneally is going to have to run his 2YOs against OTHER TALENTED 2YOs. You think those guys I mentioned don't want to win races at Saratoga with 2YOs? You think that Lukas doesn't want to win with a Whitney 2YO, Zito with LaPenta, Baffert for Zayat or Pegram, Pletcher for Coolmore, Assmussen for whomever? You are out of your freaking mind if you think that Keneally's going to outperform those guys with 2YOs at Saratoga.

[gales0678]

[quote=JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by gales0678

And frankly, it doesn't matter to me, because He has NOT PROVEN that he can win with 2YOs and firsters at Saratoga.

It's like I said, you think that Assmussen, Lukas, Zito, Baffert, Pletcher, McLaughlin and other trainers who have outstanding stock for 2YOs on a regular basis are going to be sending out rats up at Saratoga in 2YO races? Keneally is going to have to run his 2YOs against OTHER TALENTED 2YOs. You think those guys I mentioned don't want to win races at Saratoga with 2YOs? You think that Lukas doesn't want to win with a Whitney 2YO, Zito with LaPenta, Baffert for Zayat or Pegram, Pletcher for Coolmore, Assmussen for whomever? You are out of your freaking mind if you think that Keneally's going to outperform those guys with 2YOs at Saratoga.

i'm not talking about outperforming anyone , i'm talking about a positive ROI this year , do i think his barn will have the most 2 yr old winners of the meet no? but i think he will have some ready to go and he will show a postive ROI , he will fill in some nice ex's and tri's in the baby races this year , throw his runners out this year based on what the barn has done over the last 5 yrs at your own peril

[JerseyJ]

[quote=gales0678]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

i'm not talking about outperforming anyone , i'm talking about a positive ROI this year , do i think his barn will have the most 2 yr old winners of the meet no? but i think he will have some ready to go and he will show a postive ROI , he will fill in some nice ex's and tri's in the baby races this year , throw his runners out this year based on what the barn has done over the last 5 yrs at your own peril

Here's what you aren't getting though. In order for him to have a positive ROI on $2 win bets, his horses are going to have to beat the horses from the stables I mentioned, which isn't very likely to happen very often, hence why it will be tough for him to win many 2YO races at Saratoga, and tough therefore to build an ROI.

[gales0678]

[quote=JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by gales0678

Here's what you aren't getting though. In order for him to have a positive ROI on $2 win bets, his horses are going to have to beat the horses from the stables I mentioned, which isn't very likely to happen very often, hence why it will be tough for him to win many 2YO races at Saratoga, and tough therefore to build an ROI.

all it takes is 1 or 2 at a nice px for the meet to show a positive ROI , remember when he is in those full fields with the trainers you mention they will be taking a lot of $$$, his horses odds will be higher in 'toga than the rest of they year when he is at AP + CD + GP

saratoga is 6 short weeks

i will make you a bet that he has a positive ROI with his 2 yr olds this yr at toga ..... I can wire the $ to saratoga tomorrow byk can hold it and pay the winner when the meet ends