7/4-5 (HOL): American H. (G2); American Oaks (G1); Triple Bend (G1)

[brockguy]

I think Rare Ransom could well be a nice price tonight for this. She has a much better chance than Apple Charlotte in my opinion..

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by brockguy

I think Rare Ransom could well be a nice price tonight for this. She has a much better chance than Apple Charlotte in my opinion..

I'm starting to think she's the wise guy horse. There goes any hope of double digit odds.

[brockguy]

+ Weld
+ will improve for the step up in trip
+ she's already beaten older horses
+ shes tacticly versatile

- Pat Smullen
- She prefers soft going

defo worth the bet if she's higher than the other Euro..

[hockey2315]

I like her a lot.

[NTamm1215]

Aside from the Dermot Weld and first lasix angles, which are usually overbet, I'm not seeing what there is to like about Rare Ransom. The Rooftop race just did not look very impressive and she beat a field that didn't quicken on a boggy course.

Adding a quarter of a mile to the farthest she's ever gone is also a problem in my opinion. I doubt she'll struggle with the distance in the end, but it's a concern. Her last win also came on the pace and she's not going to get the lead here.

I think, like last year, this is a B list group of imports and the Americans will hold up well.

NT

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Aside from the Dermot Weld and first lasix angles, which are usually overbet, I'm not seeing what there is to like about Rare Ransom. The Rooftop race just did not look very impressive and she beat a field that didn't quicken on a boggy course.

Adding a quarter of a mile to the farthest she's ever gone is also a problem in my opinion. I doubt she'll struggle with the distance in the end, but it's a concern. Her last win also came on the pace and she's not going to get the lead here.

I think, like last year, this is a B list group of imports and the Americans will hold up well.

NT

You could well be spot on. I was telling Bigs earlier on this week that I didnt really see either as a true G1 filly. Weld said she compared favourably to Dimitrova but I dont see it that way! I suppose it all depends how good the local team are.

[eajinabi]

Third Dawn looks like he may run a good race. Sadler takes an ambitous turn with this one but has run in the money 6 of 7 starts with his bad one was a horrible break from the gat at Keeneland. I will take a shot here.

The Bet:
$100 WP Third Dawn

[dalakhani]

I like Magical Affair at 8-1. Someone tell me why that is a bad bet.

[hockey2315]

She shouldn't be 8-1.

[Gander]

Theres no bad bet in here. Good luck. If you cash in here, you'll get paid.
I'm taking a shot with Mrs Kipling, who is also a pretty fair price.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I like Magical Affair at 8-1. Someone tell me why that is a bad bet.

Cause I like her too.

[the_fat_man]

When you see Kent ride patiently, getting in position on the turn but just sitting there, not going after the leaders because it makes no sense at that point, you wonder about all his (and other jocks') premature moves.

[hockey2315]

Nice, Julien.