|
|
 |
|
|
|
#1
07-03-2009, 12:54 PM
|
||||
|
||||
The check was trivial.
|
|
#2
07-03-2009, 12:55 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Explain.
|
|
#3
07-03-2009, 01:05 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
The horse was in a perfect spot when the checks happened. It was not only BEHIND (a row) of horses but it was also BETWEEN horses (multiple, especially to its outside). Which means that there was a steady FLOW carrying it around the track. Now, when it checked, though it fell back slightly, it did NOT lose contact with the horses to its front or sides and thus was still within the pocket of flow. So, the check was negligible, as it didn't really lose much in terms of position or have to work harder to get back into the same position. Once clear, when they hit the stretch, this horse had nothing.
|
|
#4
07-03-2009, 01:12 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
I understand the logic, but aren't you discounting the fact that the horse was a firster that was probably discouraged and couldn't win after that kind of trouble? He didn't have a trip in the sense that he had a bad set-up, was 5 wide around the turn, etc., but he still had a trip that prevented him from contending for the win. He's almost certainly a better horse than he was able to show in his debut and is bred for the stretch-out, but the problem is that anyone capable of reading the PPs will get that.
|
|
#5
07-03-2009, 01:22 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
I just think that following horses like this is basically a waste of time. It's the most basic level of trip handicapping. You can't win betting back horses that had trouble, IMO. How do I know? I'm an empiricist: 25+ years ago I was doing the same thing.
CSC picks some winners but his trip horses are all of the same type: horses that had trouble and failed to run next out. Last edited by the_fat_man : 07-03-2009 at 01:32 PM.
|
|
#6
07-03-2009, 01:26 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
|
|
#8
07-03-2009, 02:14 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Admissible in today's 4th also has a trouble line. Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Blocked Stretch; evened out. Can we make a case for her? 
|
|
#9
07-03-2009, 02:22 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
3/1 on Admissible is a trap unless he improves as a second time starter. I don't have a strong enough opinion on him to play this race as he is the only obvious alternative to the #1's. But goodluck to anyone who plays him, I always love seeing the 'chalk' fall.
Edit-Baytree is far more interesting IMO>
|
Hybrid Mode
