Can you make money on Rachel/Zenyatta today?

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

I'm thinking a straight exacta Rachel Alexandra over Don't Forget Gil in the Mother Goose and a Tri box in the Vanity Dawn After Dawn, Modification and Zenyatta.

Thinking there will be major bridge jumping on both. Might bet Dawn After Dawn to show as Zenyatta will throw in a clunker one of these days. Speed may crawl early as they try to save up something for the late run of Zenyatta. As good as she is, her running style always leaves her vulnerable.

I was thinking that out of all the races being run this weekend this is where your handicapping skills have zeroed in on to make a profit.

Seems like a race to watch.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

111 Beyer for Rachel Alexandra.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

111 Beyer for Rachel Alexandra.

What did you come up with?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by freddymo

What did you come up with?

111 seems fine.

[blackthroatedwind]

Zenyatta got a 104.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

That's new lifetime tops for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place in behind her.

I guess Zenyatta just brings out the best in her competition.

Obviously the extreme weight shift was going to bring them somewhat closer together in that race.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That's new lifetime tops for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place in behind her.

I guess Zenyatta just brings out the best in her competition.

Obviously the extreme weight shift was going to bring them somewhat closer together in that race.

slow pace as well on synthetic.....they need to get her on dirt where I bet her figure goes up.

[tector]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

111 Beyer for Rachel Alexandra.

Any word on Zenyatta?

Unless it was pretty good, that would mean RA's last three races were all substantially faster than anything Zenyatta has run this year. These three races would include RA's race in the Preakness which, to me, was about as ideal a set-up as a horse like Zenyatta could hope for when facing RA.

If, under those circumstances, RA can run faster than what Zenyatta is doing this year, that doesn't bode well for Zenyatta in any match up.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by tector

Any word on Zenyatta?

Unless it was pretty good, that would mean RA's last three races were all substantially faster than anything Zenyatta has run this year. These three races would include RA's race in the Preakness which, to me, was about as ideal a set-up as a horse like Zenyatta could hope for when facing RA.

If, under those circumstances, RA can run faster than what Zenyatta is doing this year, that doesn't bode well for Zenyatta in any match up.

The issue is will Zenyatta move forward on dirt. Is she faster on dirt? Or is she POTN just a very good poly/cushion type? I think her going to Oaklawn hinted that she is more then just a Cal Gal but Rachel seems so good and getting better!

[tector]

I don't have any real worries about Zenyatta on dirt, but I have no basis to believe that should would pull a IWR, either--that seems to be the exception, not the rule. Moreover, her general running style seems to be favored more often on poly than dirt.

[freddymo]

It could be a Winning Colors Personal Ensign type of thing..Or Rachel could just run away and hide? Not sure..Hoping for the best, first for them to meet and then, a photo finish with each one bringing out the very best in the other. Now lets see the owners and racing get it done..I think its pretty obvious who most people believe is faster. Think about an 11 for 11 muliple G1 winning mare not being favored to win.. Speaks a lot about Rachel

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by tector

Any word on Zenyatta?

Unless it was pretty good, that would mean RA's last three races were all substantially faster than anything Zenyatta has run this year. These three races would include RA's race in the Preakness which, to me, was about as ideal a set-up as a horse like Zenyatta could hope for when facing RA.

If, under those circumstances, RA can run faster than what Zenyatta is doing this year, that doesn't bode well for Zenyatta in any match up.

Zenyatta's fig logically should be 100 or maybe 101 tops. It was the only synthetic route of the day.

A 103 or higher is in line with her form ... but that means they have the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers all running lifetime career tops in the same race .. something that is almost impossible in a 6 horse field of older horses who have each run many times before.

Obviously Beyers don't take weight into account - and they can be overly sensative with the way they do things with big horses like Zenyatta.

By giving Zenyatta a respectable fig in line with her form .. you basically have to overrate the performances of all those horses who finished in behind her.

The correct thing is to give Zenyatta the mediocre number that she ran - and leave handicappers to factor in the big weight shift she gave away for themselves as a reason why the performance was better than her medicore fig would suggest.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by tector

Any word on Zenyatta?

Unless it was pretty good, that would mean RA's last three races were all substantially faster than anything Zenyatta has run this year. These three races would include RA's race in the Preakness which, to me, was about as ideal a set-up as a horse like Zenyatta could hope for when facing RA.

If, under those circumstances, RA can run faster than what Zenyatta is doing this year, that doesn't bode well for Zenyatta in any match up.

They have two differant running styles and I still want to see the race.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

They have two differant running styles and I still want to see the race.

Zenyatta is a pretty slow horse actually, a 108 top puts her just average historically in socal for horses who are undefeated, BC champ, multiple g1 winner, etc. She is many lengths behind even such a horse like Azeri.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Zenyatta is a pretty slow horse actually, a 108 top puts her just average historically in socal for horses who are undefeated, BC champ, multiple g1 winner, etc. She is many lengths behind even such a horse like Azeri.

Azeri never ran on plastic so I don't think you can compare the two. To me, it seems that synthetic BSFs are not in line with dirt numbers, much the same as turf numbers. I am no expert but I think the synthetic numbers are probably 4 or 5 points lower on average than dirt numbers for animals of the same caliber..

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Slewbopper

Azeri never ran on plastic so I don't think you can compare the two. To me, it seems that synthetic BSFs are not in line with dirt numbers, much the same as turf numbers. I am no expert but I think the synthetic numbers are probably 4 or 5 points lower on average than dirt numbers for animals of the same caliber..

Didn't they change the formula for synthetic numbers?

[tector]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

They have two differant running styles and I still want to see the race.

So get in that long line that has already formed.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by tector

So get in that long line that has already formed.

Why are you in line, it seems that you already ran the race.

[tector]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

Why are you in line, it seems that you already ran the race.

Reading comprehension is not your strong suit I see.

[MaTH716]

I personally think that the payouts in the pick 3 & 4 that included Rachel Alexandra were very good. I know that there was a $40 horse in the sequance, but you would think that was the race you could have went deep in. I know I was 5 deep in that race on a $45 ticket and of course didn't have the winner. I'm thinking that some people even went deeper or even using the all button in that race (which was the toughest and most wide open one of the sequance) and were rewarded with some generous payouts.