Oracle/Rupert...Debbie Got Even

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not a result oriented guy Joel. I don't care what names may be attached to races horses ran. The simple fact is that both races were slow. I gave credit to Cotton Blossom for circling the field, though the second finisher had a tougher trip, but after her mediocre Spinaway effort I decided she has a strong case of the " slows ".

As for Octave, and the Adirondack, did you watch the race and evaluate the race from a pace and trip perspective? The race had about as big a pace/final time fig disparity as a race can have. She saved ground and had a perfect trip in a VERY slow race. She is a BUM. If you want to tell me Cotton Blossom will improve stretching out I will grant you that possibility, though I doubt she will beat anybody in even a relatively quickly run race, but Octave is simply a slow horse.

yeah, I think less of Octave and want to clarify that I don't love either one of them...I think Cotton Blossom has more upside for stretching out....The problem is that there is only around 8 weeks till the Breeders' Cup and there really isn't a filly that I love because none of them appear to be much to this point....I even am not the biggest fan of Point Ashley buy you have to say that she is the #1 seed right now....I thougt I really liked Jump On In but she looked like a $10K claimer in the lane the other day without much excuse...

I also thought Steve Flint's filly Change Up may be alright (and she will be okay), but she is clearly a balls-to-the-wall, one-turn animal as well....there's just nobody to get excited about in this division that has accomplished anything..

I actually like Zito's filly on her upside and ability to get the distance the best right now, but thats not saying much.....

[blackthroatedwind]

I don't know anything about the California horses and I realize there isn't much to go on from what we have seen from the maiden breakers. They are all just a bunch of possible potential. The stakes winners we have seen from Pletcher are mediocrities at the absolute best and will never beat any horses of true talent without the benfit of a LOT of help. On the other hand, we haven't seen enough from the East Coast fillies to be sure they are better. However, it won't take much.

The problem with liking either Octave or Cotton Blossom going forward is that we have seen three races from them and they have already taken a step or two back. It's not like that barn is known for resuscitating horses. I think we've seen the best from those two, and it aint much, and at least the newer and fresher faces haven't exposed themselves. Perhaps they won't be much either, but I would rather take a shot with them than the exposed mediocrities.

[blackthroatedwind]

It's hard for me to keep track of all the maiden breakers of Zito's from Saratoga, but it seems to me that Autobahn Girl, who is still a maiden, might prove to be the best. I liked her second to Imperial Reign who also may be very good.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's hard for me to keep track of all the maiden breakers of Zito's from Saratoga, but it seems to me that Autobahn Girl, who is still a maiden, might prove to be the best. I liked her second to Imperial Reign who also may be very good.

Yeah, she's got a runner's family, but her half sister, Chic and Hide, was a bona-fide sprinter and she was by the stamina-influenced Seeking the Gold - yet she could not go two-turns.....makes you wonder if thsi A.P. Indy filly will go on - although you would think she would......I ahevn't seen her or paid attention to her body type to understand what she is built for....Does she possess a routers body like most A.P. Indys?...long-bodied, etc....

The other problem with her is that she needs to break that maiden QUICK to have a serious pitch to point for the BC Juvy Fillies....might be a better 3yo if she is like most A.P. Indys....

Is Nick going to run her at Belmont or is he pointing for Keeneland with her? I would imagine he'll keep her in NY and try to win quickly with her there so that he can try to make Nov. 4th if he thinks she's that good....

[blackthroatedwind]

She could still break her maiden in a week or so and make the Frizette. Follow the Sun King route. As for knowing Nick's plans....I make it a point to let people tell me things. I don't particularly like to ask. If they want my opinion they can ask but I don't get up at 4 in the morning, or work 365 days a year, for over 12 hours a day, so I don't ask. And if I did....I wouldn't repeat it here anyway.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's hard for me to keep track of all the maiden breakers of Zito's from Saratoga, but it seems to me that Autobahn Girl, who is still a maiden, might prove to be the best. I liked her second to Imperial Reign who also may be very good.

I like Imperial Reign a lot too.. Very impressed with that one so far.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't know anything about the California horses and I realize there isn't much to go on from what we have seen from the maiden breakers. They are all just a bunch of possible potential. The stakes winners we have seen from Pletcher are mediocrities at the absolute best and will never beat any horses of true talent without the benfit of a LOT of help. On the other hand, we haven't seen enough from the East Coast fillies to be sure they are better. However, it won't take much.

The problem with liking either Octave or Cotton Blossom going forward is that we have seen three races from them and they have already taken a step or two back. It's not like that barn is known for resuscitating horses. I think we've seen the best from those two, and it aint much, and at least the newer and fresher faces haven't exposed themselves. Perhaps they won't be much either, but I would rather take a shot with them than the exposed mediocrities.

I guess I can't argue there...This year's BC Juvy filly winner might be like an Action This Day was a few years back...it has that feel to it right now with just 8 weeks till the race....Baffert will probably be even money and a bad fave at that price....

Who are you looking at right now as far as 2yo colts that are quality and could go on in the BC Juvenile?...It is well documented who I have hung myself out on here.....

[blackthroatedwind]

I have no idea and to be honest I don't pay an enormous amount of attention to the BC. I am primarily a day to day player and I try and focus on what is in front of me. Marrying myself to horses at this point won't do me any financial good.

That Assmussen/Blasi maiden breaker from closing weekend looked pretty damn good though. I would say he was the most impressive 2YO winner of the meet. He won pretty easily. I'm sorry City Snitch is out, as he looked good as well, though it's hard to guess how far he will go. I certainly have no problem looking past the stakes winners we saw at Saratoga, as while perhaps Circular Quay is a little better than I thought, I am not going to get excited about a horse who won a five horse race with effectively a four horse duel in front of him. The one interesting thing about him is that he seems to be a rare closer from that barn. I am curious to see if he maintains his running style effectively as they go longer. Regardless, I look forward to betting against him at a short price in the right spot.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I have no idea and to be honest I don't pay an enormous amount of attention to the BC. I am primarily a day to day player and I try and focus on what is in front of me. Marrying myself to horses at this point won't do me any financial good.

That Assmussen/Blasi maiden breaker from closing weekend looked pretty damn though. I would say he was the most impressive 2YO winner of the meet. He won pretty easily. I'm sorry City Snitch is out, as he looked good as well, though it's hard to guess how far he will go. I certainly have no problem looking past the stakes winners we saw at Saratoga, as while perhaps Circular Quay is a little better than I thought, I am not going to get excited about a horse who won a five horse race with effectively a four horse duel in front of him. The one interesting thing about him is that he seems to be a rare closer from that barn. I am curious to see if he maintains his running style effectively as they go longer. Regardless, I look forward to betting against him at a short price in the right spot.

I take it you're not a Scat Daddy fan then ......................Asmussen's colt is a runner, but Steve has always thought that Napa Cat was his best 2YO - but that colt is on the shelf right now......

[blackthroatedwind]

Scat Daddy is talented. My problem is that over the past horses from that barn have not gone on so I am skeptical about any of them. Clearly Circular Quay and Scat Daddy are talented but I will take a wait and see approach. Too many of Pletcher's horses disappear as quickly as they appear.

Don't get me wrong, the guy is a terrific trainer, who runs a superior operation, but with the " win-early " focus unfortunately we have seen too much burnout. That is somewhat why Circular Quay intrigues me, as his running style doesn't fit their normal profile, but so far none of the early flashes from that barn ( at least as far as colts are concerned because Ashado was around forever ) have really panned out. But, they get too many well bred and talented horses to not eventually have some major TC contendors.

And I don't mean ridiculously overhyped bums like Bandini.

[ArlJim78]

this is the type of thread content i doubt if you could ever find anywhere else. with all the new people coming over right now it surely sets a good example of what to expect. very interesting analysis.

good job all, especially BTW, Cunningham, and GPK.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And I don't mean ridiculously overhyped bums like Bandini.

Can I use this as my new tagline?! I totally agree.

What was your opinion on Kauai Calls, who came out of Blasi's stable?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dixie Porter

I assume you already know I have no particular love for any horse, or am I a fan of any horse. That being said, if this horse was to get cast in his stall this morning and never run again that would still rank high as one of the dumbest remarks I have ever seen posted.

Is he talking about Bandini or Bernardini? I assume he is talking about Bandini. Bandini actually had a lot of potential but he had some physical problems and never lived up to his full potential. Even in the big 3 year old races in Florida last year, I don't think you were seeing Bandini's best races. I think they were already having problems with his ankle. They managed to get a one more good race out of him in the Bluegrass but he was done after that. One of my trainers saw him being lead over to the paddock for the Ky Derby and he told me that one of his ankles was huge. The connections tried to act like he hurt his ankle in the Derby but he had the bad ankle before the Derby.

By the way, Bandini is already retired so you don't have to worry about him getting cast in his stall and retiring.