Lukas Handicapping Angle

[Rupert Pupkin]

As I said in a previous post, I don't know what goes on at smaller tracks with $5,000 horses. I'm sure there is a lot of really bad stuff going on in terms of lame horses being forced to run horses breaking down. There is even bad stuff going on at Santa Anita with the cheaper horses. However, Lukas is the only trainer that I am aware that treats good horses like $5,000 claimers. When I say that he treats them like $5k claimers, I am talking about the way he refuses to turn them out and will keep running them even with serious injuries. He basically won't turn them out until they are physically incapable of running. I don't know any other trainer that does that. That is why I can't stand him. He is an absolute butcher.
To answer your question, I highly doubt that many trainers go up to Lukas or any other trainer and tell them that they don't know how to train. That doesn't happen in any field. A doctor doesn't go up to another doctor and tell him that he is a lousy doctor.
The things I tell you about Lukas are not a secret. Everyone on the backstretch will tell you the same thing I'm telling you. Ever since we have had these debates, has anyone in the busines that posts on these boards ever disputed anything that I have said about Lukas? The answer is no. People like Honu and Landson have never had a problem with anything that I have said about Lukas. Whenever they have chimed in to the discussion, they have always agreed with everyting I have said.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

With regard to the poster who said that Lukas' percentage of breakdowns is high because he has a lot of horses, that is totally inaccurate. A trainer that has a lot of horses will have a higher total number of breakdowns, but he will not have a higher percenatge of breakdowns. If one trainer has 1,000 horses over a 20 year period and 50 of those horses break down, that means that 5% of his horses broke down. If another guy had 400 horses and he had 20 horses break down, then that would also be 5%. These guys would have an equal number of breakdowns in terms of percentages.

Okay, but do you have the numbers for Lukas? What % of his horses have actually broken down? What's the average for Frankel, Baffert, Pletcher, etc? Lukas has been the focus of attention going back to before Union City. Once someone gets a bad rep, people tend to remember absolutely every bad thing that happens.

Someone mentioned in passing that Halfbridled and Sweet Catomine didn't have much success in their 3-yr-old seasons either. But no one thinks for a minute that Mandella and Canani are to blame. However, as soon as Folklore is mentioned, well, that's another data point against Lukas.

Rupert, I don't doubt your observations about the way Lukas treats his horses, but I question the conclusion. You are saying that a higher percentage of Lukas's horses break down. Do you have numbers to support that claim?

--Dunbar

[Rupert Pupkin]

As I have stated before, his percentages of breakdowns is so high that that there are insurance companies that will not insure his horses. I don't have the numbers but the insurance companies have them. In addition, he has more horses get eased and pulled up than anyone. The numbers are stagerring. I don't remember what the exact figure was but his number of horses that ease is around 3x or 4x times higher than the average trainer. The numbers confirm what everyone in the business already knows.

[Buffymommy]

The dude is 70 years old. Give the guy a break! Are you as good at 70 as you are at say 40 or 50? Dang. The dude had no where to go but down. And for those critizing how he trains horses back in his heyday, do you honestly think that the other trainers around weren't doing the same exact thing he was? Not all but more than not.

Give the guy a break. He is in his 70s and starting to slow down. The dude was on top of the world at one time. I still remember when Winning Colors won the Kentucky Derby. (LOVED THAT FILLY as well as his other top filly Lady's Secret). The man has had champions. You may not like how he got there, but he got there nonetheless. Others were probably doing the same things he was training and they didn't get there, he did.

Give the Lukas bashing a rest will ya? Do we have to discuss it every week?

[miraja2]

I generally agree with the Lukas-bashers, but I don't think Going Wild ran in all 3 legs of the TC last year. My memory may be failing me, but I think he only ran in the Derby and the Preakness. I am almost positive that he did not run in the Belmont.

Lukas was never known to train older horses. His drive was to win TC races and that is all. All owners know this. Back in the 80's and 90's you gave your horse to Lukas if you wanted to win a TC race. Lukas has had some good older horses--Spain, Cat Thief to name a couple. But Lukas is old school and I don't know how you can argue his success. The thing about Lukas that is so neat is the success of his prodigy. Not only did he train several champions but he was also the mentor to some of the best trainers in the game today. To me, that is a sign of a good trainer.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

As I have stated before, his percentages of breakdowns is so high that that there are insurance companies that will not insure his horses. I don't have the numbers but the insurance companies have them. In addition, he has more horses get eased and pulled up than anyone. The numbers are stagerring. I don't remember what the exact figure was but his number of horses that ease is around 3x or 4x times higher than the average trainer. The numbers confirm what everyone in the business already knows.

Again, this could be a combination of selective memory and the number of horses he trains. I don't know how many he is training now, but he used to have an empire. Of course he was going to have 3x to 4x the number of eases as an "average trainer". I know you are asserting that his percentage is also much higher, but, well, I'd like to see figs that support that assertion.

As far as the insurance companies, go...this sounds like 2nd or 3rd hand info. Do we know if it is the big insurance companies that won't insure him?

Again, I am not doubting your observations that Lukas will run horses that shouldn't be running. But I'd need more than anecdotal evidence before I'd condemn him for actually breaking down a higher percentage of horses than his peers.

--Dunbar

[Rupert Pupkin]

Dunbar, I'm not sure I understand your question regarding his percentage of horses that ease. The information is straight forward. Not only is it easy to see from observation, but the numbers show it to be true. How often do you see a Mandella, Pletcher, Frankel, Clement, or Ellis horse ease? It is extremely rare. You see Lukas horses easing all the time. There is no innocent explanation for it. He constantly runs horses that are so lame that they don't even finish the race. By the way, I believe that the figures included any horse that got beat by over 30 lengths.
With regard to the insurance companies, I know for sure that one of the biggest companies will not insure his horses.
I am really baffled at some of the questions that you guys come up with. You know that I love analogies so I will give you another one. We see the same guy stumble out of a bar every night. It is obvious that he is an alcholic. Not only do we see him stumble out of the bar every night but we know that he has over 10 DUI arrests. You would be asking me "How can we be sure he is an alcoholic? Are you sure that the average person doesn't have 10 DUIs? How do you know that the police don't just have it in for this guy? are you sure that people are exaggerating about this guy? I'm sure that everybody has gotten drunk before."
This is what your questions and comments sound like. I don't know what you guys ae looking for. Everything I'm telling you is true. Everyone in the business that has ever chimed into these debates has said the same thing. All the evidence supports what I'm telling you. I don't know what else there is to say. If you don't want to believe it then don't believe it.

[videogirl10]

i have a question....if lukas's horses aren't being insured b/c of his problems, then why do owners still go to him? wouldn't they want their high priced horses insured? and if he isn't doing a good job, then why do owners send their horses to him?

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

D.W. Lukas 2006 statistics

215 starters - 15 win - 32 place - 33 show - $1,117,622

6.97% winners (lowest among top 100 trainers in nation per Equibase)
37.2% in the money (96th among top 100 trainers in nation per Equibase)

Hate to say it, but if this is the best he can do with clients like Beverly Lewis and Overbrook maybe it is time for him to hang it up. Yes, he did get Folklore a win in the BCJF, but for me two horses in the past four Triple Crowns really show me that this guy is just reaching. Both Going Wild and Ten Cents a Shine were TROUNCED in the final KD preps with no excuses yet he continued on to the Derby and when the were crushed there, he went to the Preakness. Why, who knows? I personally will not be betting this guy at all anymore...

[Rootdog1]

I can back up the insurance statement. His DNF rates are the highest of any top/middle tier trainer, and most owners that use him pay a premium for insurance. Why he still gets horses is a great question......he still sells the dream and has enough history/reputation for those believers out there.

[Unbridled]

Originally Posted by monipenny

You have stated your case tirelessly about Lukas running lame horses and having horses eased far more times then his elite company, but do you really think he does what he pleases with these horses without consulting his big time owners. I don't think so? This game is all about results and winning and if you can not identify with that then I digress. Rup- if you like analogies so much then here is one for you- Joe Paterno arguably one of the greatest college coaches and classy guys is basically told win or else in 2004; well program had two great back to back years. His team last year flew under the radar the whole season until the year end Bowl games. Now with Lukas- if someone had to light a fire under his asss to get him to start producing don't you really think he would do this under most circumstances. Yes by injecting steroids into horses and yes by injecting their knees and running them through the lameness they can not feel, but will eventually break down and go lame. The driving force in this game is all about results- Why then would Coolmore give this 13 million Forestry filly too Pletcher? It's results plain and simple. Now if they hit the jackpot with this filly the residual value of Forestry goes through the roof. Who owns Forestry? You guessed it Coolmore.

Coolmore paid 16 million for a Forestry colt, not a filly. The Jones' raced Forestry and own him. He stands at Taylor Made.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Monipenny, Lukas' biggest ownners the last few years have been and Bob and Beverly Lewis. You could not have better ownes than that. The Lewises are not demanding. They don't put pressure on Lukas. They let him do whatever he wants.
I do agree with you that some of the lessser trainers may get pressured by demanding owners. These trainers may be pressurd to do things that they don't want to do. That is not the case with Lukas.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Unbridled

Coolmore paid 16.2 million for a Forestry colt, not a filly. The Jones' raced Forestry and own him. He stands at Taylor Made.

Exactly. He's also the leading 3rd crop sire of stakes winners and sire of Discreet Cat. I'm not surprised that Coolmore paid over 16 million for one of his colts. Do you know who the dam of that colt is by?