What if Invasor and Bernardini split?

and i'm not sure why so many think it's between invasor and bernardini, with lava man sitting alone at the top of the polls. one of them will come out of the jcgc a loser, pretty much guaranteeing no shot at hoy--not if one of the other two wins the bcc! if one of the two wins both, he's hoy. if all three fail in the bcc...well, now, it'll get mighty interesting!!!