What if Invasor and Bernardini split?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Actually I really like those odds on Invasor and would consider them on Lava Man. They are way too low on Bernardini for my money. Considering my first mortgage payment is due on the 1st I'm not in the position to be loading up on anything, especially future bets.

Well, applying my 30% sidelined estimate, 13-2 today is roughly the same as 9-2 on BC day. If Invasor beats Bernardini in the JCGC, that 9-2 would look great. If he gets trounced by Bernardini in the JCGC, the 9-2 won't look so hot. Similar thoughts about Lava Man's final prep.

As a general rule, futures have to be approached with a good deal of caution and skepticism. For example, the list above equates to a 27.6% track take! And it's worse than that because the winner of the BCC might not even be on that list of horses.

That's not to say certain individual horses in that list could not provide value.

Unless I saw a number that I absolutely loved, I would wait until Pinnacle and/or TheGreek put up their futures.

--Dunbar