What if Invasor and Bernardini split?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Just checked, and odds are not posted at Gameday this morning. But it was definitely 12-5 (2.4-1) on Bernardini within the past 2 days. The only change in the "Big Three" that I could see from a few days earlier was that Lava Man had moved from 7-1 to 13-2. I also noticed that David Junior had dropped from 12-1 to 10-1. Those moves could have been explained simply by the loss of Electrocutionist.

I just checked again, and the futures are up now:

Bernadini 12 to 5
Invasor 13 to 2
Lava Man 13 to 2
Discreet Cat 20 to 1
David Junior 10 to 1
Suave 40 to 1
Brother Derek 30 to 1
Flower Alley 40 to 1
Jazil 20 to 1
Bright One 20 to 1
lawyer Ron 20 to 1
Sun King 25 to 1
Perfect Drift 40 to 1
Seek Gold 40 to 1
Giacomo 40 to 1
Stevie Wonderboy 30 to 1
Buzzards Bay 50 to 1
Premium Tap 30 to 1
Second of June 40 to 1
Cindago 25 to 1
Bob and John 30 to 1
Dylan Thomas 12 to 1
Shirroco 10 to 1

Dylan Thomas and Shirroco must have been added this morning.

If anyone thinks the winner MUST come from LM, Bernardini, or Invasor, he or she can get almost 4-5 by taking all 3 in futures in this ratio:

If you bet $Y on Lava Man, then bet $Y on Invasor and 2.2 x $Y on Bernardini.

However, for that to be a good bet, the chance that one of those 3 wins the BCC would have to be 56% or more. The reality is, at this point there is probably LESS than a 56% chance that one of the "Big 3" will win the BC Classic. If you strongly disagree with that statement, then you should be loading up on the 3 futures above.

--Dunbar

[Cajungator26]

Has anyone heard anything regarding Bright One? Is he back in training?

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Has anyone heard anything regarding Bright One? Is he back in training?

He is being pointed towards the Indiana Derby Grade II

[smuthg]

What is the latest on Sweetnorthernsaint? I saw him at 30-1 to win the BC Classic a few weeks ago; is he out? Still think he got checked in the stretch of the Preakness (not that it would have made a difference)...

Originally Posted by smuthg

What is the latest on Sweetnorthernsaint? I saw him at 30-1 to win the BC Classic a few weeks ago; is he out? Still think he got checked in the stretch of the Preakness (not that it would have made a difference)...

just resumed training....i wouldn't look for him at churchill, discreet cat either.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I just checked again, and the futures are up now:

Bernadini 12 to 5
Invasor 13 to 2
Lava Man 13 to 2
Discreet Cat 20 to 1
David Junior 10 to 1
Suave 40 to 1
Brother Derek 30 to 1
Flower Alley 40 to 1
Jazil 20 to 1
Bright One 20 to 1
lawyer Ron 20 to 1
Sun King 25 to 1
Perfect Drift 40 to 1
Seek Gold 40 to 1
Giacomo 40 to 1
Stevie Wonderboy 30 to 1
Buzzards Bay 50 to 1
Premium Tap 30 to 1
Second of June 40 to 1
Cindago 25 to 1
Bob and John 30 to 1
Dylan Thomas 12 to 1
Shirroco 10 to 1

Dylan Thomas and Shirroco must have been added this morning.

If anyone thinks the winner MUST come from LM, Bernardini, or Invasor, he or she can get almost 4-5 by taking all 3 in futures in this ratio:

If you bet $Y on Lava Man, then bet $Y on Invasor and 2.2 x $Y on Bernardini.

However, for that to be a good bet, the chance that one of those 3 wins the BCC would have to be 56% or more. The reality is, at this point there is probably LESS than a 56% chance that one of the "Big 3" will win the BC Classic. If you strongly disagree with that statement, then you should be loading up on the 3 futures above.

--Dunbar

Actually I really like those odds on Invasor and would consider them on Lava Man. They are way too low on Bernardini for my money. Considering my first mortgage payment is due on the 1st I'm not in the position to be loading up on anything, especially future bets.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Actually I really like those odds on Invasor and would consider them on Lava Man. They are way too low on Bernardini for my money. Considering my first mortgage payment is due on the 1st I'm not in the position to be loading up on anything, especially future bets.

Well, applying my 30% sidelined estimate, 13-2 today is roughly the same as 9-2 on BC day. If Invasor beats Bernardini in the JCGC, that 9-2 would look great. If he gets trounced by Bernardini in the JCGC, the 9-2 won't look so hot. Similar thoughts about Lava Man's final prep.

As a general rule, futures have to be approached with a good deal of caution and skepticism. For example, the list above equates to a 27.6% track take! And it's worse than that because the winner of the BCC might not even be on that list of horses.

That's not to say certain individual horses in that list could not provide value.

Unless I saw a number that I absolutely loved, I would wait until Pinnacle and/or TheGreek put up their futures.

--Dunbar