6/10: Belmont (4th-9th)

[hockey2315]

I usually agree that when a horse comes back at a shorter distance than he had been running prior to the lay-off that he's almost always a play against as we're supposed to believe that it's merely a prep for longer, but I think it's dangerous to come to that conclusion without considering what the horse's prior performances tell us about his potential abilities at shorter distances. Smart Enuf has shown enough early speed in his races (albeit when the pace has been kind of slow) to lead me to believe that Donk is spotting his horse where he thinks he can win - not merely where he thinks he will get a good workout. Donk's numbers with horses coming off long lay-offs and turning back on turf are a bit perplexing - he's 0-for-5 but has hit the board 4/5 times. I think you can point to that stat both in favor and against Smart Enuf's chances. If he's around 8-1 I think it's +EV to expect SE to be ready to win here.