Belmont Beyers

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Did you think the track was different for the race that just Ben won? It seemed to me that both tracks dried significantly as the day went on. The turf track that Pennington won on was not the same track that seemed to favor closers later on in the day.

What makes you think the 4 turf races weren't honestly run? Pennington won because he walked on the lead and the runner-up received an embarassingly poor ride.

Diamondrella won because she got a very good ride and a great pace setup and the favorite was taken to what was probably the worst part of the course. Gio Ponti was able to win from way back because he's good and the race featured a particularly sharp pace. The horses that turned for home 1-2are also known for having distance limitations.

Just Ben was very sharp and if anything, the main track may have become a bit more even as it dried out. However, Just Ben was capable of doing something like that, he had shown the ability at GP.

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Just Ben was very sharp and if anything, the main track may have become a bit more even as it dried out. However, Just Ben was capable of doing something like that, he had shown the ability at GP.

NT

Agreed.

[philcski]

Obviously they split the variant again multiple times (unnecessarily in my opinion), had they not the differential between Munnings and Just Ben would have been 6 points, Convocation and Gabby's Golden Gal 6 points, and the Fab Strike race should have been 8 points higher. What good are these numbers the way they're doing things these days??

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

What makes you think the 4 turf races weren't honestly run? Pennington won because he walked on the lead and the runner-up received an embarassingly poor ride.

Diamondrella won because she got a very good ride and a great pace setup and the favorite was taken to what was probably the worst part of the course. Gio Ponti was able to win from way back because he's good and the race featured a particularly sharp pace. The horses that turned for home 1-2are also known for having distance limitations.

Just Ben was very sharp and if anything, the main track may have become a bit more even as it dried out. However, Just Ben was capable of doing something like that, he had shown the ability at GP.

NT

Thanks. I think i have to watch the races again. It seemed from just watching the pennington race that it was favoring speed because it seemed like no horses were making up any ground at all.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Thanks. I think i have to watch the races again. It seemed from just watching the pennington race that it was favoring speed because it seemed like no horses were making up any ground at all.

That race featured, and I'm as big a Desormeaux detractor as any, an absolutely flawless ride. He did an excellent job taking the initiative and then once in front he did his job perfectly. It also illustrated something that NY racing fans are seeing far too often and that's that Edgar Prado (who was hesitant out of the gate to begin with) is getting even worse. He never made any effort to put Radical Sabbatical into the race, even with his far outside post. That enabled KD to take the lead, coast, and have plenty left, with some thanks to Garcia for his masterful display on Expansion.

NT

[Bobby Fischer]

I always whine about beyers, but I am going to whine about 'em again.

For the Belmont, I believe the race should have been between 105-110.
2:27.54

1. - the primary reason being the way the race was ran.
The Beyer is a final time speed figure. Often enough we see paceless Belmonts in which the riders attempt to save plenty for the finish. Not this time. We witnessed as fast a pace as you would want for 12 furlong 3yos. By running fast early they almost guaranteed a fast final time comparitive to other historical Belmonts.

2. - Comparing a recent historical Belmont = Rags to Riches and Curlin got a 107 beyer in their SLOW 2:28.75 race. Even Beyer would admit that the R2R Belmont was so slow because of the way the pace was run. The finish in that race was in fact very very fast. However a 107 for that race is a perversion of a pure final time figure into the realm of "performance figures" which the Beyer is not. 2009 Belmont's track was much faster but the track speed is NOT the primary cause of that difference. Whether or not 107 was wayyy too high for R2R's Belmont, Summer Bird should have scored higher than R2R.


You have to fudge a figure here and it has to be done with common sense, and historical comparison.
This was a relatively fast Belmont. No doubt about it. I don't care what Summer Bird got in the past.
You have to start with a very high Beyer figure and then lower it according to how fast the track was.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I always whine about beyers, but I am going to whine about 'em again.

For the Belmont, I believe the race should have been between 105-110.
2:27.54

1. - the primary reason being the way the race was ran.
The Beyer is a final time speed figure. Often enough we see paceless Belmonts in which the riders attempt to save plenty for the finish. Not this time. We witnessed as fast a pace as you would want for 12 furlong 3yos. By running fast early they almost guaranteed a fast final time comparitive to other historical Belmonts.

2. - Comparing a recent historical Belmont = Rags to Riches and Curlin got a 107 beyer in their SLOW 2:28.75 race. Even Beyer would admit that the R2R Belmont was so slow because of the way the pace was run. The finish in that race was in fact very very fast. However a 107 for that race is a perversion of a pure final time figure into the realm of "performance figures" which the Beyer is not. 2009 Belmont's track was much faster but the track speed is NOT the primary cause of that difference. Whether or not 107 was wayyy too high for R2R's Belmont, Summer Bird should have scored higher than R2R.


You have to fudge a figure here and it has to be done with common sense, and historical comparison.
This was a relatively fast Belmont. No doubt about it. I don't care what Summer Bird got in the past.
You have to start with a very high Beyer figure and then lower it according to how fast the track was.

So do you also believe that Jazil should have got about a 110 figure in his Belmont? He ran almost the same time as Summer Bird and I don't think the track was anywhere near as fast.

Beyers at seldom run distances are largely useless and every dirt Beyer has the chance it will be heavily impacted by pace. The 100 for this year is probably right while the higher figure for Rags and Curlin was one that was fudged to account for the slow pace (which is something that should either be consistently done or never done rather than done selectively).

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So do you also believe that Jazil should have got about a 110 figure in his Belmont? He ran almost the same time as Summer Bird and I don't think the track was anywhere near as fast.

Beyers at seldom run distances are largely useless and every dirt Beyer has the chance it will be heavily impacted by pace. The 100 for this year is probably right while the higher figure for Rags and Curlin was one that was fudged to account for the slow pace (which is something that should either be consistently done or never done rather than done selectively).

technically, yea.
I'd like to see a consistent approach where the horse's name is meaningless. The only thing that should matter is the final time, and how fast the track was playing.

So we should be able to compare historical belmonts if we have an accurate measure of how fast the track was each time.

100 might actually be one of the more accurate beyer scores for recent Belmonts, but then a race like R2R's should receive around a 95...
I don't believe in adjusting Beyers for pace at all.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

technically, yea.
I'd like to see a consistent approach where the horse's name is meaningless. The only thing that should matter is the final time, and how fast the track was playing.

So we should be able to compare historical belmonts if we have an accurate measure of how fast the track was each time.

100 might actually be one of the more accurate beyer scores for recent Belmonts, but then a race like R2R's should receive around a 95...
I don't believe in adjusting Beyers for pace at all.

Then I pretty much agree with you.